scholarly journals LONG-TERM MODEL AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF THE PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE IN BULGARIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 3911-3918
Author(s):  
Nikolay Atanasov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Public Health Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Term Model

Purpose: The aim of the study is to build a long-term model and conduct a Monte Carlo simulation of the public health expenditure (PHE) of Bulgaria with the gross domestic product (GDP) as an independent variable. Material/Methods: Statistical models are used for modeling the long-term dependence between the macroeconomic dynamic rows, testing of hypotheses of stationarity (Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests), for serial autocorrelation and others. Results: There is a well-defined, statistically significant long-term relationship between public health expenditure and gross domestic product. The long-term model of health expenditure has an estimate of the cointegration constant of 1.023 (p-value < 0.05). Monte Carlo simulations are presented with 1 000, 2 000 and 3 000 experiments, generated based on the normal distribution of the input variable. Conclusions: In the period after the year 1990, a well-defined long-term relationship between public health expenditure and GDP exists. The Monte Carlo simulation can be regarded as a reliable instrument for studying the most likely fluctuations in health expenditure caused by the GDP.

Empirical analysis of factors influencing the public health expenditure in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Kok Wooi Yap ◽  
Doris Padmini Selvaratnam
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Public Health Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Per Capita

This study aims to investigate the determinants of public health expenditure in Malaysia. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach proposed by Pesaran & Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) is applied to analyse annual time series data during the period from 1970 to 2017. The study focused on four explanatory variables, namely per capita gross domestic product (GDP), healthcare price index, population aged 65 years and above, as well as infant mortality rate. The bounds test results showed that the public health expenditure and its determinants are cointegrated. The empirical results revealed that the elasticity of government health expenditure with respect to national income is less than unity, indicating that public health expenditure in Malaysia is a necessity good and thus the Wagner’s law does not exist to explain the relationship between public health expenditure and economic growth in Malaysia. In the long run, per capita GDP, healthcare price index, population aged more than 65 years, and infant mortality rate are the important variables in explaining the behaviour of public health expenditure in Malaysia. The empirical results also prove that infant mortality rate is significant in influencing public health spending in the short run. It is noted that macroeconomic and health status factors assume an important role in determining the public health expenditure in Malaysia and thus government policies and strategies should be made by taking into account of these aspects.

scholarly journals The effect of social distancing on the reach of an epidemic in social networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Gutin ◽  
Tomohiro Hirano ◽  
Sung-Ha Hwang ◽  
Philip R. Neary ◽  
Alexis Akira Toda
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Simulation Results

AbstractHow does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a susceptible–infected–removed with social distancing model. The key feature of the model is that individuals are limited in the number of acquaintances that they can interact with, thereby constraining disease transmission to an infectious subnetwork of the original social network. While increased social distancing typically reduces the spread of an infectious disease, the magnitude varies greatly depending on the topology of the network, indicating the need for policies that are network dependent. Our results also reveal the importance of coordinating policies at the ‘global’ level. In particular, the public health benefits from social distancing to a group (e.g. a country) may be completely undone if that group maintains connections with outside groups that are not following suit.

scholarly journals Does intense electoral competition increase the government health expenditure in EAs?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeong Woo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Public Health Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Government Health ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Health Expenditure ◽  
High Level

<p></p><p>Does intense electoral competition in electoral autocracies (EAs) increase the government health expenditure? Previous studies on EAs and public health expenditure focus on the presence of multiparty elections in EAs as a significant determinant on the expenditure. Most of elections in EAs often are unfair because those are for the victory of dictators; hence. multiparty elections <i>per se</i> do not capture well-known impact of elections, such as the electoral competition increasing health expenditure. Some EAs pay health expenditure less than others even though electoral competition is high. This paper analyzes the effect of electoral competition on the government health expenditure with the balanced panel data of 20 EAs from 2001 to 2017. There are two rival arguments on how electoral competition affect the expenditure according to previous studies; (a) a high level of electoral competition indicates a difficulty of dictatorial winning in elections. Autocrats, hence, gather various demands including health issues from voters, and can increase the government health expenditure; (b) Autocrats pursue the victory in elections. Pork and personal benefits to voters rather than programmed policies are helpful for the victory. Therefore, there is no incentive for autocrats to provide government health expenditure to voters when the level of electoral competition is high. Empirical findings demonstrate that electoral competition in EAs lead the decrease of government health expenditure. This paper concludes that electoral competition does not increase the public health expenditure; the higher level of competition in autocracies does not mean that voters can exert their power to autocrats to realize policies.</p><br><p></p>

scholarly journals How the Chinese Government Has Done with Public Health from the Perspective of the Evaluation and Comparison about Public-Health Expenditure

