scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-165
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
◽  
Seyed Hesam Ghodsi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Modelling Approach

When U.S. house prices were rising before the financial crisis of 2008, Case and Shiller (2003) argue that "income growth alone explains the pattern of recent home price increases in most states¨. Then can the decline in income after 2008 explain for the burst and abnormal decrease in house prices? Alternatively we ask whether the effects of income on house prices are symmetric or asymmetric. We employ quarterly data from each of the states in the U.S. and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach of Shin et al. (2014) to show that indeed, household income changes do have asymmetric effects on house prices in most of the states in the U.S. While adjustment asymmetry is borne out by the results in all states, asymmetric short-run impact is evidenced in 18 states and significant asymmetric long-run impact in 21 states.

scholarly journals Asymmetric effects of rainfall on food crop prices: evidence from Rwanda

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimable Nsabimana ◽  
Olivier Habimana
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Food Crop ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crop Varieties ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Food Affordability ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

This study examined the effects of the likely change in rainfall on food crop prices in Rwanda, a landlocked country where agriculture is mainly rain-fed. The empirical investigation is based on nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag cointegration framework, which incorporates an error correction mechanism and allows estimation of asymmetric long-run and short-run dynamic coefficients. The results suggest that food crop prices are vulnerable to rainfall shocks and that the effect is asymmetric in both the short and long run. Moreover, there was evidence of seasonal differences, with prices falling during harvest season and rising thereafter. Considering the ongoing threat of global climate change, and in order to cope with rainfall shortage and uncertainty, increase food affordability and ultimately ensure food security throughout the year, there is a need to develop and distribute food crop varieties and crop technologies that reduce the vulnerability of farming to rainfall shocks.

scholarly journals Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness in Vietnam: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 120
Author(s):  
Jen-Yao Lee ◽  
Ya-Chuan Hsiao ◽  
Ngochien Bui ◽  
Tien-Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Inward Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

This study aims to examine the asymmetric relationship between trade openness and FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows to Vietnam by using NARDL (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag) during the period from 1997 to 2019. Our findings show that the influence of FDI on trade openness is asymmetric in the short-run and long-run. But the influence of trade openness on FDI is symmetric in the short-run and asymmetric in the long run.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Effects of Remittances on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence From Non-linear ARDL Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Oluseun Olayungbo ◽  
Clement Olalekan Olaniyi ◽  
Titus Ayobami Ojeyinka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Linear Effects ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Nardl Model

Abstract Most of the extant studies on remittance-growth nexus have been limited to symmetric and linear effects of remittance on economic growth. Unlike previous studies, we examine asymmetric and nonlinear association between remittance and economic growth within the framework of nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model utilizing Nigeria’s data from 1981 to 2018. The study finds the evidence to support that growth responds asymmetrically to remittances only in the long-run. It is established that both positive and negative variations in remittance inflows dampen the productive base of the economy in the long-run while positive and negative changes in remittances are growth-retarding and growth-enhancing respectively in the short-run. The study, therefore, concludes that persistent increase in remittance inflows have not been channeled to productive ventures that are capable of stimulating growth in Nigeria. Thus, consistent with the view of pessimistic theorists, continual inflows of remittances to Nigeria could not be termed brain gains to the economy. JEL CLASSIFICATION: F24, F43, O11

scholarly journals Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach: An Application on the Connectedness between Bitcoin Returns and the Other Ten Most Relevant Cryptocurrency Returns

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 810 ◽  
Author(s):  
María de la O González ◽  
Francisco Jareño ◽  
Frank S. Skinner
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

This article examines the connectedness between Bitcoin returns and returns of ten additional cryptocurrencies for several frequencies—daily, weekly, and monthly—over the period January 2015–March 2020 using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. We find important and positive interdependencies among cryptocurrencies and significant long-run relationships among most of them. In addition, non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency returns seem to react in the same way to positive and negative changes in Bitcoin returns, obtaining strong evidence of asymmetry in the short run. Finally, our results show high persistence in the impact of both positive and negative changes in Bitcoin returns on most of the other cryptocurrency returns. Thus, our model explains about 50% of the other cryptocurrency returns with changes in Bitcoin returns.

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (27) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
Okpeku Lilian ONOSE ◽  
◽  
Osman Nuri ARAS ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The export-led growth hypothesis states a positive relationship between the growth of exports and long-run economic growth. This study examines the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis of services exports in 5 emerging economies, including Brazil, India, Nigeria, China, and South Africa (BINCS), for the period of 1980-2019. The study employs the panel mean group autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure to identify a causal relationship between services exports and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The findings show that the export-led growth hypothesis in services only has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run while other variables, including foreign direct investment (FDI), gross capital formation, and labour, increase economic growth in the long run. Hence, the emerging countries should focus more on internal investment to boost growth in the long and short run.

scholarly journals FDI location and exchange rates. is there really a relationship between the two?

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 642-651
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Exact Nature ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The exchange rate led foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI led exchange rates and feedback effect hypotheses summarise the literature around the nature of the relationship between FDI and exchange rates. So many authors on this subject over a long period have been found to generally side with of the above-mentioned hypothesis or another without a consensus. Despite this lack of consensus with regard to the exact nature of the causal relation between these two variables, what is coming out clearly from the literature is that there indeed exist a relationship between FDI and exchange rates. The lack of consensus has prompted this current study that used the ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag)-bounds testing approach. The study revealed the existence of causality from (1) the rand value to FDI in the long run and (2) FDI to the rand value only in the short run in South Africa. The author recommends that policies which strengthen the value of the rand should be put in place in order to attract FDI in the long run. The flow of FDI into South Africa will in turn not only stabilises the value of the rand.

scholarly journals The Causal Connection between CO2 Emissions and Agricultural Productivity in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rehman ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk ◽  
Deyuan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Food Grains ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Total Food ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Seed Distribution

The rapid agricultural development and mechanization of agronomic diligence has led to a significant growth in energy consumption and CO2 emission. Agriculture has a dominant contribution to boosting the economy of any country. In this paper, we demonstrate carbon dioxide emissions’ association with cropped area, energy use, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita, improved seed distribution, total food grains and water availability in Pakistan for the period of 1987-2017. We employed Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests to examine the variables’ stationarity. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique to cointegration was applied to demonstrate the causality linkage among study variables from the evidence of long-run and short-run analyses. The long-run evidence reveals that cropped area, energy usage, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita and water availability have a positive and significant association with carbon dioxide emissions, while the analysis results of improved seed distribution and total food grains have a negative association with carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. Overall, the long-run effects are stronger than the short-run dynamics, in terms of the impact of explanatory variables on carbon dioxide emission, thus making the findings heterogeneous. Possible initiatives should be taken by the government of Pakistan to improve the agriculture sector and also introduce new policies to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

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