Application of Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis in Japan

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Makoto TAKAO ◽  
Jiro TSUCHIYAMA ◽  
Tadashi ANNAKA ◽  
Tetsushi KURITA
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Fault Displacement

scholarly journals Probabilistic Assessment of Innovative Mitigating Measures for Buried Steel Pipeline–Fault Crossing

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasileios E. Melissianos ◽  
Dimitrios Vamvatsikos ◽  
Charis J. Gantes
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Structural Response ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Effectiveness Evaluation ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Flexible Joints ◽  
Intensity Measure ◽  
Seismological Data ◽  
Fault Displacement ◽  
Probabilistic Nature

A methodology is presented on assessing the effectiveness of flexible joints in mitigating the consequences of faulting on buried steel pipelines through a comprehensive analysis that incorporates the uncertainty of fault displacement magnitude and the response of the pipeline itself. The proposed methodology is a two-step process. In the first step the probabilistic nature of the fault displacement magnitude is evaluated by applying the Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis, considering also all pertinent uncertainties. The second step is the “transition” from seismological data to the pipeline structural response through the fault displacement components as the adopted vector intensity measure. To mitigate the consequences of faulting on pipelines, flexible joints between pipeline parts are proposed as innovative measure for reducing the deformation of pipeline walls. Thus, the mechanical behavior of continuous pipelines and pipelines with flexible joints is numerically assessed and strains are extracted in order to develop the corresponding strain hazard curves. The latter are a useful engineering tool for pipeline – fault crossing risk assessment and for the effectiveness evaluation of flexible joints as innovative mitigating measures against the consequences of faulting on pipelines.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis for North Tabriz Fault

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamadreza Hosseyni ◽  
Habib Rahimi
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Surface Displacement ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Surface Rupture ◽  
Slip Mechanism ◽  
The North ◽  
North Tabriz Fault ◽  
Fault Displacement

Abstract. The probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is one of the new methods in estimating the amount of possible displacement in the area at the hazard of causal fault rupture. In this study, using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method introduced by Youngs et al., 2003, the surface displacement of the North Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated. By considering the strike-slip mechanism of the North Tabriz fault and using the earthquake method, the probability of displacement due to surface ruptures caused by 1721 and 1780 North Tabriz fault earthquakes has been explored. These events were associated with 50 and 60 km of surface rupture, respectively. The 50–60 km long section of the North Tabriz fault was selected as the source of possible surface rupture. We considered two scenarios according to possible displacements, return periods, and magnitudes which are reported in paleoseismic studies of the North Tabriz fault. As the first scenario, possible displacement, return period, and magnitude was selected between zero to 4.5; 645 years and Mw~7.7, respectively. In the second scenario, possible displacement, return period and magnitude were selected between zero to 7.1, 300 years, and Mw~7.3, respectively. For both mentioned scenarios, the probabilistic displacements for the rate of exceedance 5 % in 50, 475, and 2475 years for the principle possible displacements (on fault) of the North Tabriz fault have been estimated. For the first and second scenarios, the maximum probabilistic displacement of the North Tabriz fault at a rate of 5 % in 50 years is estimated to be 186 and 230 cm. Also, mentioned displacements for 5 % exceedance in 475 years and 2475 years in both return periods of 645 and 300 years, are estimated at 469 and 655 cm.

scholarly journals Potential Fault Displacement Hazard Assessment Using Stochastic Source Models: A Retrospective Evaluation for the 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake

GeoHazards ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 398-414
Author(s):  
Katsuichiro Goda
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Fault Rupture ◽  
Displacement Vectors ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Consistent Manner ◽  
Source Models ◽  
Fault Trace ◽  
Fault Displacement

Surface fault displacement due to an earthquake affects buildings and infrastructure in the near-fault area significantly. Although approaches for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis have been developed and applied in practice, there are several limitations that prevent fault displacement hazard assessments for multiple locations simultaneously in a physically consistent manner. This study proposes an alternative approach that is based on stochastic source modelling and fault displacement analysis using Okada equations. The proposed method evaluates the fault displacement hazard potential due to a fault rupture. The developed method is applied to the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake from a retrospective perspective. The stochastic-source-based fault displacement hazard analysis method successfully identifies multiple source models that predict fault displacements in close agreement with observed GPS displacement vectors and displacement offsets along the fault trace. The case study for the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake demonstrates that the proposed stochastic-source-based method is a viable option in conducting probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis.

A Methodology for Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (PFDHA)

2003 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 191-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert R. Youngs ◽  
Walter J. Arabasz ◽  
R. Ernest Anderson ◽  
Alan R. Ramelli ◽  
Jon P. Ake ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Normal Faulting ◽  
General Application ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Attenuation Function ◽  
Ground Motion Attenuation ◽  
A Site ◽  
Fault Displacement

We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis for Reverse Faults

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (4) ◽  
pp. 1542-1553 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. E. S. Moss ◽  
Z. E. Ross
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Fault Displacement
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document