scholarly journals Minute-scale power forecast of offshore wind turbines using long-range single-Doppler lidar measurements

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1449-1468
Author(s):  
Frauke Theuer ◽  
Marijn Floris van Dooren ◽  
Lueder von Bremen ◽  
Martin Kühn
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Time Synchronization ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Scanning Speed ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Doppler Lidar ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Lidar Measurements

Abstract. Decreasing gate closure times on the electricity stock exchange market and the rising share of renewables in today's energy system causes an increasing demand for very short-term power forecasts. While the potential of dual-Doppler radar data for that purpose was recently shown, the utilization of single-Doppler lidar measurements needs to be explored further to make remote-sensing-based very short-term forecasts more feasible for offshore sites. The aim of this work was to develop a lidar-based forecasting methodology, which addresses a lidar's comparatively low scanning speed. We developed a lidar-based forecast methodology using horizontal plan position indicator (PPI) lidar scans. It comprises a filtering methodology to recover data at far ranges, a wind field reconstruction, a time synchronization to account for time shifts within the lidar scans and a wind speed extrapolation to hub height. Applying the methodology to seven free-flow turbines in the offshore wind farm Global Tech I revealed the model's ability to outperform the benchmark persistence during unstable stratification, in terms of deterministic as well as probabilistic scores. The performance during stable and neutral situations was significantly lower, which we attribute mainly to errors in the extrapolation of wind speed to hub height.

scholarly journals Minute-scale power forecast of offshore wind turbines using single-Doppler long-range lidar measurements

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frauke Theuer ◽  
Marijn Floris van Dooren ◽  
Lueder von Bremen ◽  
Martin Kühn
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Scanning Speed ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Lidar Measurements

Abstract. Decreasing gate closure times on the electricity stock exchange market and the rising share of renewables in today's energy system cause an increasing demand for very short-term power forecasts. While the potential of dual-Doppler radar data for that purpose was recently shown, the utilisation of single-Doppler lidar measurements needs to be explored further to make remote sensing-based very short-term forecasts more feasible for offshore sites. The aim of this work was to develop a lidar-based forecasting methodology, which addresses a lidar's comparatively low scanning speed. We developed a lidar-based forecast methodology using horizontal plan position indicator (PPI) lidar scans. It comprises a filtering methodology to recover data at far ranges, a wind field reconstruction, a time synchronisation to account for time shifts within the lidar scans and a wind speed extrapolation to hub height. Applying the methodology to seven free-flow turbines in the offshore wind farm Global Tech I revealed the model's ability to outperform the benchmark persistence during unstable stratification, in terms of deterministic as well as probabilistic scores. The performance during stable and neutral situations was significantly lower, which we attribute mainly to errors in the extrapolation of wind speed to hub height.

scholarly journals Analysis of Wind Speed Shear and Turbulence LiDAR Measurements to Support Offshore Wind in the Northeast United States

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Viselli ◽  
Nathan Faessler ◽  
Matthew Filippelli
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
American Petroleum Institute ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Wind Speed Profile ◽  
Northeast United States ◽  
Lidar Measurements ◽  
Wind Shears

This paper presents wind speed measurements collected at 40m to 200m above sea-level to support the New England Aqua Ventus I 12 MW Floating Offshore Wind Farm to be located 17km offshore the Northeast United States. The high-altitude wind speed data are unique and represent some of the first measurements made offshore in this part of the country which is actively being developed for offshore wind. Multiple LiDAR measurements were made using a DeepCLiDAR floating buoy and LiDARs located on land on a nearby island. The LiDARs compared favorably thereby confirming the LiDAR buoy measurements. Wind speed shear profiles are presented. The measurements are compared against industry standard mesoscale model outputs and offshore design codes including the American Bureau of Shipping, American Petroleum Institute, and DNV-GL guides. Significant variation in the vertical wind speed profile occurs throughout the year. This variation is not currently addressed in offshore wind design standards which typically recommend the use of only a few values for wind shear in operational and extreme conditions. The mean wind shears recorded were also higher than industry recommended values. Additionally, turbulence measurements made from the LiDAR, although not widely accepted in the scientific community, are presented and compared against industry guidelines.

A deep learning-based evolutionary model for short-term wind speed forecasting: A case study of the Lillgrund offshore wind farm

2021 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 114002
Author(s):  
Mehdi Neshat ◽  
Meysam Majidi Nezhad ◽  
Ehsan Abbasnejad ◽  
Seyedali Mirjalili ◽  
Lina Bertling Tjernberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Offshore Wind Farm ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting

scholarly journals Short-Term Forecasting of Wake-Induced Fluctuations in Offshore Wind Farms

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 2833
Author(s):  
Arslan Salim Dar ◽  
Lüder von Bremen
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Fluctuation ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Power Fluctuations

