scholarly journals Using Multi-Criteria Optimization in Decision Support under Risk

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Łodziński
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Previous Method ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Decision Making Under Risk ◽  
Evaluation Functions ◽  
Interactive Decision Making ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Decision Support Method

The chapter presents an extension of a previous method for decision support under risk. The decision-making process is modeled by a multi-criteria optimization problem, in which the individual evaluation functions represent the results of decisions in several possible scenarios with associated risks. The decision support method is an interactive decision-making process. The choice is made by solving the problem depending on the control parameters that define the aspirations of the decision maker as well as on an evaluation of the obtained solutions. The decision maker selects a set of parameters representing various risks’ impacts that influences a solution, and then he/she evaluates the obtained solution by accepting or rejecting it. In another case, the decision maker selects a new value and the problem is solved again for the new parameter. In this chapter, an example of supporting decision-making under risk is presented.

scholarly journals Support of decision-making under risk by a risk-averse decision-maker

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Łodziński
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
The State ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Discrete Problem ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Control Parameters ◽  
Decision Making Under Risk ◽  
State Of The Environment

The paper presents the decision support under risk by the risk averse decision maker. Decision making under risk occurs when the result of the decision is not unequivocal and depends on the state of the environment. The decision making process is modeled with the use of multi-criteria optimization. The decision is made by solving the problem with the control parameters that determine the decision maker's aspirations and the evaluation of the solutions received. The decision maker asks the parameter for which the solution is determined. Then, evaluate the solution received accepting or rejecting it. In the second case, the decision maker gives a new parameter value and the problem is solved again for the new parameter. The work includes an simple discrete problem of decision support under risk

scholarly journals How to Discourage Adversaries From Affecting Decision Outcomes of a Repeated Patent Application Decision--Making Process

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willem van der Sluis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Patent Application ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Sequential Decision ◽  
Decision Support Model ◽  
Application Process ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Application Decision

Outcomes of repeated decision--making processes may be affected by adversarial actors, without being noticed. Adversaries may try to gain knowledge about a particular decision--making process, identify its decision--makers, and guess which underlying decision support model is used. Then they can simulate the process, and craft different scenarios to affect its decision outcomes. Therefore, designers of decision support systems need to incorporate this in the decision modeling phase. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate this for the repeated decision--making in a patent application process. In this process, two sequential decision outcomes can be affected by adversarial actors: a company's decision to which type of patent office to send a patent request to, and the decision of a specialized patent officer to grant an application, or not. It is motivated that the company's decision--maker is \emph{bounded} rational. A theory for information--theoretic bounded rational decision--making under uncertainty proposed by Ortega et al.\ is adopted to model this type of decision--maker. A framework is provided to simulate a number of scenarios that adversaries may deploy to affect decision outcomes of a repeated patent application decision--making process. The framework is also utilized for statistically testing the presence of the scenarios, and to demonstrate how to discourage adversaries from deploying them.

scholarly journals GIS BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR SEISMIC RISK IN BUCHAREST. CASE STUDY – THE HISTORICAL CENTRE

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
GHEORGHE DIANA ◽  
ARMAS IULIANA
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Spatial Decision Support ◽  
Historical Centre

Because of the increasing volume of information, problem decisions tend to be more difficult to deal with. Achieving an objective and making a suitable decision may become a real challenge. In order to better deal with decision making, decision support systems (DSS) have been developed. The decision support systems (DSS) can be used in any kind of a decision-making process and are very suitable in situations that involve a lot of stakeholders and a large number of criteria. DSS offers support in the decision-making process (<em>how</em> a decision should be made), and it does not focus on the result (<em>what</em> decision that should be made). DSS can also involve a large number of stakeholders and criteria, in the same time. A limitation of this method is that, regardless of the mathematical results, the final decision has to be made by the decision maker. Depending on the nature of the decision problem, a decision maker can use decision support systems (DSS), if the decision problem is economic or technical, and spatial decision support systems (SDSS), if the decision maker is faced with a spatial decision problem. The main objective of the present study is to apply a spatial decision support system in order to find a suitable shelter in the historical centre of Bucharest City in the post-disaster phase, in case of an earthquake occurrence. The present work represents a first step in applying SDSS in the context of the seismic risk in Bucharest. For the present paper, the SMCE Module for ILWIS 3.4 was used. The method included the following steps: structuring the problem in a decision tree, applying standardization and weighting methods to the criteria, finding suitable alternatives and choosing one of the alternatives. The results show that several buildings can be used as a shelter and among these are ‘Creditul Roman’ Bank Palace, the National History Museum and the National Bank of Romania.

scholarly journals A Decision Support Method for Choosing an Agricultural Machinery Service Workshop Based on Fuzzy Logic

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Osuch ◽  
Ewa Osuch ◽  
Piotr Rybacki ◽  
Przemysław Przygodziński ◽  
Radosław Kozłowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Agricultural Machinery ◽  
Decision Criteria ◽  
Service Facility ◽  
Decision Support Method

The quality of technical services is one of the main criteria for assessing the service processes of agricultural machinery, and it has a significant impact on the decision-making process when choosing a service provider. Technical service quality has a significant role in maintaining agricultural machinery in optimal technical condition, thus ensuring its high reliability and durability. The purpose of this study is to present a decision support method for choosing the right agricultural machinery service facility. The method is based on fuzzy inference. The choice of service workshop is based on decision criteria individually accepted by farmers (experts). The method was checked by way of research carried out among 25 farmers facing the choice of a service facility. The decision-making process allows for ranking the decision criteria and decision-makers. The results of the presented research can be used by farm owners and service companies to plan their development directions.

