Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazards

Abstract. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) mission is to deliver high-quality global medium-range numerical weather predictions and monitoring of the Earth system to its member states. The modelling and forecasting of natural hazards are an important part of this mission. Challenges in this area include the integration of innovative observations into the Earth system; realistic representations of water, energy and carbon cycles; coupling and initialisation of all Earth system components; adequate representation of uncertainties; supporting the development of user-specific products to enable optimal decision-making under uncertainties; and advances in software engineering. The new ECMWF strategy identified three pillars to sustain its future development (ECMWF, 2021a): science and technology (world-leading weather and Earth system science, cutting-edge technology and computational science), impact (high-quality products fit for purpose, efficient and easy access to products), and people (inspiring and hiring the best experts). Progress in all these areas will need enhanced collaboration with member states and partners across Europe and beyond.

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Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 Challenges in the area of natural hazards

10.5194/nhess-2021-33 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Florian Pappenberger ◽

Florence Rabier ◽

Fabio Venuti

Keyword(s):

Natural Hazards ◽

Easy Access ◽

Earth System ◽

High Quality ◽

Member States ◽

Carbon Cycles ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

The Earth ◽

Medium Range ◽

New Strategy

Abstract. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high quality global medium‐range numerical weather predictions and monitoring of the Earth system to its Member States. The modelling and forecasting of natural hazards are an important part of this mission. The new strategy identified several goals: producing world leading weather and earth-system science, cutting edge technology and computational science, high quality products fit for purpose, efficient and easy access to products, and aiming to inspire and hire the best experts. Challenges for the future include integration of innovative observations into the earth system, a realistic representations of water, energy, and carbon cycles, coupling and initialisation of all earth system components, adequate representation of uncertainties and advances in software engineering. Progress in all these areas will need enhanced collaboration with Member States and partners across Europe and beyond.

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The Frontiers of Deep Learning for Earth System Modelling

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12541 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

David Hall

Keyword(s):

Artificial Intelligence ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Neural Nets ◽

Generative Adversarial Networks ◽

System Modelling ◽

Earth System ◽

Adversarial Networks ◽

The Earth ◽

Medium Range ◽

Earth System Modelling

<p>This talk gives an overview of cutting-edge artificial intelligence applications and techniques for the earth-system sciences. We survey the most important recent contributions in areas including extreme weather, physics emulation, nowcasting, medium-range forecasting, uncertainty quantification, bias-correction, generative adversarial networks, data in-painting, network-HPC coupling, physics-informed neural nets, and geoengineering, amongst others. Then, we describe recent AI breakthroughs that have the potential to be of greatest benefit to the geosciences. We also discuss major open challenges in AI for science and their potential solutions. This talk is a living document, in that it is updated frequently, in order to accurately relect this rapidly changing field.</p>

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The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2: description and first results

10.5194/gmd-2016-149 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Thomas Gasser ◽

Philippe Ciais ◽

Olivier Boucher ◽

Yann Quilcaille ◽

Maxime Tortora ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Earth System Model ◽

System Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Historical Period ◽

Earth System ◽

Atmospheric Concentration ◽

Carbon Cycles ◽

The Earth

Abstract. This paper provides a comprehensive description of OSCAR v2.2, a simple Earth system model. The general philosophy of development is first explained, it is then followed by a complete description of the model's drivers and various modules. All components of the Earth system necessary to simulate future climate change are represented in the model: the oceanic and terrestrial carbon-cycles – including a book-keeping module to endogenously estimate land-use change emissions – so as to simulate the change in atmospheric carbon dioxide; the tropospheric OH chemistry and the natural wetlands, to simulate that of methane; the stratospheric chemistry, for nitrous oxide; thirty-seven halogenated compounds; changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone; the direct and indirect effects of aerosols; changes in surface albedo caused by black carbon deposition on snow and land-cover change; and the global and regional response of climate – in terms of temperatures and precipitations – to all these climate forcers. Following the probabilistic framework of the model, an ensemble of simulations is made over the historical period (1750–2010). We show that the model performs well in reproducing observed past changes in the Earth system such as increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases or increased global mean surface temperature.

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Editorial of Special Issue “Detecting Geospace Perturbations Caused by Earth”

Geosciences ◽

10.3390/geosciences11120496 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 496

Author(s):

Georgios Balasis ◽

Angelo De Santis

Keyword(s):

Natural Hazards ◽

Saharan Dust ◽

Earth System ◽

Special Issue ◽

Geomagnetic Disturbances ◽

Complex Dynamic ◽

The Earth ◽

Dust Events ◽

Dynamic Phenomena

A systematic multiparametric and multiplatform approach to detect and study geo-space perturbations attributed to preparation processes related to natural hazards is fundamental in order to obtain useful insights on a series of complex dynamic phenomena of the Earth system, namely, earthquakes, volcanic and Saharan dust events, as well as geomagnetic disturbances [...]

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The implications of the recently recognized mid-20th century shift in the Earth system

The Anthropocene Review ◽

10.1177/2053019621995526 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 205301962199552

Author(s):

Chris Turney ◽

Chris Fogwill

Keyword(s):

20Th Century ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

Earth System ◽

High Quality ◽

The Earth ◽

Global Environmental ◽

Future Warming ◽

Atmospheric Interactions ◽

Great Acceleration ◽

The Impact

Satellite observations offering detailed records of global environmental change are only available from 1979. Emerging studies combining high-quality instrumental and natural observations highlight that the Earth system experienced a substantial shift across the mid-20th century, one that appears to have taken place before the Great Acceleration of human activities from the 1950s. These new results have far-reaching implications for understanding ice-ocean-atmospheric interactions in the Anthropocene and highlight the urgent need for drastic cuts in carbon emissions to limit the impact of future warming.

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The role of karst in engineering and environmental geosciences

Solid Earth ◽

10.5194/se-2-155-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 155-158 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

H. C. Ho

Keyword(s):

Water Pollution ◽

Natural Hazards ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

Drainage System ◽

Nutrient Cycles ◽

Earth System ◽

The Earth ◽

Soluble Rock ◽

Groundwater Drainage

Abstract. Karst is a unique landform developed by soluble rock. It usually relates to the groundwater drainage system, and provides important water resources. Current researches indicate that karst is closely related to the Earth system and environmental protection, and it can also create potential natural hazards such as sinkhole flooding and land subsidence in urban area. Its relationship with hydrogeology has also been an important factor for studying water pollution and nutrient cycles in engineering geosciences and agricultural geology.

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