scholarly journals Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1691-1702 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Grams ◽  
H. Binder ◽  
S. Pfahl ◽  
N. Piaget ◽  
H. Wernli
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Warm Conveyor Belts

Abstract. In June 2013, central Europe was hit by a century flood affecting the Danube and Elbe catchments after a 4 day period of heavy precipitation and causing severe human and economic loss. In this study model analysis and observational data are investigated to reveal the key atmospheric processes that caused the heavy precipitation event. The period preceding the flood was characterised by a weather regime associated with cool and unusual wet conditions resulting from repeated Rossby wave breaking (RWB). During the event a single RWB established a reversed baroclinicity in the low to mid-troposphere in central Europe with cool air trapped over the Alps and warmer air to the north. The upper-level cut-off resulting from the RWB instigated three consecutive cyclones in eastern Europe that unusually tracked westward during the days of heavy precipitation. Continuous large-scale slantwise ascent in so-called "equatorward ascending" warm conveyor belts (WCBs) associated with these cyclones is found as the key process that caused the 4 day heavy precipitation period. Fed by moisture sources from continental evapotranspiration, these WCBs unusually ascended equatorward along the southward sloping moist isentropes. Although "equatorward ascending" WCBs are climatologically rare events, they have great potential for causing high impact weather.

scholarly journals Atmospheric processes triggering the Central European floods in June 2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 427-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Grams ◽  
H. Binder ◽  
S. Pfahl ◽  
N. Piaget ◽  
H. Wernli
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Warm Conveyor Belts

Abstract. In June 2013 Central Europe was hit by a century flood affecting the Danube and Elbe catchments after a 4 day period of heavy precipitation and causing severe human and economic loss. In this study model analysis and observational data are investigated to reveal the key atmospheric processes that caused the heavy precipitation event. The period preceeding the flood was characterised by a weather regime associated with cool and unusual wet conditions resulting from repeated Rossby wave breaking (RWB). During the event a single RWB established a reversed baroclinicity in the low to mid troposphere in Central Europe with cool air trapped over the Alps and warmer air to the North. The upper-level cut-off resulting from the RWB instigated three consecutive cyclones in eastern Europe that unusually tracked westward during the days of heavy precipitation. Continuous large-scale slantwise ascent in so-called "upside down" warm conveyor belts (WCBs) associated with these cyclones is found as the key process that caused the 4 day heavy precipitation period. Fed by moisture sources from continental evapotranspiration, these WCBs unusually ascended equatorward along the southward sloping moist isentropes. Although "upside down" WCBs are climatologically rare events, they have great potential for causing high impact weather.

