scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-396
Author(s):  
Gary Wai Chung Wong ◽  
◽  
Lok Sang Ho ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Expectations ◽  
Price Expectation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Explicit Consideration

This paper builds on the literature that shows policy often plays a key role in housing cycles. Using the cointegration approach which focuses on the supply and demand dynamics of the housing market, and with explicit consideration of housing price expectations proxied by the price-earning ratio in financial markets, this paper identifies two cointegrating relations: a long run demand-side relation that involves housing property price, interest rate, price expectation and income; and a supply-side relation that involves private housing completion, property price, interest rate, and building and land costs. Based on Hong Kong data from 1990 a£á¡§ 2012, which covers big cycles in the housing market, this paper suggests that policies to augment or restrain housing supply in the attempt to stabilize housing prices have been counterproductive.

Long-run drivers and integration in interprovincial Canadian housing price relations

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay Kumar Vishwakarma
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stochastic Trend ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Purpose This paper aims to examine the integration of housing markets in Canada by examining housing price data (1999–2016) of six metropolitan areas in different provinces, namely, Calgary, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax. The authors test for cointegration, driver cities of long-run relationships, long-run Granger causality and instantaneous causality in light of the global financial crisis (GFC) (2007–2008). Design/methodology/approach The authors use Johansen’s system cointegration approach with structural breaks. Moving average representation is used for common stochastic trend(s) analysis. Finally, the authors apply vector error correction model-based Granger causality and instantaneous causality. Findings Cities’ housing prices are in long-run equilibrium. Post-crisis Canadian housing markets became more integrated. The Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal markets drive the Canadian housing market, leading all cities toward long-run equilibrium. Strong long-run Granger causality exists, but the authors observe no instantaneous causality. Price information takes time to disseminate, and long-run price adjustments play a significant role in causation. Practical implications The findings of cointegration increasing after the GFC and strong lead–lag can be used by investors to arbitrage and optimize portfolios. This can also help national and local policymakers in mitigating risk. Incorporating these findings can lead to better price forecasting. Originality/value This study presents many novelties for the Canadian housing market: it is the first to use repeat-sales regional pricing indices to test long-run behaviors, conduct common stochastic trend analyzes and present causality relations.

scholarly journals Housing Price, Mortgage Interest Rate and Immigration

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 36-44
Author(s):  
Fennee Chong
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Mortgage Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Mortgage Interest Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

AbstractHousing price in New Zealand has appreciated substantially after the Global Financial Crisis, resulting in an affordability problem for first home buyers. This paper studies whether changes in immigration activity and mortgage interest rate influence housing price. Empirical findings derived using VECM confirm the impact of immigration and mortgage interest rate on housing property price. Both variables explain 11.4 percent of the variation of Housing Index. An increase of 1 percent in mortgage interest rate would reduce the housing index movement by 1.44 percent whilst a 1 percent increase in immigrants would increase the housing index by 0.30 percent. In addition, about 2 percent of the short-run deviations of housing prices are adjusted towards the long-run equilibrium each month.

scholarly journals Las Cruces housing price fluctuations

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven L. Fullerton ◽  
James H. Holcomb ◽  
Thomas M. Fullerton Jr
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
National Housing

