scholarly journals The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1887-1920
Author(s):  
J. J. Day ◽  
J. L. Bamber ◽  
P. J. Valdes ◽  
J. Kohler
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) predict a rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice extent in the 21st century. The decline of September sea ice is expected to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free, leading to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers which are extremely sensitive to changes in climate. Records of past accumulation indicate that the surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard is also sensitive to changes in the position of the sea ice edge. To investigate the impact of 21st Century sea ice decline on the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard a high resolution (25 km) regional climate model (RCM) was forced with a repeating cycle of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice conditions for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090. By prescribing 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice for one simulation, the impact of sea ice decline is isolated. This study shows that the coupled impact of sea ice decline and SST increase results in a decrease in SMB, whereas the impact of sea ice decline alone causes an increase in SMB of similar magnitude.

scholarly journals The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Day ◽  
J. L. Bamber ◽  
P. J. Valdes ◽  
J. Kohler
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard's surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard's SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard's glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

scholarly journals Recent Sea Ice Decline Did Not Significantly Increase the Total Liquid Freshwater Content of the Arctic Ocean

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Dmitry Sidorenko ◽  
Nikolay Koldunov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Eurasian Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The freshwater stored in the Arctic Ocean is an important component of the global climate system. Currently the Arctic liquid freshwater content (FWC) has reached a record high since the beginning of the last century. In this study we use numerical simulations to investigate the impact of sea ice decline on the Arctic liquid FWC and its spatial distribution. The global unstructured-mesh ocean general circulation model Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM) with 4.5-km horizontal resolution in the Arctic region is applied. The simulations show that sea ice decline increases the FWC by freshening the ocean through sea ice meltwater and modifies upper ocean circulation at the same time. The two effects together significantly increase the freshwater stored in the Amerasian basin and reduce its amount in the Eurasian basin. The salinification of the upper Eurasian basin is mainly caused by the reduction in the proportion of Pacific Water and the increase in that of Atlantic Water (AW). Consequently, the sea ice decline did not significantly contribute to the observed rapid increase in the Arctic total liquid FWC. However, the changes in the Arctic freshwater spatial distribution indicate that the influence of sea ice decline on the ocean environment is remarkable. Sea ice decline increases the amount of Barents Sea branch AW in the upper Arctic Ocean, thus reducing its supply to the deeper Arctic layers. This study suggests that all the dynamical processes sensitive to sea ice decline should be taken into account when understanding and predicting Arctic changes.

scholarly journals Sea-ice edge is more important than closer open water access for foraging Adélie penguins: evidence from two colonies

2020 ◽  
Vol 640 ◽  
pp. 215-230
Author(s):  
C Michelot ◽  
A Kato ◽  
T Raclot ◽  
K Shiomi ◽  
P Goulet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adélie Penguins

Sentinel species, like Adélie penguins, have been used to assess the impact of environmental changes, and their link with sea ice has received considerable attention. Here, we tested if foraging Adélie penguins from 2 colonies in East Antarctica target the distant sea-ice edge or take advantage of closer open waters that are readily available near their colony. We examined the foraging behaviour of penguins during the incubation trips of females in 2016 and males in 2017, using GPS tracking and diet data in view of daily sea-ice data and bathymetry. In 2016-2017, sea-ice cover was extensive during females’ trips but flaw leads and polynyas were close to both study sites. Sea ice receded rapidly during males’ trips in 2017-2018. Despite close open water near both colonies in both years, females and males preferentially targeted the continental slope and the sea-ice edge to forage. In addition, there was no difference in the diet of penguins from both colonies: all penguins fed mostly on Antarctic krill and males also foraged on Antarctic silverfish. Our results highlight the importance of the sea-ice edge for penguins, an area where food abundance is predictable. It is likely that resource availability was not sufficient in closer open water areas at such an early stage in the breeding season. The behaviours displayed by the penguins from both colonies were similar, suggesting a common behaviour across colonies in Terre Adélie, although additional sites would be necessary to confirm this hypothesis.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Fettweis ◽  
E. Hanna ◽  
H. Gallée ◽  
P. Huybrechts ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipitation anomaly. This multiple regression is then used to empirically estimate the GrIS SMB since 1900 from climatological time series. The projected SMB changes in the 21st century are investigated with the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). These estimates show that the high surface mass loss rates of recent years are not unprecedented in the GrIS history of the last hundred years. The minimum SMB rate seems to have occurred earlier in the 1930s and corresponds to a zero SMB rate. The AOGCMs project that the SMB rate of the 1930s would be common at the end of 2100. The temperature would be higher than in the 1930s but the increase of accumulation in the 21st century would partly offset the acceleration of surface melt due to the temperature increase. However, these assumptions are based on an empirical multiple regression only validated for recent/current climatic conditions, and the accuracy and time homogeneity of the data sets and AOGCM results used in these estimations constitute a large uncertainty.

scholarly journals Simulations of changes to Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia (16° S), over the 21st century using a 3-D full-Stokes model and CMIP5 climate projections

2015 ◽  
Vol 56 (70) ◽  
pp. 89-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Réveillet ◽  
Antoine Rabatel ◽  
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
Alvaro Soruco
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Intercomparison Project

