scholarly journals Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach: An Application on the Connectedness between Bitcoin Returns and the Other Ten Most Relevant Cryptocurrency Returns

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 810 ◽  
Author(s):  
María de la O González ◽  
Francisco Jareño ◽  
Frank S. Skinner
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

This article examines the connectedness between Bitcoin returns and returns of ten additional cryptocurrencies for several frequencies—daily, weekly, and monthly—over the period January 2015–March 2020 using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. We find important and positive interdependencies among cryptocurrencies and significant long-run relationships among most of them. In addition, non-Bitcoin cryptocurrency returns seem to react in the same way to positive and negative changes in Bitcoin returns, obtaining strong evidence of asymmetry in the short run. Finally, our results show high persistence in the impact of both positive and negative changes in Bitcoin returns on most of the other cryptocurrency returns. Thus, our model explains about 50% of the other cryptocurrency returns with changes in Bitcoin returns.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110271
Author(s):  
Ibrar Hussain ◽  
Jawad Hussain ◽  
Arshad Ali ◽  
Shabir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Empirical Calibration ◽  
Short Run ◽  
S Model ◽  
The Impact

This study claims to be the first in assessing the short-run and long-run impacts of both the size and composition of fiscal adjustment on the growth in Pakistan. Empirical calibration has been made on Mankiw et al.’s model, while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques of Pesaran et al. have been employed to carry out the estimation. To cure the problem of degenerate cases, the ARDL techniques have been augmented with the model of Sam et al. The analysis supports the hypothesis of “expansionary fiscal contraction” in the long run. The analysis reveals that the spending-based adjustment enhances the economic growth, whereas the tax-based adjustment would reduce the growth in the long run in the case of Pakistan. The Granger causality test indicates that the fiscal adjustments have been weakly exogenous, thereby allowing feedback effect from the economic growth toward the fiscal adjustment. Thus, the objective of sustained economic growth can be achieved through the spending-based consolidation measures.

scholarly journals The Nexus Among Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment in Bhutan

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 94-105
Author(s):  
Ugyen Tenzin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Employment Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

In order to understand the dynamics of unemployment in Bhutan at a macro-level, this study has explored the association among economic growth, inflation and unemployment from 1998 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to estimate the impact of economic growth and inflation on unemployment. The results of this empirical analysis suggest that economic growth had no impact on the reduction of unemployment rate in Bhutan both in the short and in the long run. In fact, as the economic growth increased, so did the unemployment rate. However, inflation had a negative association with unemployment rate in the short run and a positive association in the long run. In other words, an increase in the employment rate led to an increase in the inflation in the short run. Likewise, if inflation is not monitored or controlled, the uncertainty of inflation can lead to lower investment and lower economic growth, thereby causing unemployment to rise in the long run. This study, therefore, recommends policymakers to take into account the employment elasticity with respect to economic output and focus on sectors, which have more absorptive capacity in engaging the young labour market entrants. JEL: B22, C22, E24, E31

scholarly journals A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis of the FTSE and S&P500 Indexes

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
David Allen ◽  
Michael McAleer
Keyword(s):  
Weak Form ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Quantile Regression Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The paper features an examination of the link between the behaviour of the FTSE 100 and S&P500 Indexes in both an autoregressive distributed lag ARDL, plus a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag NARDL framework. The attraction of NARDL is that it represents the simplest method available of modelling combined short- and long-run asymmetries. The bounds testing framework adopted means that it can be applied to stationary and non-stationary time series vectors, or combinations of both. The data comprise a daily FTSE adjusted price series, commencing in April 2009 and terminating in March 2021, and a corresponding daily S&P500 Index adjusted-price series obtained from Yahoo Finance. The data period includes all the gyrations caused by the Brexit vote in the UK, beginning with the vote to leave in 2016 and culminating in the actual agreement to withdraw in January 2020. It was then followed by the impact of the global spread of COVID-19 from the beginning of 2020. The results of the analysis suggest that movements in the contemporaneous levels of daily S&P500 Index levels have very significant effects on the behaviour of the levels of the daily FTSE 100 Index. They also suggest that negative movements have larger impacts than do positive movements in S&P500 levels, and that long-term multiplier impacts take about 10 days to take effect. These effects are supported by the results of quantile regression analysis. A key result is that weak form market efficiency does not apply in the second period.

scholarly journals The impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth: A multivariate analysis for Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (221) ◽  
pp. 65-83
Author(s):  
Biçerli Kemal ◽  
Merve Kocaman
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to research the impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth for the Turkish economy. The data used is monthly and covers the period from January 2005 to March 2017. The producer price index represents prices and the industrial production index represents growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to see the effect of the minimum wage on these variables. An error-correction based Granger causality test is then conducted to see short-run and long-run causalities. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between variables. The obtained ARDL results also show that while the minimum wage has a statistically significant effect on unemployment and prices, it does not have a statistically significant effect on production. While there is short-run causality from minimum wage to prices only, the obtained significant error correction terms indicate long-run causality for all of the variables. Consequently, the minimum wage plays a significant role in increasing prices and the number of unemployed people in Turkey.

