scholarly journals Imprint of chaotic ocean variability on transports in the Southwest Pacific at interannual timescales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Cravatte ◽  
Guillaume Serazin ◽  
Thierry Penduff ◽  
Christophe Menkes
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Initial Perturbation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Ocean Variability

Abstract. The Southwest Pacific Ocean sits at a bifurcation where southern subtropical waters are redistributed equatorward and poleward by different ocean currents. The processes governing the interannual variability of these currents are not completely understood. This issue is investigated using a probabilistic modeling strategy that allows disentangling the atmospherically-forced deterministic ocean variability and the chaotic intrinsic ocean variability. A large ensemble of 50 simulations performed with the same ocean general circulation model (OGCM) driven by the same realistic atmospheric forcing that only differ by a small initial perturbation is analyzed over 1980–2015. Our results show that, in the Southwest Pacific, the interannual variability of the transports is strongly dominated by chaotic ocean variability south of 20° S. In the tropics, while the interannual variability of transports and eddy kinetic energy modulation is largely deterministic and explained by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ocean nonlinear processes still explain 10 to 20 % of their interannual variance at large-scale. Regions of strong chaotic variance generally coincide with regions of high mesoscale activity, suggesting that a spontaneous inverse cascade is at work from mesoscale toward lower frequencies and larger scales. The spatiotemporal features of the low-frequency oceanic chaotic variability are complex but spatially coherent within certain regions. In the Subtropical Countercurrent area, they appear as interannually-varying, zonally elongated alternating current structures, while in the EAC region, they are eddy-shaped. Given this strong imprint of large-scale chaotic oceanic fluctuations, our results question the attribution of interannual variability to the atmospheric forcing in the region from point-wise observations and one-member simulations.

scholarly journals Imprint of chaotic ocean variability on transports in the southwestern Pacific at interannual timescales

Ocean Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 487-507
Author(s):  
Sophie Cravatte ◽  
Guillaume Serazin ◽  
Thierry Penduff ◽  
Christophe Menkes
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Initial Perturbation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Ocean Variability

Abstract. The southwestern Pacific Ocean sits at a bifurcation where southern subtropical waters are redistributed equatorward and poleward by different ocean currents. The processes governing the interannual variability of these currents are not completely understood. This issue is investigated using a probabilistic modeling strategy that allows disentangling the atmospherically forced deterministic ocean variability and the chaotic intrinsic ocean variability. A large ensemble of 50 simulations performed with the same ocean general circulation model (OGCM) driven by the same realistic atmospheric forcing and only differing by a small initial perturbation is analyzed over 1980–2015. Our results show that, in the southwestern Pacific, the interannual variability of the transports is strongly dominated by chaotic ocean variability south of 20∘ S. In the tropics, while the interannual variability of transports and eddy kinetic energy modulation are largely deterministic and explained by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ocean nonlinear processes still explain 10 % to 20 % of their interannual variance at large scale. Regions of strong chaotic variance generally coincide with regions of high mesoscale activity, suggesting that a spontaneous inverse cascade is at work from the mesoscale toward lower frequencies and larger scales. The spatiotemporal features of the low-frequency oceanic chaotic variability are complex but spatially coherent within certain regions. In the Subtropical Countercurrent area, they appear as interannually varying, zonally elongated alternating current structures, while in the EAC (East Australian Current) region, they are eddy-shaped. Given this strong imprint of large-scale chaotic oceanic fluctuations, our results question the attribution of interannual variability to the atmospheric forcing in the region from pointwise observations and one-member simulations.

scholarly journals The response of Mediterranean thermohaline circulation to climate change: a minimal model

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Th. Meijer ◽  
H. A. Dijkstra
Keyword(s):  
Minimal Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Overturning Circulation

Abstract. Physics-based understanding of the effects of paleoclimate and paleogeography on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea requires an ocean model capable of long integrations and involving a minimum of assumptions about the atmospheric forcing. Here we examine the sensitivity of the deep circulation in the eastern Mediterranean basin to changes in atmospheric forcing, considered a key factor in the deposition of organic-rich sediments (sapropels). To this extent we explore the setup of an ocean general circulation model (MOMA) with realistic (present-day) bathymetry and highly idealized forcing. The model proves able to qualitatively capture some important features of the large-scale overturning circulation, in particular for the eastern basin. The response to (i) a reduction in the imposed meridional temperature gradient, or (ii) a reduction in net evaporation, proves to be non-linear and, under certain conditions, of transient nature. Consistent with previous model studies, but now based on a minimum of assumptions, we find that a reduction in net evaporation (such as due to an increase in freshwater input) may halt the deep overturning circulation. The ability to perform long model integrations allows us to add the insight that, in order to have the conditions favourable for sapropel formation persist, we must also assume that the vertical mixing of water properties was reduced. The "minimal" model here presented opens the way to experiments in which one truly follows the basin circulation into, or out of, the period of sapropel formation and where forcing conditions are continously adjusted to the precession cycle.