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 9272
Author(s):  
Hui Jin ◽  
Xinyi Qian
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Public Health Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Chinese Public

The COVID-19 epidemic has crashed on the social and economic stability of China and even the world, and raised the question: how has the Chinese government done with public health in recent years? The purpose of this paper is to clarify the definition and items of Chinese public-health expenditure, then to objectively evaluate the Chinese government’s performance, so as to help the government to perform better in public health. To achieve this goal, we measure the Chinese public-health expenditure at national and provincial levels based on our definition, and then compare it with the expenditures of other countries. The results show that: (1) the level of public-health expenditure in China is relatively low and far lower than that in developed countries; (2) Chinese governments have not paid enough attention to the prevention and control of major public-health emergencies, which may be an important reason for the outbreak of COVID-19; (3) Chinese public-health expenditure shows a fluctuating growth trend, but the growth rate is so slow that it is lower than that of GDP and fiscal expenditure; (4) although the Chinese government inclines the public-health expenditure to the poor provinces in central and western regions, the imbalance and inequity of public-health resource allocation are still expanding among provinces; (5) there is a lot of waste of resources in the public-health system, which seriously reduces the efficiency of public-health expenditure in China. Therefore, the Chinese government should improve the quantity and quality of public-health expenditure in the above aspects.

scholarly journals Optimum Testing Strategy for COVID-19 and Its Effect on Health Expenditure in India: An Experience of the Initial 155 Days of the Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622098182
Author(s):  
Saswata Ghosh ◽  
Arup Kumar Das ◽  
Akhilesh Yadav
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Public Health Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Testing Rate

India has gradually increased its testing capacity of COVID-19 by mid-September 2020. However, the level of testing is substantially low in comparison with many high- and middle-income countries. Evidently, the pandemic in India is likely to be prolonged and affect millions in comparison to other countries, due to its huge population size. The possibility of a sudden upsurge of infections may turn overwhelming, jeopardising the health system, if an appropriate testing policy is not immediately adopted, given that the public health expenditure capacity of India has remained at a suboptimal level. Against this backdrop, a descriptive analysis has been carried out using the published data of the number of infections, tests and daily COVID-19 cases and public health expenditure data published by different sources and available in the public domain. The analysis suggests that a differential strategy is required to deal with the situation, which varies across states and depends upon the health spending capacity of individual states and their population size, among other factors. The specific strategy recommendations would be as follows. First, the testing rate should not be too high or too low, and this can be assessed using a marker: marginal return on testing. Second, India should follow the upper-middle-income-country standard in assessing the testing rate. Third, as a long-term strategy, there is a need to strengthen the public health system to avert a future catastrophe in the form of such pandemic.

scholarly journals Analysis of daily reproduction rates of COVID-19 using Current Health Expenditure as Gross Domestic Product percentage (CHE/GDP) across countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kayode Oshinubi ◽  
Mustapha Rachdi ◽  
Jacques Demongeot
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Current Health ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
Second Wave

(1) Background: Impact and severity of coronavirus pandemic on health infrastructure vary across countries. We examine the role percentage health expenditure plays in various countries in terms of their preparedness and see how countries improved their public health policy in the first and second wave of the coronavirus pandemic; (2) Methods: We considered the infectious period during the first and second wave of 195 countries with their Current Health Expenditure as Gross Domestic Product percentage (CHE/GDP). Exponential model was used to calculate the slope of the regression line while the ARIMA model was used to calculate the initial autocorrelation slope and also to forecast new cases for both waves. The relationship between epidemiologic and CHE/GDP data was used for processing ordinary least square multivariate modeling and classifying countries into different groups using PC analysis, K-means and Hierarchical clustering; (3) Results: Results show that some countries with high CHE/GDP improved their public health strategy against virus during the second wave of the pandemic; and (4) Conclusions: Results revealed that countries who spend more on health infrastructure improved in the tackling of the pandemic in the second wave as they were worst hit in the first wave. This research will help countries to decide on how to increase their CHE/GDP in order to tackle properly other pandemic waves of the present Covid-19 outbreak and future diseases that may occur. We are also opening up a debate on the crucial role socio-economic determinants play during the exponential phase of the pandemic modelling.