scholarly journals Contrasting stable water isotope signals from convective and large-scale precipitation phases of a heavy precipitation event in southern Italy during HyMeX IOP 13: a modelling perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 7487-7506
Author(s):  
Keun-Ok Lee ◽  
Franziska Aemisegger ◽  
Stephan Pfahl ◽  
Cyrille Flamant ◽  
Jean-Lionel Lacour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Cold Front ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Water Isotopes ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Stable Water Isotopes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation Event ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract. The dynamical context and moisture transport pathways embedded in large-scale flow and associated with a heavy precipitation event (HPE) in southern Italy (SI) are investigated with the help of stable water isotopes (SWIs) based on a purely numerical framework. The event occurred during the Intensive Observation Period (IOP) 13 of the field campaign of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) on 15 and 16 October 2012, and SI experienced intense rainfall of 62.4 mm over 27 h with two precipitation phases during this event. The first one (P1) was induced by convective precipitation ahead of a cold front, while the second one (P2) was mainly associated with precipitation induced by large-scale uplift. The moisture transport and processes responsible for the HPE are analysed using a simulation with the isotope-enabled regional numerical model COSMOiso. The simulation at a horizontal grid spacing of about 7 km over a large domain (about 4300 km ×3500 km) allows the isotopes signal to be distinguished due to local processes or large-scale advection. Backward trajectory analyses based on this simulation show that the air parcels arriving in SI during P1 originate from the North Atlantic and descend within an upper-level trough over the north-western Mediterranean. The descending air parcels reach elevations below 1 km over the sea and bring dry and isotopically depleted air (median δ18O ≤-25 ‰, water vapour mixing ratio q≤2 g kg−1) close to the surface, which induces strong surface evaporation. These air parcels are rapidly enriched in SWIs (δ18O ≥-14 ‰) and moistened (q≥8 g kg−1) over the Tyrrhenian Sea by taking up moisture from surface evaporation and potentially from evaporation of frontal precipitation. Thereafter, the SWI-enriched low-level air masses arriving upstream of SI are convectively pumped to higher altitudes, and the SWI-depleted moisture from higher levels is transported towards the surface within the downdrafts ahead of the cold front over SI, producing a large amount of convective precipitation in SI. Most of the moisture processes (i.e. evaporation, convective mixing) related to the HPE take place during the 18 h before P1 over SI. A period of 4 h later, during the second precipitation phase P2, the air parcels arriving over SI mainly originate from north Africa. The strong cyclonic flow around the eastward-moving upper-level trough induces the advection of a SWI-enriched African moisture plume towards SI and leads to large-scale uplift of the warm air mass along the cold front. This lifts moist and SWI-enriched air (median δ18O ≥-16 ‰, median q≥6 g kg−1) and leads to gradual rain out of the air parcels over Italy. Large-scale ascent in the warm sector ahead of the cold front takes place during the 72 h preceding P2 in SI. This work demonstrates how stable water isotopes can yield additional insights into the variety of thermodynamic mechanisms occurring at the mesoscale and synoptic scale during the formation of a HPE.

scholarly journals Contrasting stable water isotope signals from convective and large-scale precipitation phases of a heavy precipitation event in Southern Italy during HyMeX IOP 13

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keun-Ok Lee ◽  
Franziska Aemisegger ◽  
Stephan Pfahl ◽  
Cyrille Flamant ◽  
Jean-Lionel Lacour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Cold Front ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Heavy Precipitation Event ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Surface Evaporation ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract. The dynamical context and moisture transport pathways associated with a heavy precipitation event (HPE) in Southern Italy (SI) are investigated with the help of stable water isotopes (SWIs). The event occurred during the intensive observation period (IOP) 13 of the field campaign of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) on 15 and 16 October 2012. SI experienced intense rainfall of 62.4 mm over 27 hr with two precipitation phases during this event. The first one (P1) was induced by convective precipitation linked to a frontal feature, while the second one (P2) was mainly associated with precipitation induced by large-scale uplift. The moisture transport and processes responsible for the HPE are analysed using a simulation with the isotope-enabled regional numerical model COSMOiso. Backward trajectory analyses based on this simulation show that the air parcels arriving in SI during P1 originate from the North Atlantic, and descend within an upper-level trough over the north-western Mediterranean. The descending air parcels reach elevations below 1 km over the sea and bring dry and isotopically depleted air (median δ18O ≤ −25 ‰, water vapour mixing ratio q ≤ 2 g kg−1) close to the surface, which induces strong surface evaporation. These air parcels are rapidly enriched in SWI (δ18O ≥ −14 ‰) and moistened (q ≥ 8 g kg−1) over the Tyrrhenian Sea by taking up moisture from surface evaporation and potentially from evaporation of frontal precipitation. Thereafter, the SWI-enriched low-level air masses arriving upstream of SI are convectively pumped to higher altitudes, and the SWI-depleted moisture from higher levels is transported towards the surface within the downdrafts ahead of the cold front over SI, producing a large amount of precipitation of convective nature in SI. Most of the moist processes (i.e. evaporation, convective mixing) related to the HPE take place during the 18 hours preceding the occurrence of P1 over SI. Four hours later, during the second precipitation phase P2, the air parcels arriving over SI mainly originate from North Africa. The strong cyclonic flow around the eastward moving upper-level trough induces the advection of a moist and SWI-enriched African plume towards SI, and leads to large-scale uplift of the warm African air mass along the cold front. This brings moist and SWI-enriched air masses (median δ18O ≥ −18 ‰, median q ≥ 6 g kg−1) to higher altitudes and leads to gradual rain out of the air parcels over Italy. Large-scale ascent in the warm sector ahead of the cold front takes place during the 72 hours preceding P2 in SI. This work sheds light on the variety of thermodynamic mechanisms occurring at the meso- and synoptic scales and leading to two distinct precipitation phases of a HPE over the densely populated SI region.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Northeastern Vietnam in 2015 and Its Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 1041-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roderick van der Linden ◽  
Andreas H. Fink ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
Tan Phan-Van
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Quang Ninh

