scholarly journals Storm surges and storm wind waves in the Caspian Sea in the present and future climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Pavlova ◽  
Stanislav Myslenkov ◽  
Victor Arkhipkin ◽  
Galina Surkova
Keyword(s):  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Climatic Scenarios

Abstract. This study is devoted to the analysis of the storm surges and wind waves in the Caspian Sea for the period from 1979 to 2017–2020. The models used are the circulation model ADCIRC and the wave model WAVEWATCH III with wind and pressure forcing from the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis. The modeling is performed on the unstructured grid with spacing to 300–700 m in the coastal zone. Mean and extreme values of surges, wave parameters, and storm activity are provided. The maximum significant wave height for the whole period amounts to 8.2 m. The average long-term SWH does not exceed 1.1 m. No significant trend in the storm activity was found. The maximum surges height amounts to 2.7 m. Analysis of the interannual variability of the surges occurrence showed that 7–10 surges with a height of more than 1 meter were obtained per year and the total duration of all these surges was 20–30 days per year. Assessment of the risk of coastal flooding was carried out by calculating the extreme values of the Sea for different return periods 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The extreme sea level values in the northern part of the Caspian Sea for the return period 100 years is close to 3 m and the areas with big surges are located along the eastern and western coasts. Based on climatic scenarios of CMIP5, a forecast is made for the recurrence of storm wind waves in the 21st century. A statistically significant increase of storm waves recurrence in the future was found, but it is not dramatically growing.

scholarly journals Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 2883-2897 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. S. Arkhipkin ◽  
F. N. Gippius ◽  
K. P. Koltermann ◽  
G. V. Surkova
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Parameter ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wave Parameters

Abstract. In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

scholarly journals Wind waves on the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1193-1221 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. S. Arkhipkin ◽  
F. N. Gippius ◽  
K. P. Koltermann ◽  
G. V. Surkova
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
The North ◽  
Wave Parameters

Abstract. In this study we describe the wind waves fields on the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal storm variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 km × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1948 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant storminess are the south-western and the north-eastern corners as expressed in the spatial distribution of wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides that, long-term annual variations of storminess were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the reanalysis period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Hydrodynamic Сonditions of the Bakalskaya Spit Degradation (Western Crimea) over the Past 30 Years

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. V. Divinsky ◽  
R. D. Kosyan ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Wave Impact ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. The paper is aimed at studying the morphodynamic features of the Bakalskaya Spit evolution being influenced by the sea wind waves and swell, namely assessment of inter-annual variations in the alluvial (erosion) areas of the Bakalskaya Spit coastline, analysis of inter-annual variability of the wind wave parameters, determination of the surface wave characteristics (or a combination of a few ones) responsible for the processes of the bottom material erosion or accumulation in the coastal zone. Methods and Results. Based on the analysis of satellite images for 1984–2016, the areas of the bottom material accumulation or erosion of the Bakalskaya Spit coastline were determined. Application of the spectral wave model permitted to obtain time series of the main parameters of wind waves and swell (significant wave heights and propagation directions) in the Bakalskaya Spit coastal zone with the 1 hr time resolution for the period from 1984 to 2016. The characteristics of surface waves responsible for the coastline deformation were revealed using the discriminant analysis. Conclusions. Analysis of satellite images of the spit made it possible to distinguish three periods in the history of the Bakalskaya Spit evolution: 1985–1997, 1998–2007 and 2007–2016. The first period was characterized by relative stability. The strongest erosion took place in 1998; after that the alluvial and erosion cases alternated for 10 years weakly tending to general erosion that constituted the second period. The third one that began in 2007 can be defined as the period of spit degradation accompanied by the irreversible loss of beach material. The basic parameters conditioning hydrodynamics of the Bakalskaya Spit water area are: total duration of storms; average and maximum values of significant heights of wind waves and swell. Statistical characteristics of the wind waves’ parameters are of a fairly strong inter-annual variability. According to the average and maximum indices, the wind waves directed close to the normal to the coastline (WSW and WNW) are the most developed. The applied discriminant analysis permitted to draw a statistically reliable conclusion that the direction of the final (average annual) wave impact on the coastal zone, conditioning the processes of sand accumulation or erosion was set by the waves directed to NNW, at that the swell contribution was dominant. The impact degree is conditioned by strong storms with the directions close to the normal to the coastline, namely, the WSW ones

Ship Motion Instabilities in Coastal Regions

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray-Qing Lin ◽  
Weijia Kuang
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Bottom Topography ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Wave Interaction ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Ship Motion ◽  
Ship Motions ◽  
Coastal Regions

Ship motion instabilities occur much more frequently in coastal regions than in the deep ocean because both nonlinear wave-wave interactions and wave-current interactions increase significantly as the water depth decreases. This is particularly significant in the coastal regions connecting to the open ocean, since the wave resonant interactions change from the four-equivalent-wave interaction in deep water to the interactions of three local wind waves with a long wave (e.g. swell, edge waves, bottom topography waves, etc.) in shallow water [1, 2], resulting in rapid growth of the incoming long waves. In this study, we use our DiSSEL (Digital, Self-consistent, Ship Experimental Laboratory) Ship Motion Model [3,4,5,6] coupled with our Coastal Wave Model [1,2,11] and an Ocean Circulation Model [7] to simulate strongly nonlinear ship motions in coastal regions, focusing on the ship motion instabilities arising from ship body-surface wave-current interactions.