scholarly journals Analysis of Reproduction Number R0 of COVID-19 Using Current Health Expenditure as Gross Domestic Product Percentage (CHE/GDP) across Countries

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kayode Oshinubi ◽  
Mustapha Rachdi ◽  
Jacques Demongeot
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Current Health ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
Second Wave

(1) Background: Impact and severity of coronavirus pandemic on health infrastructure vary across countries. We examine the role percentage health expenditure plays in various countries in terms of their preparedness and see how countries improved their public health policy in the first and second wave of the coronavirus pandemic; (2) Methods: We considered the infectious period during the first and second wave of 195 countries with their current health expenditure as gross domestic product percentage (CHE/GDP). An exponential model was used to calculate the slope of the regression line while the ARIMA model was used to calculate the initial autocorrelation slope and also to forecast new cases for both waves. The relationship between epidemiologic and CHE/GDP data was used for processing ordinary least square multivariate modeling and classifying countries into different groups using PC analysis, K-means and hierarchical clustering; (3) Results: Results show that some countries with high CHE/GDP improved their public health strategy against virus during the second wave of the pandemic; (4) Conclusions: Results revealed that countries who spend more on health infrastructure improved in the tackling of the pandemic in the second wave as they were worst hit in the first wave. This research will help countries to decide on how to increase their CHE/GDP in order to properly tackle other pandemic waves of the present COVID-19 outbreak and future diseases that may occur. We are also opening up a debate on the crucial role socio-economic determinants play during the exponential phase of the pandemic modelling.

scholarly journals Does electoral competitiveness increase the government health expenditure in EAs?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeong Woo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Public Health Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Government Health ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Health Expenditure ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Electoral Competitiveness

<p>Previous studies on the public health expenditure focus on the presence of multiparty elections in electoral autocracies (EAs). Most of elections in EAs often are unfair because those are for the victory of dictators. Multiparty elections <i>per se</i> do not capture the impact of characteristics during elections such as the electoral competitiveness in EAs. Some EAs pay health expenditure less than others even though electoral competitiveness is high. I analyze the effect of electoral competitiveness on the government health expenditure with the balanced panel data of 20 EAs from 2001 to 2017. There are two rival arguments on how electoral competitiveness affect the expenditure according to previous studies; (a) a high level of electoral competitiveness stands for a difficulty of dictatorial winning in elections. Autocrats, hence, gather various demands including health issues from voters, and can increase the government health expenditure; (b) Autocrats pursue the victory in elections. Pork and personal benefits to voters rather than programmed policies are helpful for the victory. Therefore, there is no incentive for autocrats to provide government health policy to voters when the level of electoral competitiveness is high. Empirical findings demonstrate that electoral competitiveness in EAs lead the decrease of government health expenditure. This paper concludes that electoral competitiveness does not increase the public health expenditure; the higher level of competitiveness in autocracies does not mean that voters can exert their power to autocrats to realize policies.</p>

scholarly journals Does intense electoral competition increase the government health expenditure in EAs?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeong Woo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Public Health Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Government Health ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Health Expenditure ◽  
High Level

<p></p><p>Does intense electoral competition in electoral autocracies (EAs) increase the government health expenditure? Previous studies on EAs and public health expenditure focus on the presence of multiparty elections in EAs as a significant determinant on the expenditure. Most of elections in EAs often are unfair because those are for the victory of dictators; hence. multiparty elections <i>per se</i> do not capture well-known impact of elections, such as the electoral competition increasing health expenditure. Some EAs pay health expenditure less than others even though electoral competition is high. This paper analyzes the effect of electoral competition on the government health expenditure with the balanced panel data of 20 EAs from 2001 to 2017. There are two rival arguments on how electoral competition affect the expenditure according to previous studies; (a) a high level of electoral competition indicates a difficulty of dictatorial winning in elections. Autocrats, hence, gather various demands including health issues from voters, and can increase the government health expenditure; (b) Autocrats pursue the victory in elections. Pork and personal benefits to voters rather than programmed policies are helpful for the victory. Therefore, there is no incentive for autocrats to provide government health expenditure to voters when the level of electoral competition is high. Empirical findings demonstrate that electoral competition in EAs lead the decrease of government health expenditure. This paper concludes that electoral competition does not increase the public health expenditure; the higher level of competition in autocracies does not mean that voters can exert their power to autocrats to realize policies.</p><br><p></p>

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