Abstract A record-breaking rainfall event occurred in northeastern Vietnam in late July–early August 2015. The coastal region in Quang Ninh Province was hit severely, with station rainfall sums in the range of 1000–1500 mm. The heavy rainfall led to flooding and landslides, which resulted in an estimated economic loss of $108 million (U.S. dollars) and 32 fatalities. Using a multitude of data sources and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, the synoptic–dynamic development and practical predictability of the event is investigated in detail for the 4-day period from 1200 UTC 25 July to 1200 UTC 29 July 2015, during which the major portion of the rainfall was observed. A slowly moving upper-level subtropical trough and the associated surface low in the northern Gulf of Tonkin promoted sustained moisture convergence and convection over northeastern Vietnam. The humidity was advected in a moisture transport band lying across the Indochina Peninsula and emanating from a tropical storm over the Bay of Bengal. Analyses of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts clearly showed a sudden emergence of the predictability of the extreme event at lead times of 3 days that was associated with the correct forecasts of the intensity and location of the subtropical trough in the 51 ensemble members. Thus, the Quang Ninh event is a good example in which the predictability of tropical convection arises from large-scale synoptic forcing; in the present case it was due to a tropical–extratropical interaction that has not been documented before for the region and season.

scholarly journals Organization of convective ascents in a warm conveyor belt

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Blanchard ◽  
Florian Pantillon ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau ◽  
Julien Delanoë
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Isolated Cells ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are warm, moist airstreams of extratropical cyclones leading to widespread clouds and heavy precipitation, where associated diabatic processes can influence midlatitude dynamics. Although WCBs are traditionally seen as continuous slantwise ascents, recent studies have emphasized the presence of embedded convection and the production of mesoscale bands of negative potential vorticity (PV), the impact of which on large-scale dynamics is still debated. Here, detailed cloud and wind measurements obtained with airborne Doppler radar provide unique information on the WCB of the Stalactite cyclone on 2 October 2016 during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment. The measurements are complemented by a convection-permitting simulation, enabling online Lagrangian trajectories and 3-D objects clustering. The simulation reproduces well the mesoscale structure of the cyclone shown by satellite infrared observations, while the location of trajectories rising by 150 hPa during a relatively short 12 h window matches the WCB region expected from high clouds. One third of those trajectories, categorized as fast ascents, further reach a 100 hPa (2h)−1 threshold during their ascent and follow the cyclonic flow mainly at lower levels. In agreement with radar observations, convective updrafts are found in the WCB and are characterized by moderate reflectivity values up to 20 dBz and vertical velocities above 0.3 m s−1. Updraft objects and fast ascents consistently show three main types of convection in the WCB: (i) frontal convection along the surface cold front and the western edge of the low-level jet; (ii) banded convection at about 2 km altitude along the eastern edge of the low-level jet; (iii) mid-level convection below the upper-level jet. Mesoscale PV dipoles with strong positive and negative values are located in the vicinity of convective ascents and appear to accelerate both low-level and upper-level jets. Both convective ascents and negative PV organize into structures with coherent shape, location and evolution, thus suggesting a dynamical linkage. The results show that convection embedded in WCBs occurs in a coherent and organized manner rather than as isolated cells.