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the median price for existing single-family housing units in Las Cruces, New Mexico. The proposed theoretical model accounts for the interplay between supply and demand sides of a metropolitan housing market. Design/methodology/approach This study analyzes the median price for existing single-family housing units in Las Cruces, New Mexico. The proposed theoretical model accounts for the interplay between supply and demand sides of a metropolitan housing market. Explanatory variables used in the analysis are real per capita income, the housing stock, real mortgage rates, real apartment rents and the median real price of single-family units in the USA. Annual frequency data are collected for a 1971–2017 sample period. Parameter estimation is completed using two-stage generalized least squares. Empirical results confirm several, but not all, of the hypotheses associated with the underlying analytical model. In particular, Las Cruces housing prices are found to be reliably correlated with local income and national housing prices. Findings Empirical results confirm several of the hypotheses associated with the underlying analytical model. In particular, Las Cruces housing prices are found to be reliably correlated with local income and national housing prices. Research limitations/implications Results obtained support only a subset of the hypothetical relationships associated with the theoretical model. Additional testing for other small and/or medium sized is required to clarify whether these outcomes are unique to Las Cruces. Practical implications Local income fluctuations and national housing price fluctuations appear to be reliably related to housing price fluctuations for this metropolitan economy. Originality/value Comparatively little housing market research has been conducted for small and medium size urban economies. There is no guarantee that results obtained for large metropolitan housing markets are representative of smaller regional housing markets. The model developed has fairly moderate data requirements and may be applicable to other small and medium size economies such as Las Cruces.

scholarly journals Impact of Property Tax on Housing-Market Disequilibrium in Different Regions: Evidence from Taiwan for the period 1982–2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-Hau Lin ◽  
Jia-Hsun Li ◽  
Jing-Chzi Hsieh ◽  
Xianjin Huang ◽  
Jia-Tsong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Property Tax ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Market Disequilibrium

Although Taiwan has had a unique property tax system for a long time, oversupply and increasing prices have persisted in the regional market during recent decades. In order to shed light on this problem, this study investigated the impact of property taxation on housing markets in different regions from a disequilibrium viewpoint based on the stock-flow model. The panel data of 20 counties or cities in Taiwan for the period from 1982 to 2016 was examined. The empirical findings verified that housing price was the most important factor for influencing the long-run housing supply and demand in regions both with and without oversupply. The low interest rate policy was an important factor driving the long-run housing demand, but only in over-supply regions. The current property tax system cannot impact the long-run housing demand, only the short-run demand in both regions. Moreover, the property tax cannot effectively disturb the supply behavior in the long-run in both regions. This study also confirmed that housing-market disequilibrium existed in regions both with and without oversupply, making up the gap. The property tax’s impact on the adjustment speed to long-run equilibrium in over-supply regions was weaker than under-supply regions.

scholarly journals Quantitative Estimation and Spatiotemporal Characteristic Analysis of Price Deviation in China's Housing Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoping Zhou ◽  
Zhenyang Qin ◽  
Yingjie Zhang ◽  
Linyi Zhao ◽  
Yan Song
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Yangtze River Delta ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Pearl River Delta Region ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Using Data

Differences in housing prices and rental prices across cities or regions and the relationship between prices and socioeconomic fundamentals are frequent research foci in urban and real estate economics, but the existing studies on China's housing market rarely consider both housing price and rent. This study provides a framework for a quantitative analysis of a country's housing market from the perspective of supply and demand, and takes China's housing market as a case study. The current study first explores the key factors that affect housing prices and rental prices using data from 202 cities and collected from 2011 to 2014. Then, theoretical values of housing prices and rental prices in each city are estimated, and the spatiotemporal characteristics of deviation of housing prices and rental prices are analysed. The empirical findings of the current study mainly reveal the following three points. First, the determinants of housing prices and rental prices have similarities. Second, the effect of above factors shows obvious spatial heterogeneity. The coefficients of the variables are different between coastal and inland regions, indicating different demand and supply elasticities across regions. Third, the price deviation presents significant spatial agglomeration. Cities with higher price deviations are clustered in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, while the price deviations are relatively mild in the Pearl River Delta region.

scholarly journals Are There Any Housing Bubbles in Turkey?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özge Korkmaz ◽  
Ebru Çağlayan Akay ◽  
Hoşeng Bülbül
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
The Past ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Housing Bubbles ◽  
Turkish Lira

