scholarly journals Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Trends of Trade Relations between Georgia and Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Simon Gelashvili
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Trade Partner ◽  
The Absolute

The article analyzes the long-term time series of 1995-2016 depicting trade relations between Georgia and Canada. Georgia's trade partner countries are ranked as a whole trade turnover, as well as export and import volume of goods and the ordinary position of Canada is established. The nature and direction of total trade turnover, as well as export and import tendencies are revealed. In the process of statistical analysis, the absolute and relative indicators were calculated. The export and import volume of 1995-2016 is also considered by the commodity groups and the first five of the largest commodity groups are drawn in both directions. The statistics show that the trade relations between Canada and Georgia and its development are important for both countries.

scholarly journals Maps, trends, and temperature sensitivities—phenological information from and for decreasing numbers of volunteer observers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Yuan ◽  
Stefan Härer ◽  
Tobias Ottenheym ◽  
Gourav Misra ◽  
Alissa Lüpke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Interpolation Accuracy ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Shiny App ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Autumn And Winter

AbstractPhenology serves as a major indicator of ongoing climate change. Long-term phenological observations are critically important for tracking and communicating these changes. The phenological observation network across Germany is operated by the National Meteorological Service with a major contribution from volunteering activities. However, the number of observers has strongly decreased for the last decades, possibly resulting in increasing uncertainties when extracting reliable phenological information from map interpolation. We studied uncertainties in interpolated maps from decreasing phenological records, by comparing long-term trends based on grid-based interpolated and station-wise observed time series, as well as their correlations with temperature. Interpolated maps in spring were characterized by the largest spatial variabilities across Bavaria, Germany, with respective lowest interpolated uncertainties. Long-term phenological trends for both interpolations and observations exhibited mean advances of −0.2 to −0.3 days year−1 for spring and summer, while late autumn and winter showed a delay of around 0.1 days year−1. Throughout the year, temperature sensitivities were consistently stronger for interpolated time series than observations. Such a better representation of regional phenology by interpolation was equally supported by satellite-derived phenological indices. Nevertheless, simulation of observer numbers indicated that a decline to less than 40% leads to a strong decrease in interpolation accuracy. To better understand the risk of declining phenological observations and to motivate volunteer observers, a Shiny app is proposed to visualize spatial and temporal phenological patterns across Bavaria and their links to climate change–induced temperature changes.

Mercury trends and cycling in northern Wisconsin related to atmospheric and hydrologic processes

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (5) ◽  
pp. 831-846 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.J. Watras ◽  
D. Grande ◽  
A.W. Latzka ◽  
L.S. Tate
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Littoral Sediments ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Acid Base Status ◽  
Explanatory Mechanism ◽  
Regional Water

Atmospheric deposition is the principal source of mercury (Hg) to remote northern landscapes, but its fate depends on multiple factors and internal feedbacks. Here we document long-term trends and cycles of Hg in the air, precipitation, surface water, and fish of northern Wisconsin that span the past three decades, and we investigate relationships to atmospheric processes and other variables, especially the regional water cycle. Consistent with declining emission inventories, there was evidence of declining trends in these time series, but the time series for Hg in some lakes and most fish were dominated by a near-decadal oscillation that tracked the regional oscillation of water levels. Concentrations of important solutes (SO4, dissolved organic carbon) and the acid–base status of lake water also tracked water levels in ways that cannot be attributed to simple dilution or concentration. The explanatory mechanism is analogous to the “reservoir effect” wherein littoral sediments are periodically exposed and reflooded, altering the internal cycles of sulfur, carbon, and mercury. These climatically driven, near-decadal oscillations confound short or sparse time series and complicate relationships among Hg emissions, deposition, and bioaccumulation.

Warming is Driving Decreases in Snow Fractions While Runoff Efficiency Remains Mostly Unchanged in Snow-Covered Areas of the Western United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 803-814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
David M. Wolock ◽  
Melissa Valentin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Monthly Water Balance ◽  
Surface Water Supply

Abstract Winter snowfall and accumulation is an important component of the surface water supply in the western United States. In these areas, increasing winter temperatures T associated with global warming can influence the amount of winter precipitation P that falls as snow S. In this study we examine long-term trends in the fraction of winter P that falls as S (Sfrac) for 175 hydrologic units (HUs) in snow-covered areas of the western United States for the period 1951–2014. Because S is a substantial contributor to runoff R across most of the western United States, we also examine long-term trends in water-year runoff efficiency [computed as water-year R/water-year P (Reff)] for the same 175 HUs. In that most S records are short in length, we use model-simulated S and R from a monthly water balance model. Results for Sfrac indicate long-term negative trends for most of the 175 HUs, with negative trends for 139 (~79%) of the HUs being statistically significant at a 95% confidence level (p = 0.05). Additionally, results indicate that the long-term negative trends in Sfrac have been largely driven by increases in T. In contrast, time series of Reff for the 175 HUs indicate a mix of positive and negative long-term trends, with few trends being statistically significant (at p = 0.05). Although there has been a notable shift in the timing of R to earlier in the year for most HUs, there have not been substantial decreases in water-year R for the 175 HUs.

