Supplementary material to "Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time: The availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19"

Abstract. The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, as well as governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat.

Download Full-text

Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time: The availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19

10.5194/nhess-2021-177 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Giuliano Di Baldassarre ◽

Elena Mondino ◽

Maria Rusca ◽

Emanuele Del Giudice ◽

Johanna Mård ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Cognitive Process ◽

Public Perceptions ◽

Infection Rates ◽

Availability Heuristic ◽

Multiple Hazards ◽

Country Differences ◽

Cross Country ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4,000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, and governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change and they rank it as the most likely threat.

Download Full-text

The Army and the Spread of Roman Citizenship

The Journal of Roman Studies ◽

10.1017/s0075435819000662 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 109 ◽

pp. 27-69

Author(s):

Myles Lavan

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Analytical Method ◽

Family Formation ◽

Quantitative Model ◽

Length Of Service ◽

Supplementary Appendix ◽

Recent Advances ◽

Supplementary Material ◽

Over Time

AbstractThis paper draws on recent advances in our knowledge (much of it owed to the proliferation of military diplomas) and a new analytical method to quantify the number of soldiers and their children who received Roman citizenship between 14 and 212 c.e. Although significant uncertainties remain, these can be quantified and turn out to be small relative to the overall scale of enfranchisement. The paper begins by reviewing what is known about grants of citizenship to soldiers, with particular attention to the remaining uncertainties, before presenting a quantitative model of the phenomenon. The total number of beneficiaries was somewhere in the region 0.9–1.6 million — significantly lower than previous estimates have suggested. It also emerges that the rate of enfranchisement varied substantially over time, in line with significant changes in manpower, length of service (and hence the number of recruits and discharged veterans) and the rate of family formation among soldiers. The Supplementary Material available online (https://doi.org/10.1017/S0075435819000662) contains a database of military diplomas (Supplementary Appendix 1), a mathematical model of enfranchisement implemented in MS Excel (Supplementary Appendix 2), a description of the model (Supplementary Appendix 3A) and a derivation of the model of attrition across service cohorts in Fig. 6 (Supplementary Appendix 3B).

Download Full-text

Hunters and Non-hunters Chronic Wasting Disease Risk Perceptions over Time

Society & Natural Resources ◽

10.1080/08941920.2018.1463424 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 31 (12) ◽

pp. 1379-1388 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jerry J. Vaske ◽

Craig A. Miller

Keyword(s):

Risk Perceptions ◽

Chronic Wasting Disease ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Wasting Disease ◽

Over Time

Download Full-text

Fluids sources in basement-hosted unconformity-uranium ore systems: tourmaline chemistry and boron isotopes from the Patterson Lake corridor deposits, Canada

Geochemistry Exploration Environment Analysis ◽

10.1144/geochem2021-037 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. geochem2021-037

Author(s):