The increasing share of offshore wind energy traded at the spot market requires short term wind direction forecasts to determine wake losses and increased power fluctuations due to multiple wakes in certain wind directions. The information on potential power fluctuations can be used to issue early warnings to grid operators. The current work focuses on analyzing wind speed and power fluctuation time series for a German offshore wind farm. By associating these fluctuations with wind directions, it is observed that the turbines in double or multiple wake situations yield higher fluctuations in wind speed and power compared to the turbines in free flow. The wind direction forecasts of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model are compared with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data observations of the turbine yaw. The cumulative probability distribution of the difference in forecasted and observed wind directions shows that for a tolerance of +/−10 ∘ , 71% of the observations are correctly forecasted for a lead time of 1 day, which drops to 54% for a lead time of 3 days. The circular continuous rank probability score of the observed wind directions doubles over the lead time of 72 h.

scholarly journals Investigation of the Fetch Effect Using Onshore and Offshore Vertical LiDAR Devices

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susumu Shimada ◽  
Yuko Takeyama ◽  
Tetsuya Kogaki ◽  
Teruo Ohsawa ◽  
Satoshi Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Speed Increase ◽  
Optimal Distance ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Lidar Measurements ◽  
Height Increase ◽  
The Relationship

An offshore wind measurement campaign using vertical light detection and ranging (LiDAR) devices was conducted at the Hazaki Oceanographic Research Station (HORS) as part of an investigation into determining the optimal distance from the coast for a nearshore wind farm from a meteorological perspective. The research platform was a 427 m long pier located on a rectilinear coastline on the Pacific coast of the central Honshu Island in Japan. The relationship between the ratios of the increase of wind speed near the surface and fetch length within 5 km of the coast was analyzed via LiDAR observations taken at heights from 40 to 200 m. The results showed that the speed of the coastal wind blowing from land to sea gradually increased as the fetch length increased, by approximately 15–20% at 50 m above sea level around a fetch length of 2 km. Moreover, empirical equations were derived by applying the power law to the relationship between the increase of wind speed and fetch lengths at 1–5 km, as obtained from the LiDAR measurements. It was also found that the wind speed increase at a 2 km fetch length was equivalent to the effect of a 50–90 m vertical height increase on the coast in this region.

scholarly journals Experimental Study on Wake Evolution of a 1.5 MW Wind Turbine in a Complex Terrain Wind Farm Based on LiDAR Measurements

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 2467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Zhao ◽  
Yihan Gao ◽  
Tengyuan Wang ◽  
Jinsha Yuan ◽  
Xiaoxia Gao
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Asymmetric Distribution ◽  
Lidar Measurements ◽  
Wind Characteristics ◽  
The Development Trend

To study the wake development characteristics of wind farms in complex terrains, two different types of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) were used to conduct the field measurements in a mountain wind farm in Hebei Province, China. Under two different incoming wake conditions, the influence of wind shear, terrain and incoming wind characteristics on the development trend of wake was analyzed. The results showed that the existence of wind shear effect causes asymmetric distribution of wind speed in the wake region. The relief of the terrain behind the turbine indicated a subsidence of the wake centerline, which had a linear relationship with the topography altitudes. The wake recovery rates were calculated, which comprehensively validated the conclusion that the wake recovery rate is determined by both the incoming wind turbulence intensity in the wake and the magnitude of the wind speed.

Wind Power Short-Term Forcasting of BP Neural Network Based on the Small-World Optimization

2014 ◽  
Vol 933 ◽  
pp. 384-389
Author(s):  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Shuang Xin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Small World ◽  
Power Method ◽  
Short Term

Wind power short-term forcasting of BP neural network based on the small-world optimization is proposed. First, the initial data collected from wind farm are revised, and the unreasonable data are found out and revised. Second, the small-world optimization BP neural network model is proposed, and the model is used on the prediction method of wind speed and wind direction, and the prediction method of power. Finally, by simulation analysis, the NMAE and NRMSE of the power method are smaller than those of the wind speed and wind direction method when the wind power data of one hour later are predicted. When the power method are used to forecast the data one hour later, NMAE is 5.39% and NRMSE is 6.98%.

Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Prediction Using Fuzzy Information Granulation-Support Vector Machine

2012 ◽  
Vol 608-609 ◽  
pp. 814-817
Author(s):  
Xiao Fu ◽  
Dong Xiang Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fuzzy Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Fluctuation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Information Granulation ◽  
Fuzzy Information Granulation

The power fluctuation of wind turbine often causes serious problems in electricity grids. Therefore, short term prediction of wind speed and power as to eliminate the uncertainty determined crucially the development of wind energy. Compared with physical methods, support vector machine (SVM) as an intelligent artificial method is more general and shows better nonlinear modeling capacity. A model which combined fuzzy information granulation with SVM method was developed and implemented in short term future trend prediction of wind speed and power. The data, including the daily wind speed and power, from a wind farm in northern China were used to evaluate the proposed method. The prediction results show that the proposed model performs better and more stable than the standard SVM model when apply them into the same data set.

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