Availability and Sales of Alcohol in Four Canadian Provinces: A Time-Series Analysis

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Björn Trolldal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Pure Alcohol ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Canadian Provinces ◽  
Physical Availability ◽  
Total Sales

The research question addressed in the present study, with ARIMA time-series analyses, was the extent to which changes in economic and physical availability had an effect on sales of alcohol in four Canadian provinces during the second half of the 20th century. The annual sales, by type of beverage (spirits, wine and beer) as well as total sales, measured in pure alcohol per inhabitant age 15 and above in each province, were used as dependent variables in the analyses. The inhabitants' real disposable income, the real price of alcohol, and the number of on- and off-premise outlets per 100,000 inhabitants were used as independent variables. All the time-series were differenced to remove long-term trends. The main study period was 1951–2000. In some of the analyses the study periods were shorter, primarily due to lack of data. Changes in economic availability in general, and in price in particular, had larger effects on sales than physical availability. Among the beverages analyzed in the study, the demand for spirits was most sensitive to changes in availability. Economic availability had a greater effect on sales than the number of outlets. However, one might question to what extent the number of outlets really is a feasible measure of transaction costs associated with purchases of alcohol.

APPLYING THE METHOD OF SMALL–SHUFFLE SURROGATE DATA: TESTING FOR DYNAMICS IN FLUCTUATING DATA WITH TRENDS

2006 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 3581-3603 ◽  
Author(s):  
TOMOMICHI NAKAMURA ◽  
MICHAEL SMALL
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Surrogate Data ◽  
Actual Time ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Surrogate Method

Recently, a new surrogate method, the Small–Shuffle (SS) surrogate method, has been proposed to investigate whether there is some kind of dynamics in irregular fluctuations, even if they are modulated by long term trends or periodicities. This situation is theoretically incompatible with the assumption underlying previously proposed surrogate methods. We apply the SS surrogate method to a variety of simulated data with known dynamics and actual time series with unknown dynamics.

Identifying cardinal dates in phytoplankton time series to enable the analysis of long-term trends

Oecologia ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 153 (4) ◽  
pp. 997-1008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Heidemarie Horn ◽  
Thomas Petzoldt ◽  
Lothar Paul
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Long Term Trends

scholarly journals LONG-TERM TRENDS OF THE MAIN BLOOD LIPID PARAMETERS IN SIBERIAN POPULATION

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
Yu. P. Nikitin ◽  
S. K. Malyutina ◽  
K. V. Makarenkova
Keyword(s):  
Lipid Profile ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Blood Lipid ◽  
Siberian Population ◽  
Blood Lipid Profile ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
Lipid Parameters ◽  
Representative Samples

Aim. To carry out the population analysis of blood lipid profile trends during the period from 1985 to 2005 in Novosibirsk population.Material and methods. The study was carried out based on the databases of two large international epidemiological projects done in Novosibirsk, WHO “MONIСA” and “HAPIEЕ”. The representative samples from nonorganized population of Novosibirsk were tested in compliance with protocol of the projects. The analysis included data of 10272 people aged from 45 to 64 years; among them 4783 were men and 5489 — women.Results. Blood TC, non-HDL–C and LDL–С levels from the citizens of Novosibirsk aged 45–64 were significantly lower in the year 1995: 5,50±0,03 mM/l, 4,07±0,03 and 3,48±0,03 mM/l, respectively. By 2005 these values increased significantly and became higher than those initial in 1985. For women 20-year changes in TC, non-HDL–C and LDL–С levels are more prominent than for men. Trends of blood triglyceride levels are analogous to the changes of the indexes described above: average levels were the lowest in 1995 and the highest — in 2005. During a twenty years period the gradual statistically significant increase of blood HDL–C concentrations was noted: in 1985 its concentration was 1,29±0,01 mM/l, in 1995–1,42±0,01 mM/l (p<0,001), in 2005–1,53±0,004 mM/l (p<0,001). HDL–C level for the first decade (1985–1995) increased at average by 10% for the all tenyear period, and for the twenty-year period — by 18,6%, at that for men the increase was more significant (20,2%) than for women (16,4%). By 1995 the absolute values of atherogenicity coefficient decreased significantly; for women in a greater degree. By 2005 the correlation of pro-atherogenic factor to atherogenic one has slightly increased however stayed lower in relation to 1985.Conclusion. In the year 1995 in Siberian population blood TC, non-HDL–C, LDL–С and TG levels appeared to be lower than in 1985 and 2005. Blood HDL–C content was increasing with each decade. Atherogenicity coefficient decreased during the first decade (by 1995), and during the subsequent years slightly increased for women, but did not change significantly for men.

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