E.G. Potter ◽

C.J. Kelly ◽

W.J. Davis ◽

G. Chi ◽

S-Y. Jiang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Shear Zones ◽

Isotopic Signature ◽

Strong Interactions ◽

Content Type ◽

B Values ◽

Isotopic Signatures ◽

Link Type ◽

Basement Rocks ◽

Supplementary Material ◽

Over Time

The Patterson Lake corridor is a new uranium district located on the southwestern margin of the Athabasca Basin. Known resources extend almost one kilometer below the unconformity in graphite- and sulfide-bearing shear zones within highly altered metamorphic rocks. Despite different host rocks and greater depths below the unconformity, alteration assemblages (chlorite, illite, kaolinite, tourmaline and hematite), ore grades and textures are typical of unconformity-related deposits. This alteration includes at least three generations of Mg-rich tourmaline (magnesio-foitite). The boron isotopic composition of magnesio-foitite varies with generation: the earliest generation only observed in shallow samples from the Triple R deposit (Tur 1) contain the heaviest isotopic signature (δ11B ≈ +26 to +19 ‰), whereas subsequent generations (Tur 2, Tur 3) yield lighter and more homogeneous isotopic signatures (δ11B ≈ +17.5 to +19.9 ‰). These results are consistent with precipitation from low temperature, NaCl- and CaCl2-rich brine(s) derived from an isotopically heavy boron source (e.g. evaporated seawater) that interacted with tourmaline and silicates in the basement rocks and/or fluids derived from depth (with low δ11B values). The lower δ11B values in paragenetically later magnesio-foitite reflect greater contributions of basement-derived boron over time whereas minor compositional variations reflect local metal sources (e.g. Cr, V, Ti) and evolving fluid chemistry (decreasing Na and Ca, increasing Mg) over time. The δ11B and chemical variation in magnesio-foitite over time reinforce the strong interactions with basement rocks in these systems while supporting incursion of basinal brines well below the unconformity contact.Thematic collection: This article is part of the Uranium Fluid Pathways collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/uranium-fluid-pathwaysSupplementary material:https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5727555

Download Full-text

Deliberative and intuitive risk perceptions as predictors of colorectal cancer screening over time

Journal of Behavioral Medicine ◽

10.1007/s10865-015-9667-9 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 39 (1) ◽

pp. 65-74 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Jennifer L. Hay ◽

Marcel Ramos ◽

Yuelin Li ◽

Susan Holland ◽

Debra Brennessel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Colorectal Cancer ◽

Cancer Screening ◽

Colorectal Cancer Screening ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Over Time

Download Full-text

The tenacity of trust in petrochemical communities: Reckoning with risk on the Fawley Waterside (1997–2019)

Environment and Planning E Nature and Space ◽

10.1177/25148486211045367 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 251484862110453

Author(s):

David Brown ◽

Alice Mah ◽

Gordon Walker

Keyword(s):

Risk Perception ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Social Trust ◽

Oil Refinery ◽

Toxic Exposure ◽

Perceptions Of Risk ◽

Individual Interviews ◽

Documentary Analysis ◽

Local Risk ◽

Over Time

Around the world, people living close to polluting industries have different perceptions of the risks of toxic exposure, ranging from anger to acceptance to denial. We draw attention to a case with relatively high levels of social trust, but also relatively high levels of risk perception: the communities living adjacent to the Fawley (UK) oil refinery and petrochemical complex, a site that has been operated by Esso since the early 1950s. Our findings are based on a novel comparative analysis of two qualitative studies of local risk perceptions in Fawley conducted more than two decades apart in 1997 and 2019, incorporating focus group and individual interviews with residents, alongside documentary analysis and stakeholder interviews. Perceptions of risk and trust in the local polluting industry have fluctuated over the years, with unease never far from the surface as industrial employment has slowly contracted. Yet overall, the picture in 2019 was not too dissimilar from that in 1997: while community–industry relations were strained amidst periodic risk incidents and a sense of decline, a cautious sense of trust in the polluting enterprise had endured, based on a delicate balance of heritage, risk, and recognition. We draw attention to the residents’ careful reckoning with risks over time and the tenacity of social trust as an act of negotiation that took risk into account but also included other important factors such as recognition and reciprocity. Local risk perceptions in Fawley are closely bound up with the residents’ shared industrial heritage and enduring perceptions of Esso as a ‘good neighbour’. Our longitudinal analysis allowed us to reflect on changes over time in Fawley, providing greater temporal depth to the risk perception literature.

Download Full-text

Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-659 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Elena Ridolfi ◽

Frederike Albrecht ◽

Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Keyword(s):

Risk Perception ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Cultural Theory ◽

Hydrological Modelling ◽

Ideal Types ◽

Risk Monitoring ◽

Awareness Raising ◽

Flood Losses ◽

Over Time

What implications do societies&#8217; risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, socio-hydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and flood events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory and proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant risk perception and management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying and risk controlling societies. We explore the consequent trajectories of flood risk generated by the interactions between floods and people for these ideal types of society over time. Results suggest that flood losses are substantially reduced when awareness raising attitudes are promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in the community. In contrast, societies that rely on top-down hierarchies and structural measures to protect settlements on floodplains may still suffer significant losses during extreme events. This study illustrates how predictions formed through social science theories can be applied and tested in hydrological modelling.

