scholarly journals Ensemble Projection of the Sea Level Rise Impact on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Coastal Bangladesh

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansur Ali Jisan ◽  
Shaowu Bao ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Coastal Bangladesh ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present day inundation scenario, track of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, that’s why a probable range of future change in inundated area was calculated by taking in to consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that, the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % higher than the present day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 meter occurs during the mid-21st century climate scenario. Similar to that, an increasing trend was found for the end of the 21st century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 meter, the inundated area would become 53 % higher than the present day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for the changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 21 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr in Barisal station if a Sea Level Rise of 0.26 meter occurs at the middle of the 21st century. Similar to that, an increase of 37 % was found in storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 meter in this location for the end of the 21st century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 meters in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500–3750 km2 whereas for present day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and extent of inundated area.

scholarly journals Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 351-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansur Ali Jisan ◽  
Shaowu Bao ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and the extent of the inundated area.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1559-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gael Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in Lesser Antilles-Case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gaël Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges cause great threats to lives, properties, and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazard with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique, under present climate or considering a potential sea-level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge, up to 100 % in some cases. The non-linear interactions of sea level rise with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique, but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles, and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals Impact of Human Intervention and Sea Level Rise on Water-Logging Scenarios inside Polders-24 And 25 of Bangladesh

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 73-83
Author(s):  
Jamal M Haider ◽  
Haque M Aminul ◽  
Hossain Md Jahid ◽  
Haque Anisul
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
South Central ◽  
Water Logging ◽  
Natural Man ◽  
The Impact

Coastal region of Bangladesh possesses a fragile ecosystem and is exposed to hazards like cyclones, floods, storm surges, and water-logging. A detail understanding on the impact of water-logging due to various natural, man-made and climate change scenarios is still lacking. Considering this research gap, the present research is aimed to study impacts of these scenarios inside polders-24 and 25 which are situated on the western part of the coastal region. In this Study as natural scenario, sedimentation in the Hari River; as man-made scenario, new polders in the south-central region and as SLR scenario, an extreme sea level rise of 1.48m are considered. Long-term satellite images are analyzed, and numerical model is applied in the study area. The result shows that water-logging is more acute inside polder-25 compared to polder-24. Sedimentation in Hari River aggravates the water-logging condition. Dredging in Hari River does improve the situation. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 73-83

Analysis of Flood Vulnerability and Transit Availability with a Changing Climate in Harris County, Texas

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (6) ◽  
pp. 258-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua A. Pulcinella ◽  
Arne M. E. Winguth ◽  
Diane Jones Allen ◽  
Niveditha Dasa Gangadhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Harris County ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Block Groups ◽  
The Impact

Hurricanes and other extreme precipitation events can have devastating effects on population and infrastructure that can create problems for emergency responses and evacuation. Projected climate change and associated global warming may lead to an increase in extreme weather events that results in greater inundation from storm surges or massive precipitation. For example, record flooding during Hurricane Katrina or, more recently, during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, led to many people being cut off from aid and unable to evacuate. This study focuses on the impact of severe weather under climate change for areas of Harris County, TX that are susceptible to flooding either by storm surge or extreme rainfall and evaluates the transit demand and availability in those areas. Future risk of flooding in Harris County was assessed by GIS mapping of the 100-year and 500-year FEMA floodplains and most extreme category 5 storm tide and global sea level rise. The flood maps have been overlaid with population demographics and transit accessibility to determine vulnerable populations in need of transit during a disaster. It was calculated that 70% of densely populated census block groups are located within the floodplains, including a disproportional amount of low-income block groups. The results also show a lack of transit availability in many areas susceptible to extreme storm surge exaggerated with sea level rise. Further study of these areas to improve transit infrastructure and evacuation strategies will improve the outcomes of extreme weather events in the future.

scholarly journals An Estimate of Increases in Storm Surge Risk to Property from Sea Level Rise in the First Half of the Twenty-First Century

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ross N. Hoffman ◽  
Peter Dailey ◽  
Susanna Hopsch ◽  
Rui M. Ponte ◽  
Katherine Quinn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Full Range ◽  
High Tide ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Global Signal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Zip Code