It is very important that the housing market, which meets the most basic need of people is needed for shelter from the past to the present, has a stable structure. The instability structure of the housing market is generally associated with the presence of housing bubbles. The deviation of housing prices from their basic value and not being able to be explained by economic fundamentals leads to the formation of housing bubbles. Housing bubbles can lead to permanent losses, as it may take a long time to return to normal prices. For Turkey as a developing country, it is important to identify an unstable structure in house prices discuss the basic economic factors related to this. After the global increases in housing prices, inflation, and depreciation in the Turkish lira, Turkey has become the country with the highest housing price increases globally in 2020. In the study, the presence of bubbles in the housing market for Ankara, Izmir, Istanbul, and Turkey in general, was investigated by SADF and GSADF unit root tests for the period 2010:01-2021:02. In this context, the study examines the presence of bubbles in housing prices for Ankara, Izmir, Istanbul, and Turkey in general, which are the three cities with the highest price increases. As a result of the study, the presence of bubbles in the housing market has been determined for Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, and Turkey in general.

Property investor decisions using income and rental ratio signals

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Billie Ann Brotman
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Real Estate Prices

PurposeThis paper, a case study, aims to consider whether the income ratio and rental ratio tracks the formation of residential housing price spikes and their collapse. The ratios are measuring the risk associated with house price stability. They may signal whether a real estate investor should consider purchasing real property, continue holding it or consider selling it. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas Fed) calculates and publishes income ratios for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries to measure “irrational exuberance,” which is a measure of housing price risk for a given country's housing market. The USA is a member of the organization. The income ratio idea is being repurposed to act as a buy/sell signal for real estate investors.Design/methodology/approachThe income ratio calculated by the Dallas Fed and this case study's ratio were date-stamped and graphed to determine whether the 2006–2008 housing “bubble and burst” could be visually detected. An ordinary least squares regression with the data transformed into logs and a regression with structural data breaks for the years 1990 through 2019 were modeled using the independent variables income ratio, rent ratio and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The descriptive statistics show a gradual increase in the ratios prior to exposure to an unexpected, exogenous financial shock, which took several months to grow and collapse. The regression analysis with breaks indicates that the income ratio can predict changes in housing prices using a lead of 2 months.FindingsThe gradual increases in the ratios with predetermine limits set by the real estate investor may trigger a sell decision when a specified rate is reached for the ratios even when housing prices are still rising. The independent variables were significant, but the rent ratio had the correct sign only with the regression with time breaks model was used. The housing spike using the Dallas Fed's income ratio and this study's income ratio indicated that the housing boom and collapse occurred rapidly. The boom does not appear to be a continuous housing price increase followed by a sudden price drop when ratio analysis is used. The income ratio is significant through time, but the rental ratio and Consumer Sentiment Index are insignificant for multiple-time breaks.Research limitations/implicationsInvestors should consider the relative prices of residential housing in a neighborhood when purchasing a property coupled with income and rental ratio trends that are taking place in the local market. High relative income ratios may signal that when an unexpected adverse event occurs the housing market may enter a state of crisis. The relative housing prices to income ratio indicates there is rising housing price stability risk. Aggregate data for the country are used, whereas real estate prices are also significantly impacted by local conditions.Practical implicationsRatio trends might enable real estate investors and homeowners to determine when to sell real estate investments prior to a price collapse and preserve wealth, which would otherwise result in the loss of equity. Higher exuberance ratios should result in an increase in the discount rate, which results in lower valuations as measured by the formula net operating income dividend by the discount rate. It can also signal when to start reinvesting in real estate, because real estate prices are rising, and the ratios are relative low compared to income.Social implicationsThe graphical descriptive depictions seem to suggest that government intervention into the housing market while a spike is forming may not be possible due to the speed with which a spike forms and collapses. Expected income declines would cause the income ratios to change and signal that housing prices will start declining. Both the income and rental ratios in the US housing market have continued to increase since 2008.Originality/valueA consumer sentiment variable was added to the analysis. Prior researchers have suggested adding a consumer sentiment explanatory variable to the model. The results generated for this variable were counterintuitive. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) price index results signaled a change during a different year than when the S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index is used. Many prior studies used the FHFA price index. They emphasized regulatory issues associated with changing exuberance ratio levels. This case study applies these ideas to measure relative increases in risk, which should impact the discount rate used to estimate the intrinsic value of a residential property.