scholarly journals The response of Mediterranean thermohaline circulation to climate change: a minimal model

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 1731-1749 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Th. Meijer ◽  
H. A. Dijkstra
Keyword(s):  
Minimal Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Overturning Circulation

Abstract. Physics-based understanding of the effects of paleoclimate and paleogeography on the thermohaline circulation of the Mediterranean Sea requires an ocean model capable of long integrations and involving a minimum of assumptions about the atmospheric forcing. Here we examine the sensitivity of the deep circulation in the eastern Mediterranean basin to changes in atmospheric forcing, considered a key factor in the deposition of organic-rich sediments (sapropels). To this extent we explore the setup of an ocean general circulation model (MOMA) with realistic (present-day) bathymetry and highly idealized forcing. The model proves able to qualitatively capture some important features of the large-scale overturning circulation, in particular for the eastern basin. The response to (i) a reduction in the imposed meridional temperature gradient, or (ii) a reduction in net evaporation, proves to be non-linear and, under certain conditions, of transient nature. Consistent with previous model studies, but now based on a minimum of assumptions, we find that a reduction in net evaporation (such as due to an increase in freshwater input) may halt the deep overturning circulation. The ability to perform long model integrations allows us to add the insight that, in order to have the conditions favourable for sapropel formation persist, we must also assume that the vertical mixing of water properties was reduced. The "minimal" model here presented opens the way to experiments in which one truly follows the basin circulation into, or out of, the period of sapropel formation and where forcing conditions are continuously adjusted to the precession cycle.

scholarly journals Towards a regional ocean forecasting system for the IBI (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland area): developments and improvements within the ECOOP project framework

Ocean Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Cailleau ◽  
J. Chanut ◽  
J.-M. Lellouche ◽  
B. Levier ◽  
C. Maraldi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Tidal Mixing ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Ocean Forecasting

Abstract. The regional ocean operational system remains a key element in downscaling from large scale (global or basin scale) systems to coastal ones. It enables the transition between systems in which the resolution and the resolved physics are quite different. Indeed, coastal applications need a system to predict local high frequency events (inferior to the day) such as storm surges, while deep sea applications need a system to predict large scale lower frequency ocean features. In the framework of the ECOOP project, a regional system for the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland area has been upgraded from an existing V0 version to a V2. This paper focuses on the improvements from the V1 system, for which the physics are close to a large scale basin system, to the V2 for which the physics are more adapted to shelf and coastal issues. Strong developments such as higher regional physics resolution in the NEMO Ocean General Circulation Model for tides, non linear free surface and adapted vertical mixing schemes among others have been implemented in the V2 version. Thus, regional thermal fronts due to tidal mixing now appear in the latest version solution and are quite well positioned. Moreover, simulation of the stratification in shelf areas is also improved in the V2.

Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (23) ◽  
pp. 6312-6335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Tatsuo Suzuki ◽  
Ryouta O’ishi ◽  
Yoshiki Komuro ◽  
Shingo Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Mean Fields ◽  
Equatorial Ocean ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference

Abstract A new version of the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model cooperatively produced by the Japanese research community, known as the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), has recently been developed. A century-long control experiment was performed using the new version (MIROC5) with the standard resolution of the T85 atmosphere and 1° ocean models. The climatological mean state and variability are then compared with observations and those in a previous version (MIROC3.2) with two different resolutions (medres, hires), coarser and finer than the resolution of MIROC5. A few aspects of the mean fields in MIROC5 are similar to or slightly worse than MIROC3.2, but otherwise the climatological features are considerably better. In particular, improvements are found in precipitation, zonal mean atmospheric fields, equatorial ocean subsurface fields, and the simulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The difference between MIROC5 and the previous model is larger than that between the two MIROC3.2 versions, indicating a greater effect of updating parameterization schemes on the model climate than increasing the model resolution. The mean cloud property obtained from the sophisticated prognostic schemes in MIROC5 shows good agreement with satellite measurements. MIROC5 reveals an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6 K, which is lower than that in MIROC3.2 by 1 K. This is probably due to the negative feedback of low clouds to the increasing concentration of CO2, which is opposite to that in MIROC3.2.

