scholarly journals Simulating Land-Cover and Land-Use Change in the Savanna Under Present Day and Future Climate Scenarios-A GIS-Based Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mayowa J. Fasona ◽  
Alabi S. Soneye ◽  
Olatunde J. Ogunkunle ◽  
Olusegun A. Adeaga ◽  
Olutoyin A. Fashae ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

Response of hydrological processes to climate and land use changes in Hiso River watershed, Fukushima, Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilei Peng ◽  
Chunying Wang ◽  
Sadao Eguchi ◽  
Kanta Kuramochi ◽  
Masato Igura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Annual Water

<p>Hydrological processes at basin scale are driven by climate and land-use changes. Hiso River watershed (HRW) is within a radiocesium contaminated area caused by the disaster in Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP). It’s urgently needed to make evaluations on how changes of climate and land-use bring impacts on hydrological processes, which control pollutants transport in watershed. This study applied a combination method of Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to generate future climatic and hydrologic variables. Future climate data was obtained from three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios of a single General Circulation Models (GCMs) in three future periods of 2030s, 2060s and 2090s (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099), with a baseline period (1980-2009). Furthermore, according to land-use change in HRW during 2013-2017, three land-use change scenarios under the three future climate scenarios were established. Results suggested that SDSM showed good capabilities in capturing daily maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation. The SWAT model presented good performances in simulating monthly and yearly streamflow. Results also suggested projected higher temperatures and lower rainfall led to decreased annual water yield and evapotranspiration (ET). The annual water yield and ET decreased in most seasons while had a slight increase in spring. RCP8.5 scenario always generated larger magnitudes for climatic variables and water balance components compared with other climate scenarios. Land-use changes had strong impact on surface runoff and groundwater flow. These findings could provide reference for decontamination and revitalization policy-making under complicated land use and climate change conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Non-Point Source Loading under Future Climate Scenarios Using the SWAT Model

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 874
Author(s):  
Mao Feng ◽  
Zhenyao Shen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Point Source ◽  
Spatial Configuration ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Miyun Reservoir ◽  
Ecological Protection ◽  
Reduction Effect

The Miyun Reservoir is an important source of surface drinking water in Beijing. Due to climate change and human activities, the inflow of Miyun Reservoir watershed (MRW) has been continuously reduced in the past 30 years, which has seriously affected the safety of Beijing’s water supply. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the mitigation measures based on the quantification of the integrated impacts of climate and land use change in MRW. The non-point source (NPS) model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT) was used for the development of future climate scenarios which were derived from two regional climate models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Three land use scenarios were generated by the land use model (conversion of land-use and its effects (CLUE-S)): (1) historical trend scenario, (2) ecological protection without consideration of spatial configuration scenario and (3) ecological protection scenario. Moreover, the reduction of sediment and nutrients under three future land use patterns in future climate scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that an appropriate land use change project led to the desired reduction effect on sediment and nutrients output under future climate scenarios. The average reduction rates of sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were 11.4%, 6.3% and 7.4%, respectively. The ecological protection scenario considering spatial configuration showed the best reduction effect on sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus. Therefore, the addition of region-specific preference variables as part of land use change provides better pollutant control effects. Overall, this research provides technical support to protect the safety of Beijing’s drinking water and future management of non-point source pollution in MRW.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Future Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Impacts on Water Resources

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Nick Martin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Reference Conditions ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Lulc Change

Climate and land use and land cover (LULC) changes will impact watershed-scale water resources. These systemic alterations will have interacting influences on water availability. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework for water resource impact analysis from future systemic change is described and implemented to examine combined climate and LULC change impacts from 2011–2100 for a study site in west-central Texas. Internally, the PRA framework provides probabilistic simulation of reference and future conditions using weather generator and water balance models in series—one weather generator and water balance model for reference and one of each for future conditions. To quantify future conditions uncertainty, framework results are the magnitude of change in water availability, from the comparison of simulated reference and future conditions, and likelihoods for each change. Inherent advantages of the framework formulation for analyzing future risk are the explicit incorporation of reference conditions to avoid additional scenario-based analysis of reference conditions and climate change emissions scenarios. In the case study application, an increase in impervious area from economic development is the LULC change; it generates a 1.1 times increase in average water availability, relative to future climate trends, from increased runoff and decreased transpiration.

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