Download Full-text

Epidemics, climate change and natural hazards: Impacts and risk perceptions under COVID-19

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2408 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Giuliano Di Baldassarre ◽

Elena Mondino ◽

Elena Raffetti

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Natural Hazards ◽

Media Coverage ◽

Risk Perceptions ◽

Public Perceptions ◽

Multiple Hazards ◽

Multiple Risks ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

The Way

Epidemics, climate change and natural hazards are increasingly affecting humankind and are plausibly re-shaping the way in which people perceive multiple risks. Here we integrate epidemiological, policy, climate and natural hazard data with the results of two waves of nationwide surveys in Italy and Sweden. These were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We investigate the interplay between negative impacts and public perceptions of multiple hazards including epidemics, floods, droughts, wildfires, earthquakes, and climate change. Similarities and differences between Italy and Sweden allow us to investigate the role of policy, media coverage, and direct experience in explaining public perceptions of multiple hazards. The way in which people think about epidemics, for example, is expected to have been substantially influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic that has severely affected both countries, but to which the Italian and Swedish authorities responded differently. Indeed, we found that epidemics are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. In addition, when multiple hazards are considered, people are more worried about risks related to recently occurred events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Furthermore, for the majority of hazards, we found that in both countries women and younger people are generally more concerned. These new insights about the interplay between multiple hazards and public perceptions can inform the development of sustainable policies to reduce disaster risk while promoting public health.&#160;

Download Full-text

Multi-Hazard Scenarios and Dynamic Risk

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11114 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Joel Gill ◽

Ekbal Hussain ◽

Bruce Malamud ◽

Robert Šakić Trogrlić

Keyword(s):

Natural Hazards ◽

Urban Poor ◽

Disaster Risk ◽

Dynamic Nature ◽

Change Over Time ◽

The Public ◽

Multiple Hazards ◽

Risk Equation ◽

Dynamic Risk ◽

Over Time

In this paper, we discuss the dynamic nature of risk through the lens of multi-hazard relationships and scenarios. Disaster risk is commonly expressed as (Risk = Hazard &#215; Exposure &#215; Vulnerability). This expression does not communicate the extent to which each term (and therefore risk and impact) can change over time, and any relationships between the four variables. To better convey and discuss multi-hazards and dynamic risk, in July and August 2020 we held two virtual workshops (40 and 35 participants) as part of the GCRF Tomorrow&#8217;s Cities Research Hub, which has as its focus four cities Istanbul, Kathmandu, Nairobi, and Quito, with a particular emphasis on the urban poor. During the two workshops, participants (including those from academia, NGOs, and the public sector) from each city generated multi-hazard scenarios that can be used to improve the understanding of dynamic risk and we highlighted three main examples of dynamic risk: (1) The hazard term can involve multiple hazards, with relationships between hazards, and the likelihood or magnitude of single natural hazards and multi-hazard scenarios varying over time. (2) Both the exposure and vulnerability components of the risk equation change over time, and can contribute to the triggering, amplification (or reduction) of multi-hazard events. (3) Progression through multi-hazard scenarios can influence or drive changes in both exposure and/or vulnerability terms. These three statements illustrate the dynamic nature of each component of the risk equation and the existence of relationships between each term. Furthermore, they demonstrate how understanding the multi-hazard landscape and potential multi-hazard scenarios can help to enrich understanding of dynamic risk. This understanding of multi-hazard scenarios can be used to consider potential interventions where risk is dynamic.

Download Full-text