Abstract Sea level is rising as the World Ocean warms and ice caps and glaciers melt. Published estimates based on data from satellite altimeters, beginning in late 1992, suggest that the global mean sea level has been rising on the order of 3 mm yr−1. Local processes, including ocean currents and land motions due to a variety of causes, modulate the global signal spatially and temporally. These local signals can be much larger than the global signal, and especially so on annual or shorter time scales. Even increases on the order of 10 cm in sea level can amplify the already devastating losses that occur when a hurricane-driven storm surge coincides with an astronomical high tide. To quantify the sensitivity of property risk to increasing sea level, changes in expected annual losses to property along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are calculated as follows. First, observed trends in sea level rise from tide gauges are extrapolated to the year 2030, and these changes are interpolated to all coastal locations. Then a 10 000-yr catalog of simulated hurricanes is used to define critical wind parameters for each event. These wind parameters then drive a parametric time-evolving storm surge model that accounts for bathymetry, coastal geometry, surface roughness, and the phase of the astronomical tide. The impact of the maximum storm surge height on a comprehensive inventory of commercial and residential property is then calculated, using engineering models that take into account the characteristics of the full range of construction types. Average annual losses projected to the year 2030 are presented for regions and key states and are normalized by aggregate property value on a zip code by zip code basis. Comparisons to the results of a control run reflecting the risk today quantify the change in risk per dollar of property on a percentage basis. Increases in expected losses due to the effect of sea level rise alone vary by region, with increases of 20% or more being common. Further sensitivity tests quantify the impact on the risk of sea level rise plus additional factors, such as changes in hurricane frequency and intensity as a result of rising sea surface temperatures.

Doubling of future Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt revealed by the new CMIP6 high-emission scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
Charlotte Lang ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Impact

<p>Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff<br>during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional<br>climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from<br>global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and<br>sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison<br>project have revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models.<br>However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS<br>surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS<br>melt during the 21st century almost doubles when using CMIP6 forcing compared to the<br>previous CMIP5 model ensemble, despite an equal global radiative forcing of +8.5 W/m2<br>in 2100 in both RCP8.5 and SSP58.5 scenarios. The total GrIS sea level rise contribution<br>from surface melt in our high-resolution (15 km) projections is 17.8 cm in SSP58.5, 7.9 cm<br>more than in our RCP8.5 simulations, despite the same radiative forcing. We identify a<br>+1.7°C greater Arctic amplification in the CMIP6 ensemble as the main driver behind the<br>presented doubling of future GrIS sea level rise contribution</p>

scholarly journals Accounting for DEM Error in Sea Level Rise Assessment within Riverine Regions; Case Study from the Shatt Al-Arab River Region

Environments ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Ali K. M. Al-Nasrawi ◽  
Ameen A. Kadhim ◽  
Ashton M. Shortridge ◽  
Brian G. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Shuttle Radar Topography Mission ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
River Region ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Inundation Model

Global elevation datasets such as the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) are the best available terrain data in many parts of the world. Consequently, SRTM is widely used for understanding the risk of coastal inundation due to climate change-induced sea level rise. However, SRTM elevations are prone to error, giving rise to uncertainty in the quality of the inundation projections. This study investigated the error propagation model for the Shatt al-Arab River region (SARR) to understand the impact of DEM error on an inundation model in this sensitive, low-lying coastal region. The analysis involved three stages. First, a multiple regression model, parameterized from the Mississippi River delta region, was used to generate an expected DEM error surface for the SARR. This surface was subtracted from the SRTM DEM for the SARR to adjust it. Second, residuals from this model were simulated for the SARR. Modelled residuals were subtracted from the adjusted SRTM to produce 50 DEM realizations capturing potential elevation variation. Third, the DEM realizations were each used in a geospatial “bathtub” inundation model to estimate flooding area in the region given 1 m of sea level rise. Across all realizations, the area predicted to flood covered about 50% of the entire region, while predicted flooding using the raw SRTM covered only about 28%, indicating substantial underprediction of the affected area when error was not accounted for. This study can be an applicable approach within such environments worldwide.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrius Sabūnas ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Nobuki Fukui ◽  
Tomoya Shimura ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
The Impact

The Pacific region consists of numerous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), one of the most vulnerable to flooding caused by compound effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storms. Nevertheless, individual studies regarding the impact assessment for SIDS, such as the low-lying Kiribati, remain scarce. This study assessed the impact of climate change-induced storm surge and SLR compounding effects on Tarawa, the most populous atoll of Kiribati, the largest coral atoll nation. It projected the impact using a combined dynamic surge and SLR model based on the IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios and 1/100 and 1/50 years return period storm events. This approach allows estimating the inundation scope and the consecutive exposed population by the end of the 21st century. The results of this study show that the pace of SLR is pivotal for Tarawa, as the sea level rise alone can claim more than 50% of the territory and pose a threat to over 60% of the population under the most intense greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Furthermore, most coasts on the lagoon side are particularly vulnerable. In contrast, the contribution of extreme events is generally minimal due to low wind speeds and the absence of tropical cyclones (TC). Despite this, it is clear the compound effects are critical and may inescapably bring drastic changes to the atoll nations by the end of this century. The impact assessment in this study draws attention to the social impact of climate change on SIDS, most notably atoll islands, and evaluates their adaptation potential.

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