scholarly journals Forecast of weather parameters using time series data

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 509-520
Author(s):  
A.K. SHUKLA ◽  
Y.A. GARDE ◽  
INA JAIN
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Weather Parameters

The present study is undertaken to develop area specific weather forecasting models based on time series data for Pantnagar, Uttarakhand. The study was carried out by using time series secondary monthly weather data of 27 years (from 1981-82 to 2007-08). The trend analysis of weather parameters was done by Mann-Kendall test statistics. The methodologies adopted to forecast weather parameters were the winter’s exponential smoothing model and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Comparative study has been carried out by using forecast error percentage and mean square error. The study showed that knowledge of this trend is likely to be helpful in planning and production of enterprises/crops. The study of forecast models revealed that SARIMA model is the most efficient model for forecasting of monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature and monthly humidity I. The Winter’s model was found to be the most efficient model for forecasting Monthly Humidity II but no model was found to be appropriate to forecast monthly total rainfall.

scholarly journals Examination of Temperature Variability over Lahore (Pakistan) and Dhaka (Bangladesh): A Comparative Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 46-50
Author(s):  
Khadija Shakrullah ◽  
Safdar Ali Shirazi ◽  
Sajjad Hussain Sajjad ◽  
Zartab Jahan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Average Model ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Mega Cities

Lahore and Dhaka are rapid expanding and over populated cities of South Asia located in Pakistan andBangladesh respectively. The present study focuses on the evaluation of temperature variability in comparison of bothcities. This study primarily aims at the assessment and examination of temperature variations in both mega cities ofSouth Asia which are seasonal as well as the annual. The time series data were analysed by using statistical techniquesAutoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Average Model (ARIMA). The resultsreveal that the minimum temperature is increasing much faster than that of the maximum temperature of both cities.However, the temperature rise(in maximum and minimum) has been observed highest during the spring seasons in bothcities.

scholarly journals Food Predictive Anatomization using Time Series

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 14-17
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Average Model ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Auto Regressive

Time series survey and forecasting upcoming values has been a research focus past years ago. Time series analysis and predict The time-series data finds its importance in various roles of implementation such as business, stock market exchange, weather forecasting, electricity demand, cost and usage of products such as fuels, etc. In this project, a detailed survey of the various techniques applied for forecasting different method of time series datasets are provided. Moving average model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with a case study on food predictive analysis time series data with R software.

A Pragmatic Study on Time Series Models for Big Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
B. Arputhamary ◽  
L. Arockiam
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bike Sharing ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
The Given

Recent years have witnessed the growth of Big Data, particularly Time Series data which initiates major research interest in Time Series analysis and forecasting future values. It finds interest in many applications such as business, stock market and exchange, weather forecasting, electricity demand, cost and usage of products and in any kind of place that has specific seasonal or trendy changes over time. The forecasting of Time Series data provides the organization with useful information that is necessary for making important decisions. In this paper, a detailed study is performed to find the total number of bike users with respect to the season and weather on Capital Bike Sharing System (CBS) dataset. The study covers the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Holt-Winters Additive and Multiplicative forecasting models to analyse the seasonal and trendy fluctuations of the given dataset to improve performance and accuracy.

scholarly journals Weather Prediction for Tourism Application using Time Series Algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 406-412
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Fine Grained

Precise projections of future events are crucial in many areas, one of which is the tourism sector. Usually counter-trials and towns spend a enormous quantity of cash in planning and preparation to accommodate (and benefit) visitors. Precisely predicting the amount of visits in the days or months, that follow would benefit the economy and tourists both. Previous studies in this field investigate predictions for a nation as a whole rather than for fine-grained fields within a nation. Weather forecasting has drawn the attention of many scientists from distinct research communities due to its impact on human life globally. The developing deep learning methods coupled with the wide accessibility of huge weather observation data and the advancement of machine learning algorithms has motivated many scientists to investigate hidden hierarchical patterns for weather forecasting in large amounts of weather data over the previous century. To predict climate information accurately, heavy statistical algorithms are used on the big quantity of historical information. Time series Analysis enables us know the fundamental forces leading to a specific trend in time series data points and enables us to predict and monitor information points by fitting suitable models into them. In this study, Holt-Winter model is used for predicting time series. The forecasting algorithm for Holt-Winters enables users to construct a time series and then use that data to forecast interest areas. Exponential smoothing allocates weights and their respective values against past data to decrease exponentially, to decrease the weight value for older data.

scholarly journals Examination of Temperature Variability over Lahore (Pakistan) and Dhaka (Bangladesh): A Comparative Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 46-50
Author(s):  
Khadija Shakrullah ◽  
Safdar Ali Shirazi ◽  
Sajjad Hussain Sajjad ◽  
Zartab Jahan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Average Model ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Mega Cities