AbstractBolivian glaciers are an essential source of fresh water for the Altiplano, and any changes they may undergo in the near future due to ongoing climate change are of particular concern. Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia, located near the administrative capital La Paz, has been extensively monitored by the GLACIOCLIM observatory in the last two decades. Here we model the glacier dynamics using the 3-D full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice. The model was calibrated and validated over a recent period (1997–2010) using four independent datasets: available observations of surface velocities and surface mass balance were used for calibration, and changes in surface elevation and retreat of the glacier front were used for validation. Over the validation period, model outputs are in good agreement with observations (differences less than a small percentage). The future surface mass balance is assumed to depend on the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and temperature changes through the sensitivity of ELA to temperature. The model was then forced for the 21st century using temperature changes projected by nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Here we give results for three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The intermediate scenario RCP6.0 led to 69 ± 7% volume loss by 2100, while the two extreme scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, led to 40 ± 7% and 89 ± 4% loss of volume, respectively.

scholarly journals Measurements and modeling of snow albedo at Alerce Glacier, Argentina: effects of volcanic ash, snow grain size, and cloudiness

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 4581-4601
Author(s):  
Julián Gelman Constantin ◽  
Lucas Ruiz ◽  
Gustavo Villarosa ◽  
Valeria Outes ◽  
Facundo N. Bajano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Grain Size ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Impurity Content ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Snow Albedo ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of volcanic ash on seasonal snow and glacier mass balance has been much less studied than that of carbonaceous particles and mineral dust. We present here the first field measurements on the Argentinian Andes, combined with snow albedo and glacier mass balance modeling. Measured impurity content (1.1 mg kg−1 to 30 000 mg kg−1) varied abruptly in snow pits and snow and firn cores, due to high surface enrichment during the ablation season and possibly local or regional wind-driven resuspension and redeposition of dust and volcanic ash. In addition, we observed high spatial heterogeneity, due to glacier topography and the prevailing wind direction. Microscopic characterization showed that the major component was ash from recent Calbuco (2015) and Cordón Caulle (2011) volcanic eruptions, with a minor presence of mineral dust and black carbon. We also found a wide range of measured snow albedo (0.26 to 0.81), which reflected mainly the impurity content and the snow and firn grain size (due to aging). We updated the SNow, ICe, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) albedo model to account for the effect of cloudiness on incident radiation spectra, improving the match of modeled and measured values. We also ran sensitivity studies considering the uncertainty in the main measured parameters (impurity content and composition, snow grain size, layer thickness, etc.) to identify the field measurements that should be improved to facilitate the validation of the snow albedo model. Finally, we studied the impact of these albedo reductions on Alerce Glacier using a spatially distributed surface mass balance model. We found a large impact of albedo changes on glacier mass balance, and we estimated that the effect of observed ash concentrations can be as high as a 1.25 m water equivalent decrease in the annual surface mass balance (due to a 34 % increase in the melt during the ablation season).

scholarly journals Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2311-2321 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Agosta ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
R. Datta
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet cannot be reliably deduced from global climate models (GCMs), both because their spatial resolution is insufficient and because their physics are not adapted for cold and snow-covered regions. By contrast, regional climate models (RCMs) adapted for polar regions can physically and dynamically downscale SMB components over the ice sheet using large-scale forcing at their boundaries. Polar-oriented RCMs require appropriate GCM fields for forcing because the response of the cryosphere to a warming climate is dependent on its initial state and is not linear with respect to temperature increase. In this context, we evaluate the current climate in 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data set over Antarctica by focusing on forcing fields which may have the greatest impact on SMB components simulated by RCMs. Our inter-comparison includes six reanalyses, among which ERA-Interim reanalysis is chosen as a reference over 1979–2014. Model efficiency is assessed taking into account the multi-decadal variability of the fields over the 1850–1980 period. We show that fewer than 10 CMIP5 models show reasonable biases compared to ERA-Interim, among which ACCESS1-3 is the most pertinent choice for forcing RCMs over Antarctica, followed by ACCESS1-0, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, NorESM1-M, CCSM4 and EC-EARTH. Finally, climate change over the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 is less sensitive to the global warming signal than it is to the present-day simulated sea-ice extent and to the feedback between sea-ice decrease and air temperature increase around Antarctica.

Sources of Uncertainty in Greenland Surface Mass Balance in the 21st century.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharina Meike Holube ◽  
Tobias Zolles ◽  
Andreas Born
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Ensemble Of Simulations

<p>The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet is subject to considerable uncertainties that complicate predictions of sea-level rise caused by climate change.<br>We examine the SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet and its uncertainty in the 21st century using a wide ensemble of simulations with the surface energy and mass balance model "BEr<em>ge</em>n Snow SImulator" (BESSI). We conduct simulations for four greenhouse gas emission scenarios using the output of 26 climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to force BESSI. In addition, the uncertainty of the SMB simulation is estimated by using 16 different parameter sets in our SMB model. The median SMB across climate models, integrated over the ice sheet, decreases for every emission scenario and every parameter set. As expected, the decrease in SMB is stronger for higher greenhouse gas emissions. The uncertainty range in SMB is considerably greater in our ensemble than in other studies that used fewer climate models as forcing. An analysis of the different sources of uncertainty shows that the differences between climate models are the main reason for SMB uncertainty, exceeding even the uncertainty due to the choice of climate scenario. In comparison, the uncertainty caused by the snow model parameters is negligible. The differences between the climate models are most pronounced in the north of Greenland and in the area around the equilibrium line, whereas the ensemble of simulations agrees that the SMB decrease is greatest in the west of Greenland. </p>

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