Interannual oscillations in an ocean general circulation model coupled to a simple atmosphere model

1989 ◽  
Vol 329 (1604) ◽  
pp. 189-205 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Coupled Oscillations

A model is being developed for tropical air-sea interaction studies that is intermediate in complexity between the large coupled general circulation models (GCMS) that are coming into use, and the simple two-level models with which pioneering El Nino Southern Oscillation studies were done. The model consists of a stripped-down tropical Pacific Ocean GCM, coupled to an atmospheric model that is sufficiently simple that steady-state solutions may be found for low-level flow and surface stress, given oceanic boundary conditions. This permits examination of the nature of interannual coupled oscillations in the absence of atmospheric noise. In preliminary tests of the model the coupled system is found to undergo a Hopf bifurcation as certain parameters are varied, giving rise to sustained three to four year oscillations. For stronger coupling, a secondary bifurcation yields six month coupled oscillations during the warm phase of the El Nino-period oscillation. Such variability could potentially affect the predictability of the coupled system.

scholarly journals Can Lagrangian Tracking Simulate Tracer Spreading in a High-Resolution Ocean General Circulation Model?

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 1141-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Wagner ◽  
Siren Rühs ◽  
Franziska U. Schwarzkopf ◽  
Inga Monika Koszalka ◽  
Arne Biastoch
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Eddy Diffusivity ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Lagrangian Particles ◽  
Cape Basin

AbstractTo model tracer spreading in the ocean, Lagrangian simulations in an offline framework are a practical and efficient alternative to solving the advective–diffusive tracer equations online. Differences in both approaches raise the question of whether both methods are comparable. Lagrangian simulations usually use model output averaged in time, and trajectories are not subject to parameterized subgrid diffusion, which is included in the advection–diffusion equations of ocean models. Previous studies focused on diffusivity estimates in idealized models but could show that both methods yield similar results as long as the deformations-scale dynamics are resolved and a sufficient amount of Lagrangian particles is used. This study compares spreading of an Eulerian tracer simulated online and a cloud of Lagrangian particles simulated offline with velocities from the same ocean model. We use a global, eddy-resolving ocean model featuring 1/20° horizontal resolution in the Agulhas region around South Africa. Tracer and particles were released at one time step in the Cape Basin and below the mixed layer and integrated for 3 years. Large-scale diagnostics, like mean pathways of floats and tracer, are almost identical and 1D horizontal distributions show no significant differences. Differences in vertical distributions, seen in a reduced vertical spreading and downward displacement of particles, are due to the combined effect of unresolved subdaily variability of the vertical velocities and the spatial variation of vertical diffusivity. This, in turn, has a small impact on the horizontal spreading behavior. The estimates of eddy diffusivity from particles and tracer yield comparable results of about 4000 m2 s−1 in the Cape Basin.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6727-6749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Kwon Lim ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Oreste Reale ◽  
Andrea M. Molod ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well-known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic) led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Niño index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that the predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to subtropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO.

scholarly journals The GPU version of LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model version 3 (LICOM3) under the heterogeneous-compute interface for portability (HIP) framework and its large-scale application

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 2781-2799
Author(s):  
Pengfei Wang ◽  
Jinrong Jiang ◽  
Pengfei Lin ◽  
Mengrong Ding ◽  
Junlin Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Direction ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Processing Unit ◽  
Model Version

Abstract. A high-resolution (1/20∘) global ocean general circulation model with graphics processing unit (GPU) code implementations is developed based on the LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model version 3 (LICOM3) under a heterogeneous-compute interface for portability (HIP) framework. The dynamic core and physics package of LICOM3 are both ported to the GPU, and three-dimensional parallelization (also partitioned in the vertical direction) is applied. The HIP version of LICOM3 (LICOM3-HIP) is 42 times faster than the same number of CPU cores when 384 AMD GPUs and CPU cores are used. LICOM3-HIP has excellent scalability; it can still obtain a speedup of more than 4 on 9216 GPUs compared to 384 GPUs. In this phase, we successfully performed a test of 1/20∘ LICOM3-HIP using 6550 nodes and 26 200 GPUs, and on a large scale, the model's speed was increased to approximately 2.72 simulated years per day (SYPD). By putting almost all the computation processes inside GPUs, the time cost of data transfer between CPUs and GPUs was reduced, resulting in high performance. Simultaneously, a 14-year spin-up integration following phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP-2) protocol of surface forcing was performed, and preliminary results were evaluated. We found that the model results had little difference from the CPU version. Further comparison with observations and lower-resolution LICOM3 results suggests that the 1/20∘ LICOM3-HIP can reproduce the observations and produce many smaller-scale activities, such as submesoscale eddies and frontal-scale structures.

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