scholarly journals GIS BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR SEISMIC RISK IN BUCHAREST. CASE STUDY – THE HISTORICAL CENTRE

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
DIANA GHEORGHE ◽  
IULIANA ARMAS
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Spatial Decision Support ◽  
Historical Centre

Because of the increasing volume of information, problem decisions tend to be more difficult to deal with. Achieving an objective and making a suitable decision may become a real challenge. In order to better deal with decision making, decision support systems (DSS) have been developed. The decision support systems (DSS) can be used in any kind of a decision-making process and are very suitable in situations that involve a lot of stakeholders and a large number of criteria. DSS offers support in the decision-making process (how a decision should be made), and it does not focus on the result (what decision that should be made). DSS can also involve a large number of stakeholders and criteria, in the same time. A limitation of this method is that, regardless of the mathematical results, the final decision has to be made by the decision maker. Depending on the nature of the decision problem, a decision maker can use decision support systems (DSS), if the decision problem is economic or technical, and spatial decision support systems (SDSS), if the decision maker is faced with a spatial decision problem. The main objective of the present study is to apply a spatial decision support system in order to find a suitable shelter in the historical centre of Bucharest City in the post-disaster phase, in case of an earthquake occurrence. The present work represents a first step in applying SDSS in the context of the seismic risk in Bucharest. For the present paper, the SMCE Module for ILWIS 3.4 was used. The method included the following steps: structuring the problem in a decision tree, applying standardization and weighting methods to the criteria, finding suitable alternatives and choosing one of the alternatives. The results show that several buildings can be used as a shelter and among these are ‘Creditul Roman’ Bank Palace, the National History Museum and the National Bank of Romania.

The transformation of the decision-making process on the part of economic agents influenced by social constraints

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1202-1222
Author(s):  
M.V. Grechko ◽  
L.A. Kobina ◽  
S.A. Goncharenko
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Consumer Choice ◽  
Social Constraints ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Economic Knowledge ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Contextual Environment ◽  
Economic Constraints ◽  
External Signals

Subject. The article focuses on the decision-making mechanism used by economic agents given the existing social constraints. Objectives. We devise applied toolkit to study how socio-economic constraints transform the decision-making mechanism used by economic agents. Methods. The study involves means of the expert survey, the method that streamlines economic knowledge. Results. Social constraints are illustrated to influence the decision-making mechanism used by economic agents, assuming that the individual mind relies on specific mechanisms to make judgments and decisions. Generally, the mechanisms are very useful, however they may generate serious errors during the decision-making process. Given the social constraints, economic agents were found to follow four mental models to make their decisions in case of the full or partial uncertainty, i.e. the representative relevance, accessibility, relations, heuristics (modeling). Conclusions and Relevance. The scientific ideas herein show that the inner architecture of a choice an individual makes determines his or her decisions. The decisions often depend on the contextual environment that gives external signals perceived by the individual while evaluating alternative ways. The findings can possibly be used as a mechanism to manage the consumer choice.

Models of decision support in socio-cyber-physical systems

2019 ◽  
pp. 55-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. V. Smirnov ◽  
T. V. Levashova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Situation Awareness ◽  
Cyber Physical Systems ◽  
Emergent Behavior ◽  
Emergent Properties ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Physical Systems ◽  
Decision Support Models ◽  
Common Goals

Introduction: Socio-cyber-physical systems are complex non-linear systems. Such systems display emergent properties. Involvement of humans, as a part of these systems, in the decision-making process contributes to overcoming the consequences of the emergent system behavior, since people can use their experience and intuition, not just the programmed rules and procedures.Purpose: Development of models for decision support in socio-cyber-physical systems.Results: A scheme of decision making in socio-cyber-physical systems, a conceptual framework of decision support in these systems, and stepwise decision support models have been developed. The decision-making scheme is that cybernetic components make their decisions first, and if they cannot do this, they ask humans for help. The stepwise models support the decisions made by components of socio-cyber-physical systems at the conventional stages of the decision-making process: situation awareness, problem identification, development of alternatives, choice of a preferred alternative, and decision implementation. The application of the developed models is illustrated through a scenario for planning the execution of a common task for robots.Practical relevance: The developed models enable you to design plans on solving tasks common for system components or on achievement of common goals, and to implement these plans. The models contribute to overcoming the consequences of the emergent behavior of socio-cyber-physical systems, and to the research on machine learning and mobile robot control.

Multivariable Automatisierungsentscheidungen*/Multivariate automation decisions – A tool for cost-benefit assessments as a basis for decision-making

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (03) ◽  
pp. 134-139
Author(s):  
P. Burggräf ◽  
J. Wagner ◽  
M. Dannapfel ◽  
K. Müller ◽  
B. Koke
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Cost And Benefit ◽  
Benefit Evaluation ◽  
Level Of Automation

Der wachsende Bedarf an Wandlungsfähigkeit führt zu einer höheren Frequenz in der Umplanung von Montagesystemen und erfordert eine kontinuierliche Überprüfung und Anpassung des Automatisierungsgrades. Um auch die komplexen Umgebungsbedingungen abzubilden, sollen nicht-monetäre Faktoren in den Entscheidungsprozess eingebunden werden. Um die Entscheidung zu unterstützen, stellt dieser Beitrag ein Tool zur Identifizierung und Bewertung von Automatisierungsszenarien mittels einer Nutzwert-Aufwand-Analyse vor. &nbsp; The increasing need for adaptability in assembly leads to a higher planning frequency of the system and requires continuous checks and adaptations of the appropriate level of automation. To account for the complex environmental conditions, non-monetary factors are included in the decision-making process. This paper presents a decision support tool to identify and evaluate automation scenarios by means of cost and benefit evaluation.

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