scholarly journals Determinantes da confiança do consumidor e dinâmica da política monetária no Brasil

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Rafaela Maiara Caetano ◽  
Cleomar Gomes Da Silva
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Econometric Methodology

<p>The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of consumer confidence in Brazil and possible impacts on monetary policy actions. The econometric methodology applied is based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models, particularly the Bounds Testing (ARDL) Approach to Cointegration. For monthly data between January 2003 and December 2016, the empirical results suggest that there is a long run relationship between consumer confidence and the other variables analyzed. As for short-run dynamics, the error correction mechanism varies between 1.9% and 8.7%, depending on the estimated model. This suggests that economic variables influence consumer confidence, and when there is a break in confidence, its recovery is very slow.</p>

scholarly journals Asymmetric effects of rainfall on food crop prices: evidence from Rwanda

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimable Nsabimana ◽  
Olivier Habimana
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Food Crop ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crop Varieties ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Food Affordability ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

This study examined the effects of the likely change in rainfall on food crop prices in Rwanda, a landlocked country where agriculture is mainly rain-fed. The empirical investigation is based on nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag cointegration framework, which incorporates an error correction mechanism and allows estimation of asymmetric long-run and short-run dynamic coefficients. The results suggest that food crop prices are vulnerable to rainfall shocks and that the effect is asymmetric in both the short and long run. Moreover, there was evidence of seasonal differences, with prices falling during harvest season and rising thereafter. Considering the ongoing threat of global climate change, and in order to cope with rainfall shortage and uncertainty, increase food affordability and ultimately ensure food security throughout the year, there is a need to develop and distribute food crop varieties and crop technologies that reduce the vulnerability of farming to rainfall shocks.

scholarly journals Symmetric and asymmetric effects of financial development on carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria: Evidence from linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag analyses

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 2059-2078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip C Omoke ◽  
Silva Opuala-Charles ◽  
Chinazaekpere Nwani
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

This study examines the impact of financial development on carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria over the period 1971–2014. Income per capita, energy consumption, exchange rate and urbanization are incorporated in the analysis. The empirical analysis based on linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag techniques provides evidence of long-run relationship among the variables in Nigeria. The results in general show that financial development has significant asymmetric effects on carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria. Both short-run and long-run analyses show that the impact of positive changes in financial development on carbon dioxide emissions is significantly different from that of negative changes. The results suggest that in Nigeria positive shocks in financial development have significant reducing effect on carbon dioxide emissions, while negative shocks in financial development have significant increasing effect on carbon dioxide emissions. The empirical results also show that the response of carbon dioxide emissions to negative shocks in financial development is stronger. Based on these findings, this study concludes that mitigation policies would need to incorporate strategies to strengthen the depth of financial intermediation in the Nigerian economy.

scholarly journals Prospects for the Development of Russian Export in the Context of Digitalization

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Klimakova ◽  
Alireza Nasiri
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Transport Equipment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The global trend in digitization has revolution the global economy and the way of doing business in our world currently. The digital trend is instrumental to globalization and specifically international trade. In Russia, the application of digitization is relatively low compared to other emerging economies. Therefore, it becomes interesting to assess the prospects of digitization in increasing export of the country and extensively, if such influence on export is industrial sensitive. To accomplish this, we assessed industrial export of Russia and used panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique to determine the impact of digitization on Russia’s export. By implementing Mean Group (MG) estimator which was adjudged to be suitable for this model through the Hausman test, it could be revealed that the impact of digitization is more intense in the short-run. The long-run effect is not statistically significant. Based on industries, digitization is significantly responsible for the export of Crude materials, inedible, except fuels; and Machinery and transport equipment in the short-run while also contributes to the long-run increase in export of Beverages and tobacco. The prospect can be increased when the country adapts and adopts more in the global trend.

scholarly journals Policy, Institutions and Non-Oil Exports: Evidence from Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Martins Iyoboyi ◽  
Abdelrasaq Na-Allah
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

<p>In this paper, the impact of policy and institutions on non-oil exports in Nigeria is investigated, using data from secondary sources for the period 1961-2012, and implemented through the autoregressive distributed lag framework. Non-oil exports were found to have a long-run equilibrium relationship with policy and institutional variables. Money supply and exchange rate were found to be positively associated with and statistically significant determinants of non-oil exports in the long and short run. Fiscal deficit, interest rate, ‘constraints on the executive’ and openness were found to be inversely related to non-oil exports in both the short and long run. While inflation was found to be negatively related to non-oil exports in the short run, it is the reverse in the long run. An enhanced political institutional framework is required, that is attuned to growth in the non-oil sector of the economy, as a mechanism for improving the country’s non-oil exports.</p>

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