scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in Lesser Antilles-Case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gaël Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges cause great threats to lives, properties, and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazard with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique, under present climate or considering a potential sea-level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge, up to 100 % in some cases. The non-linear interactions of sea level rise with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique, but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles, and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1559-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gael Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

TOWARDS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF CONTINUOUS COASTAL VULNERABILITY INDEX IN MALAYSIA: A REVIEW

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gill J. Ainee ◽  
A.M. Anwar ◽  
S. Omar K
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability ◽  
Pilot Projects ◽  
The West ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability Index ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Implementation Approach

Climate change has brought about many threats to the ecosystem by inducing natural hazards, particularly sea level rise. Coastal areas then are subjected to many adverse effects of sea level rise, hence posing a risk to the safety of the coastal population, resources and assets. As part of the mitigation and adaptation measures against these effects, the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) was implemented by many coastal regions. The CVI is an index-based tool to map the risks related to coastal changes. In Malaysia, the practice of CVI is still in its initial stages. Whereby, the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) Malaysia had earlier carried out two pilot projects on CVI. The first is located at Tanjung Piai and the second at the west coast of Pulau Langkawi. This paper reviews the definition and concept of CVI. An alternative implementation approach of CVI in Malaysia is also discussed.

Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from expert assessment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Horton ◽  
Nicole Khan ◽  
Niamh Cahill ◽  
Janice Lee ◽  
Tim Shaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Climate Change Responses ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit expert judgments from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise and its uncertainties, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (at least 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely (i.e. an exceedance probability of 17%) range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Regional Climate Change on the Infrastructure and Operability of Railway Transport

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-195
Author(s):  
Evgeniia A. Kostianaia ◽  
Andrey G. Kostianoy ◽  
Mikhail A. Scheglov ◽  
Aleksey I. Karelov ◽  
Alexander S. Vasileisky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
The Sea Of Japan ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Sea Level

Abstract This article considers various aspects of the impact of climate change on the railway infrastructure and operations. A brief international overview and the importance of this issue for Russia are given. Temperature effects, permafrost thawing, strong winds, floods and sea level rise, long-term effects, and adaptation measures are discussed. In conclusion, the authors give several recommendations on further research in this area, and highlight that special attention should be given to the areas in the Russian Federation which already face or might soon experience damage from storm events or flooding and sea level rise, namely Kaliningrad Region on the Baltic Sea, the area between Tuapse and Adler in Krasnodar Region on the Black Sea, and on Sakhalin Island from the side of the Sea of Japan.

Analysis of Flood Vulnerability and Transit Availability with a Changing Climate in Harris County, Texas

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (6) ◽  
pp. 258-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua A. Pulcinella ◽  
Arne M. E. Winguth ◽  
Diane Jones Allen ◽  
Niveditha Dasa Gangadhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Harris County ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Block Groups ◽  
The Impact

Hurricanes and other extreme precipitation events can have devastating effects on population and infrastructure that can create problems for emergency responses and evacuation. Projected climate change and associated global warming may lead to an increase in extreme weather events that results in greater inundation from storm surges or massive precipitation. For example, record flooding during Hurricane Katrina or, more recently, during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, led to many people being cut off from aid and unable to evacuate. This study focuses on the impact of severe weather under climate change for areas of Harris County, TX that are susceptible to flooding either by storm surge or extreme rainfall and evaluates the transit demand and availability in those areas. Future risk of flooding in Harris County was assessed by GIS mapping of the 100-year and 500-year FEMA floodplains and most extreme category 5 storm tide and global sea level rise. The flood maps have been overlaid with population demographics and transit accessibility to determine vulnerable populations in need of transit during a disaster. It was calculated that 70% of densely populated census block groups are located within the floodplains, including a disproportional amount of low-income block groups. The results also show a lack of transit availability in many areas susceptible to extreme storm surge exaggerated with sea level rise. Further study of these areas to improve transit infrastructure and evacuation strategies will improve the outcomes of extreme weather events in the future.

scholarly journals An Estimate of Increases in Storm Surge Risk to Property from Sea Level Rise in the First Half of the Twenty-First Century

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ross N. Hoffman ◽  
Peter Dailey ◽  
Susanna Hopsch ◽  
Rui M. Ponte ◽  
Katherine Quinn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Full Range ◽  
High Tide ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Global Signal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Zip Code

Abstract Sea level is rising as the World Ocean warms and ice caps and glaciers melt. Published estimates based on data from satellite altimeters, beginning in late 1992, suggest that the global mean sea level has been rising on the order of 3 mm yr−1. Local processes, including ocean currents and land motions due to a variety of causes, modulate the global signal spatially and temporally. These local signals can be much larger than the global signal, and especially so on annual or shorter time scales. Even increases on the order of 10 cm in sea level can amplify the already devastating losses that occur when a hurricane-driven storm surge coincides with an astronomical high tide. To quantify the sensitivity of property risk to increasing sea level, changes in expected annual losses to property along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are calculated as follows. First, observed trends in sea level rise from tide gauges are extrapolated to the year 2030, and these changes are interpolated to all coastal locations. Then a 10 000-yr catalog of simulated hurricanes is used to define critical wind parameters for each event. These wind parameters then drive a parametric time-evolving storm surge model that accounts for bathymetry, coastal geometry, surface roughness, and the phase of the astronomical tide. The impact of the maximum storm surge height on a comprehensive inventory of commercial and residential property is then calculated, using engineering models that take into account the characteristics of the full range of construction types. Average annual losses projected to the year 2030 are presented for regions and key states and are normalized by aggregate property value on a zip code by zip code basis. Comparisons to the results of a control run reflecting the risk today quantify the change in risk per dollar of property on a percentage basis. Increases in expected losses due to the effect of sea level rise alone vary by region, with increases of 20% or more being common. Further sensitivity tests quantify the impact on the risk of sea level rise plus additional factors, such as changes in hurricane frequency and intensity as a result of rising sea surface temperatures.

scholarly journals Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 351-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansur Ali Jisan ◽  
Shaowu Bao ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and the extent of the inundated area.

scholarly journals CASE STUDY ON DESIGNING ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR STORM SURGE DISASTERS ALONG INNERMOST COAST OF ARIAKE SEA, JAPAN

2018 ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Yoshihiko Ide ◽  
Noriaki Hashimoto ◽  
Masaru Yamashiro ◽  
Mitsuyoshi Kodama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Collaborative Research ◽  
Ariake Sea ◽  
Adaptation Measures

Based on the Japanese governmental adaptation plan against the influence of climate change, the local governments promptly have to design such measures. We focused on the vulnerability of storm surge disasters along the innermost coast, Saga Plain, of the Ariake Sea (Fig.1a) since most of the area is below sea level. We present our experiences of the attempts to design adaptation measures from various approaches as collaborative research with members of Saga Prefecture. Figure 1b shows a meeting with members of the prefecture.

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