scholarly journals Housing Prices in Unregulated Markets: Study on Verticalised Dwellings in Santiago de Chile

Buildings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Francisco Vergara-Perucich ◽  
Carlos Aguirre-Nuñez
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Santiago De Chile ◽  
Data Transparency

Chile faces a housing affordability crisis, given that most of the population is unable to secure a house. While housing prices between 2008 and 2019 increased by 63.96%, wages only increased by 21.85%. This article presented an analysis of the housing price configuration for the main borough in the country—Santiago. The assessment focused on verticalised housing constructed between 2015 and 2019. The article developed an exploratory study on the price of housing in Santiago to generate a diagnosis to identify the role played by expectations of profitability when configuring price. Based on the information generated, we sought to contribute to the discussion on public policies that advance the development of affordable housing in central boroughs with high urban value, as is the case for Santiago’s borough of Greater Santiago. We hypothesised that profit expectation of real estate developers plays a key role in the housing prices, and an adjustment in the profit ratios might increase the affordability while keeping the housing market above profitable rates. This research addressed the lack of data transparency in the Chilean housing market with archival research, reconstructing costs and earnings from projects based on official registrations of transactions at the borough level. In Chile, the access to investment costs, land values, yields, and house price formation are not publicly available, even though these factors imply that many households are facing severe difficulties in paying for and accessing decent housing.

scholarly journals Urban Structure, Subway Systemand Housing Price: Evidence from Beijing and Hangzhou, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 669 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqi Zhang ◽  
Yanqiao Zheng ◽  
Lei Sun ◽  
Qiwen Dai
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Urban Structure ◽  
Constrained Clustering ◽  
The Core ◽  
Urban Core ◽  
Subway System ◽  
The Relationship

Using housing market data of Beijing and Hangzhou, China, we conduct a case study to detect how the difference of urban structure can affect the relationship between the subway system and housing prices. To quantify the characteristics of urban structure, we propose a constrained clustering method, which can not only reveal the spatial heterogeneity of the housing market, but also provides a link between heterogeneity and the underlying urban structure. Applying constrained clustering to Beijing and Hangzhou, we find that the relationship between accessibility to metro stations and housing prices is weak and vulnerable, while the improvement of commuting efficiency, measured by a key variable, the metro index, does have a robust connection to metro premium on housing units. In particular, only a large metro index can be associated with a positive metro premium. Structural features, such as the size of urban core and the existence of multiple sub-centers, influence the metro premium by affecting the value and spatial distribution of the metro index. The evidence from Beijing and Hangzhou supports that in a mono-centric city, the size of the urban core is positively associated with the metro index and the metro premium, while in a poly-centric city with a small urban core, the metro index tends to be lower in the core region and higher in the satellite regions, which enforces the metro premium to be negative in the core while positive outside of the core.

scholarly journals Untangling the nonlinear “knots” of UK’s housing prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1083-1103
Author(s):  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Sofoklis Vogiazas
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk

Purpose Housing prices in the UK offer an inspiring, yet a complex and under-explored research area. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the critical factors that affect UK’s housing prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors utilize the recently developed nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) over the period 1969–2016. Findings The authors find that both the long-run and short-run impact of the price-to-rent (PTR) ratio and credit-to-GDP ratio on house prices (HP) is asymmetric whilst ambiguous results are established for mortgage rates, industrial production and equities. Apart from the novel framework of analysis, this study also establishes a positive association between HP and the PTR ratio which suggests a speculative behaviour and could imply the formation of a housing bubble. Originality/value It is the first study for the UK housing market that explores the underlying fundamental relationships by looking at nonlinearities hence, allowing HP to be tied by asymmetric relationships in the long as well as in the short run. Modelling the inherent nonlinearities enhances significantly the understanding of UK housing market which can prove useful for policymaking and forecasting purposes.

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