scholarly journals Long-Term Evolution of the Caspian Sea Thermohaline Properties Reconstructed in an Eddy-Resolving OGCM

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gleb S. Dyakonov ◽  
Rashit A. Ibrayev
Keyword(s):  
Caspian Sea ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Error Accumulation

Abstract. The decadal variability of the Caspian Sea thermohaline properties is investigated by means of a high-resolution ocean general circulation model including sea ice thermodynamics and air-sea interaction, forced by prescribed realistic atmospheric conditions and riverine runoff. The model describes synoptic, seasonal and climatic variations of the sea thermohaline structure, water balance and level height. A reconstruction experiment was conducted for the period of 1961–2001, covering a major regime shift in the global climate of 1976–1978, which allows to investigate the Caspian Sea response to such significant episodes of climate change. The long-term trends in the sea circulation patterns are considered with an assessment of the influence of model error accumulation.

scholarly journals NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF CYCLONE NARGIS (2008) AND ITS RELATED WAVE FIELD AT MYANMAR COAST BY USING WRF-SWAN MODEL

2018 ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Thit Oo Kyaw ◽  
Tomoya Shibayama
Keyword(s):  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Swan Model ◽  
History Of ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Port Planning ◽  
Cyclone Nargis

Understanding potentially extreme wave conditions during cyclonic events is essential for many coastal projects such as port planning, construction and coastline protection. For that purpose, numerical modeling techniques have been utilized efficiently to predict cyclonic wind and wave fields. In this study, cyclone Nargis (2008), which is the most severe cyclone in recorded history of Myanmar and its related wind generated waves (offshore and nearshore) are reproduced by using Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW, Skamarock et al., 2008) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN, a third-generation wave model developed at TU Delft). In fact, a number of studies have been conducted on simulating the cyclone Nargis and its subsequent storm surges (such as Raju et al., 2011 and Tasnim et al., 2015). By contrast, this research mainly focuses on configuration of wind waves caused by cyclone Nargis in order to understand the extreme wave figure at Myanmar coast during cyclone Nargis. The reliability and performance of the WRF-SWAN model is also checked. The model results are compared with observed data from different sources (JTWC, IMD, NOAA etc.).

Intraannual and interannual variability of storm surges in the North Caspian Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 42-57
Author(s):  
A.V. Pavlova ◽  
◽  
V.S. Arkhipkin ◽  
S.A. Myslenkov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
The North ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Flooded Area

The article presents the results of hydrodynamic modeling of sea level fluctuations in the Caspian Sea using the ADCIRC model for the period from 1979 to 2017. Surges are simulated using an irregular triangulation computational grid with a changing cell size, that easily adapts to changes in shoreline and depth and, therefore, more accurately describes coastal zones. It is found that the seasonal variability of surges is characterized by a maximum in winter and spring and by a minimum in summer. On the western coast of the North Caspian Sea, the maximum sea-level fluctuations are observed in December-February, and on the northern and eastern coasts – in February and March. The areas of inundation of the coastal territory of the Russian sector of the sea are identified. For the surge on March 12–16, 1995, that was one of the most catastrophic ones in terms of its consequences, the inundation area made up 53% of the possible flooded area, and the inundation area for the surge registered on March 27–April 1, 2015 made up 71 %. The more severe consequences of the surge in 1995 are associated with the fact that the mean annual sea level, that determines the possible flooded area, in 1995 was much higher than in 2015. Keywords: ADCIRC, Caspian Sea, unstructured grid, storm surge, sea level, numerical modeling Fig. 11. Ref. 15.

scholarly journals WIND WAVE NUMERICAL MODELING IN THE CASPIAN SEA

2017 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W4 ◽  
pp. 513-516
Author(s):  
R. Mahmoodi ◽  
A. A. Ardalan ◽  
M. Hasanlou
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Stokes Equations ◽  
Measurement Data ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Navier Stokes ◽  
The Caspian Sea

Numerical simulation results of wind wave in the Caspian Sea by using wind forcing data are presented. The numerical modeling which is applied in this study is based on numerical spectral wave model which is based on Navier-Stokes equations. It solves these equations through each of mesh elements. Moreover, in this model high-resolution unstructured grid for the Caspian Sea has been used in order to reach finer accuracy. The wind forcing data are given from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The measurement data, which are gained from Ports and Marine Organisation (PMO) of Iran, are used in order to estimate the accuracy of the model. The results have shown better accuracy in comparison with PMO simulation. Mean of the coefficient of determination (R-squared) for significant wave height in this simulation is 0.8059, though, in PMO simulation this coefficient is reported 0.7056. Better accuracy requires more measurement data and also finer resolution of bathymetry data.

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