Growing Regional Variation: Demographic Change and its Implications

Author(s):  
TIM DYSON

This chapter discusses some of the principal factors that have conditioned changes in the demography of India. The demographic trends at the regional and national level are examined, followed by a discussion of the likely consequences of current population trends. The last section of the chapter includes comments on recent work that has attempted to explain demographic change. Population growth, mortality, and fertility are some topics covered in this chapter.

Subject Global demographic trends. Significance Unprecedented demographic change confronts the global economy. By 2050, populations will grow the fastest in Africa and India while Japan's will fall by 15%, Russia's by 14% and Germany's by 12%. Impacts With no immigration, Germany's population will fall by 30 million by 2050 rather than the projected 10 million. High growth is probable in India and parts of Africa, where population growth is stronger. Governments facing demographic decline will need to reform their labour markets and health systems, while encouraging immigration.


2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-54
Author(s):  
Dowell Myers

California needs a new guiding narrative for shared understanding and for directing public decisions about threats and opportunities in the state. Misleading and counterproductive guidance is provided by narratives that are no longer supported by recent trends. Ongoing changes related to two specific guiding narratives are described. In the first, support for Proposition 13 was founded on explosive increases of house prices in the 1970s, along with assumptions of continued migration of newcomers willing to pay higher prices and the higher taxes needed to offset discounts for oldtimers. A second narrative of demographic change reacts negatively to rapid population growth, soaring immigration and racial change. Remarkably, virtually all the premises in these two narratives have been overturned by events. Instead, a different set of urgent problems and opportunities have emerged that require a new guiding vision. In place of exploding house prices, tax assessments have collapsed and we struggle to revive the housing market. Young buyers are asked to pay the highest taxes, but today it is the young not the old who are vulnerable and threatened. While before it was a struggle to keep up with migration from outside California, immigration has declined and today the growth is homegrown. Meanwhile, the aging baby boomers are about to create a crisis of replacement workers, taxpayers and home buyers. Cultivating the new homegrown generation is our paramount need. Today the story of California is completely reversed, yet adherence to the old narratives blocks recognition of the path to a brighter future.


2016 ◽  
pp. 507-515
Author(s):  
Nino Delic

Summary data in statistical examination about births and deaths in the district of Smederevo in the period from 1846-1866, collected by the Serbian Orthodox Church and submitted to government institutions, revealed a typical model of late pre-transition phase, or a very early demographic transition. Calculated birth and death rates are very high, with repeated significant oscillations. The ?Malthusian scissors? seem to appear between 1854 and 1859, and after 1862. The overall population growth of nearby 50% between 1846 and 1866 seems to be mostly the result of natural growth. Still, comparing the total number of births and deaths with the overall population growth, an estimated 9% of the district?s total population in 1866 appears not to be originally born there.


2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (8) ◽  
pp. 975-985 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Sherman-Morris ◽  
Jason Senkbeil ◽  
Robert Carver

Two freely available, searchable databases that track the normalized interest in specific search queries, Google Trends and Google Insights, were used to illustrate spatial and temporal patterns in hurricane information seeking. Searches for the word “hurricane” showed a seasonal pattern with spikes in hurricane searches that corresponded to the severity of the storms making landfall. Regional variation in “hurricane” searches was largely driven by the location and magnitude of hurricane landfalls. Catastrophic hurricanes such as Hurricane Katrina captured national attention. A great deal of regional variation in search volume existed prior to Hurricane Ike's landfall. Not as much variation was seen before Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. This variation appeared to be related to changes in the 5-day track forecast as well as other factors such as issuance of watches and warnings. Searches from Louisiana experienced a sharp decrease after the 5-day track forecast shifted away from the state, but before Ike made landfall. Normalized daily visits to Weather Underground during August/September 2008 followed the same pattern as the Google searches. The most popular hurricane-related search terms at the national level prior to landfall dealt with forecast track and evacuation information while searches after landfall included terms related to hurricane damage. There are limitations to using this free data source, but the study has implications for the literature as well as practical applications. This study provides new information about online search behavior before a hurricane that can be utilized by those who provide weather information to the public.


Author(s):  
Tirthankar Roy

India’s population, long-stagnant or growing only at a slow pace, began to grow rapidly from the 1920s. Given the large initial size of the population, demographic change in this region was a turning point in world population history. What had changed to produce this turn? Chapter 10 considers the demographic transition with attention paid to population growth, famines, epidemics, and migration.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 4-17
Author(s):  
Helga A. Welsh

German unification prompted expectations of harmonization in political culture and promises of equivalent living conditions across the federation. Almost three decades later, the revival of narratives based on East-West differences has raised concerns whether inner unity, a term coined to describe political and material convergence across the former East-West divide, has stagnated or fallen behind. Frustration with the process of unification based on East-West contrasts, however, tends to downplay achievements and, importantly, regional diversity across the federation. I advocate a shift in perspective to the subnational (Land and communal) levels and illustrate regional variation with examples that address equivalent living conditions and demographic change. North-South differences coexist with East-West and within-region differences, suggesting not two but four or five Germanies. The eastern regions still occupy a special place in the unified Germany; they contribute to agenda setting and policy making with important implications across the federation.


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