Lahore and Dhaka are rapid expanding and over populated cities of South Asia located in Pakistan andBangladesh respectively. The present study focuses on the evaluation of temperature variability in comparison of bothcities. This study primarily aims at the assessment and examination of temperature variations in both mega cities ofSouth Asia which are seasonal as well as the annual. The time series data were analysed by using statistical techniquesAutoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Average Model (ARIMA). The resultsreveal that the minimum temperature is increasing much faster than that of the maximum temperature of both cities.However, the temperature rise(in maximum and minimum) has been observed highest during the spring seasons in bothcities.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Time-Series Predictions for Healthcare Emergency Department Indicators and the Impact of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3561
Author(s):  
Diego Duarte ◽  
Chris Walshaw ◽  
Nadarajah Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
General Regression Neural Network ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Hospital Patients ◽  
Major Incidents ◽  
General Regression ◽  
The Impact

Across the world, healthcare systems are under stress and this has been hugely exacerbated by the COVID pandemic. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), usually in the form of time-series data, are used to help manage that stress. Making reliable predictions of these indicators, particularly for emergency departments (ED), can facilitate acute unit planning, enhance quality of care and optimise resources. This motivates models that can forecast relevant KPIs and this paper addresses that need by comparing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, a purely statistical model, to Prophet, a decomposable forecasting model based on trend, seasonality and holidays variables, and to the General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), a machine learning model. The dataset analysed is formed of four hourly valued indicators from a UK hospital: Patients in Department; Number of Attendances; Unallocated Patients with a DTA (Decision to Admit); Medically Fit for Discharge. Typically, the data exhibit regular patterns and seasonal trends and can be impacted by external factors such as the weather or major incidents. The COVID pandemic is an extreme instance of the latter and the behaviour of sample data changed dramatically. The capacity to quickly adapt to these changes is crucial and is a factor that shows better results for GRNN in both accuracy and reliability.

scholarly journals Studying monthly rainfall over Dibrugarh, Assam: Use of SARIMA approach

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-356
Author(s):  
J. HAZARIKA ◽  
B. PATHAK ◽  
A. N. PATOWARY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Moving Average Model

Perceptive the rainfall pattern is tough for the solution of several regional environmental issues of water resources management, with implications for agriculture, climate change, and natural calamity such as floods and droughts. Statistical computing, modeling and forecasting data are key instruments for studying these patterns. The study of time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in different applications in hydrology and environmental fields. Among the most effective approaches for analyzing time series data is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model introduced by Box and Jenkins. In this study, an attempt has been made to use Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model for monthly rainfall data taken from Dibrugarh for the period of 1980- 2014 with a total of 420 points.  We investigated and found that ARIMA (0, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 model is suitable for the given data set. As such this model can be used to forecast the pattern of monthly rainfall for the upcoming years, which can help the decision makers to establish priorities in terms of agricultural, flood, water demand management etc.  

An Efficient Method for Forecasting Using Fuzzy Time Series

2017 ◽  
pp. 287-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pritpal Singh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Small Error ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Temperature Forecasting ◽  
The University

Forecasting using fuzzy time series has been applied in several areas including forecasting university enrollments, sales, road accidents, financial forecasting, weather forecasting, etc. Recently, many researchers have paid attention to apply fuzzy time series in time series forecasting problems. In this paper, we present a new model to forecast the enrollments in the University of Alabama and the daily average temperature in Taipei, based on one-factor fuzzy time series. In this model, a new frequency based clustering technique is employed for partitioning the time series data sets into different intervals. For defuzzification function, two new principles are also incorporated in this model. In case of enrollments as well daily temperature forecasting, proposed model exhibits very small error rate.

Modeling and forecasting multifractal wavelet scale: Western market versus eastern market

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 1850109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emrah Oral ◽  
Gazanfer Unal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Primary Study ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Time Frequency

This leading primary study is about modeling multifractal wavelet scale time series data using multiple wavelet coherence (MWC), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and forecasting with vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (VARFIMA) model. The data is acquired from Yahoo Finances!, which is composed of 1671 daily stock market of eastern (NIKKEI, TAIEX, KOPSI) and western (SP500, FTSE, DAX) markets. Once the co-movement dependencies on time-frequency space are determined with MWC, the coherent data is extracted out of raw data at a certain scale by using CWT. The multifractal behavior of the extracted series is verified by MFDFA and its local Hurst exponents have been calculated obtaining root mean square of residuals at each scale. This inter-calculated fluctuation function time series has been re-scaled and used to estimate the process with VARFIMA model and forecasted accordingly. The results have shown that the direction of price change is determined without difficulty and the efficiency of forecasting has been substantially increased using highly correlated multifractal wavelet scale time series data.

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