scholarly journals Barotropic Regeneration of Upper-Level Synoptic Disturbances in Different Configurations of the Zonal Weather Regime

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (10) ◽  
pp. 3159-3178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gwendal Rivière
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Deformation Field ◽  
Regeneration Process ◽  
Barotropic Model ◽  
Weather Regime ◽  
The North ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Composite Maps ◽  
Large Scale Flow

Barotropic dynamics of upper-tropospheric midlatitude disturbances evolving in different configurations of the zonal weather regime (i.e., in different zonal-like large-scale flows) were studied using observational analyses and barotropic model experiments. The contraction stage of upper-level disturbances that follows their elongation stage leads to an increase of eddy kinetic energy that is called the barotropic regeneration process in this text. This barotropic mechanism is studied through notions of barotropic critical regions (BtCRs) and effective deformation that have been introduced in a previous paper. The effective deformation field is equal to the difference between the square of the large-scale deformation magnitude and the square of the large-scale vorticity. Regions where the effective deformation is positive correspond to regions where the large-scale flow tends to strongly stretch synoptic disturbances. A BtCR is an area separating two large-scale regions of positive effective deformation, one located upstream and on the south side of the jet and the other downstream and on the north side. Such a region presents a discontinuity in the orientation of the dilatation axes and is a potential area where the barotropic regeneration process may occur. Winter days presenting a zonal weather regime in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis dataset are decomposed, via a partitioning algorithm, into different configurations of the effective deformation field at 300 hPa. A six-cluster partition is obtained. Composite maps of the barotropic generation rate for each cluster exhibit a succession of negative and positive values on both sides of the BtCRs. It confirms statistically that the barotropic regeneration mechanism occurs preferentially about BtCRs. Numerical experiments using a forced barotropic model on the sphere are performed. Each experiment consists of adding a synoptic-scale perturbation to one of the zonal-like jet configurations found in observations, which is kept fixed with time. The combined effects of the effective deformation and nonlinearities are shown to be crucial to reproduce the barotropic regeneration process about BtCRs.

scholarly journals The Ancient City of Babylon

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (40) ◽  
pp. 617-656
Author(s):  
Mohammed S. Mahan ◽  
Ghassan Muslim Hamza
Keyword(s):  
Historical Development ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
Large City ◽  
Aerial Photos ◽  
The North ◽  
City Gates ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Materials Used ◽  
The City

       Babylon during Nebuchadnezzar II (604-562 BC) was a great city. It had been a large city since Old Babylonian times, but Nebuchadnezzar’s expansion of the city and large-scale rebuilding of important buildings with good baked brick instead of the traditional unbaked mudbrick created something exceptional. Babylon now was larger than Nineveh had been and larger than any of the cities in the known world. The political and economic base for this development was of course that it was the centre of the Neo-Babylonian empire created by Nebuchadnezzar’s father Nabopolassar (625–605 BC) and succeeding the Neo Assyrian empire as the main political entity in the Middle East.         An attempt for the first time to bring together the main results of the German excavations in Babylon with the main results from the Iraqi excavations there and thereby make use of the available cuneiform documentation and a selected use of the best of the classical tradition. With the help of a GIS software (QGIS) and a BIM program (ArchiCAD) the use of satellite images and aerial photos combined with inspection on the site, the historical development of the site has been studied and a digital research model of Babylon for different periods of the city’s history has been created.          Only main buildings and constructions have been considered and placed in the appropriate historical and archaeological context. Part 1 includes some information about the historical development of buildings and nature in Babylon, the rivers and groundwater in Baybylon, as well as basics about the building materials used in Babylon. Part 2 discuss the city walls and city gates, introductory matters about the history, excavation and other documentations of the walls and gates. The chapter also includes presentation of the walls and gates during Nabopolassar followed by a detailed discussion of the walls and gates during Nebuchadnezzar. The Ištar gate and the area around it with the different levels and the upper level glazed decoration have been treated separately. Detailed interpretations about the palaces, development of the main traditional South Palace and the new constructed North are discussed in part 3. Reasonable suggestions for the Hanging Gardens in the North Palace have be provided.          The temples are discussed in part 4 detailing the Marduk temple and the zikkurrat. The historical development of the four temples reconstructed on the site in Babylon on their old foundations, i.e. Nabû, Ištar, Ašratum, and Ninmaḫ temples, is discussed with indication which levels have been used for the reconstructions. The historical development of the other excavated temples, i.e. the Ninurta and Išḫara temples, are discussed in a similar way. Attention will be paid to the remains of wall decorations in the temples.  

scholarly journals The Dynamic and Thermodynamic Structures Associated with a Series of Heavy Precipitation Events over China during January 2008

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1124-1141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Shi ◽  
Xiangde Xu ◽  
Chungu Lu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Chinese History ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Ice Storms ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Upper Level Jet ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In the winter of 2008, China experienced once-in-50-yr (or once in 100 yr for some regions) snow and ice storms. These storms brought huge socio economical impacts upon the Chinese people and government. Although the storms had been predicted, their severity and persistence were largely underestimated. In this study, these cases were revisited and comprehensive analyses of the storms’ dynamic and thermodynamic structures were conducted. These snowstorms were also compared with U.S. east coast snowstorms. The results from this study will provide insights on how to improve forecasts for these kinds of snowstorms. The analyses demonstrated that the storms exhibited classic patterns of large-scale circulation common to these types of snowstorms. However, several physical processes were found to be unique and thought to have played crucial roles in intensifying and prolonging China’s great snowstorms of 2008. These include a subtropical high over the western Pacific, an upper-level jet stream, and temperature and moisture inversions. The combined effects of these dynamic and thermodynamic structures are responsible for the development of the storms into one of the most disastrous events in Chinese history.

scholarly journals Large-scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. e497-e517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Hofstätter ◽  
Annemarie Lexer ◽  
Markus Homann ◽  
Günter Blöschl
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Cyclone Track

scholarly journals A Climatology of Subtropical Cyclones in the South Atlantic

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7328-7340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenni L. Evans ◽  
Aviva Braun
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Hybrid Structure ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
The South ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
The North ◽  
Brazil Current ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Upper Level

A 50-yr climatology (1957–2007) of subtropical cyclones (STs) in the South Atlantic is developed and analyzed. A subtropical cyclone is a hybrid structure (upper-level cold core and lower-level warm core) with associated surface gale-force winds. The tendency for warm season development of North Atlantic STs has resulted in these systems being confused as tropical cyclones (TCs). In fact, North Atlantic STs are a regular source of the incipient vortices leading to North Atlantic TC genesis. In 2004, Hurricane Catarina developed in the South Atlantic and made landfall in Brazil. A TC system had been previously unobserved in the South Atlantic, so the incidence of Catarina highlighted the lack of an ST climatology for the region to provide a context for the likelihood of future systems. Sixty-three South Atlantic STs are documented over the 50-yr period analyzed in this climatology. In contrast to the North Atlantic, South Atlantic STs occur relatively uniformly throughout the year; however, their preferred location of genesis and mechanisms for this genesis do exhibit some seasonal variability. Rossby wave breaking was identified as the mechanism for the ST vortex initiation for North Atlantic STs. A subset of South Atlantic STs forms via this mechanism, however, an additional mechanism for ST genesis is identified here: lee cyclogenesis downstream of the Andes in the Brazil Current region—an area favorable for convection. This formation mechanism is similar to development of type-2 east coast lows in the Tasman Sea off eastern Australia.

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