scholarly journals Peer Review #3 of "Forecasting influenza epidemics by integrating internet search queries and traditional surveillance data with the support vector machine regression model in Liaoning, from 2011 to 2015 (v0.2)"

Author(s):  
S Yang
PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Liang ◽  
Peng Guan ◽  
Wei Wu ◽  
Desheng Huang

Background Influenza epidemics pose significant social and economic challenges in China. Internet search query data have been identified as a valuable source for the detection of emerging influenza epidemics. However, the selection of the search queries and the adoption of prediction methods are crucial challenges when it comes to improving predictions. The purpose of this study was to explore the application of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression model in merging search engine query data and traditional influenza data. Methods The official monthly reported number of influenza cases in Liaoning province in China was acquired from the China National Scientific Data Center for Public Health from January 2011 to December 2015. Based on Baidu Index, a publicly available search engine database, search queries potentially related to influenza over the corresponding period were identified. An SVM regression model was built to be used for predictions, and the choice of three parameters (C, γ, ε) in the SVM regression model was determined by leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) during the model construction process. The model’s performance was evaluated by the evaluation metrics including Root Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Percentage Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Results In total, 17 search queries related to influenza were generated through the initial query selection approach and were adopted to construct the SVM regression model, including nine queries in the same month, three queries at a lag of one month, one query at a lag of two months and four queries at a lag of three months. The SVM model performed well when with the parameters (C = 2, γ = 0.005, ɛ = 0.0001), based on the ensemble data integrating the influenza surveillance data and Baidu search query data. Conclusions The results demonstrated the feasibility of using internet search engine query data as the complementary data source for influenza surveillance and the efficiency of SVM regression model in tracking the influenza epidemics in Liaoning.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Wangsong Xie ◽  
Noura Metawa

 The financial stock market is highly complex, nonlinear and uncertain, which makes it difficult to predict price fluctuation. With the advent of the era of artificial intelligence, a variety of intelligent optimization algorithms are constantly applied to the prediction of the stock market. The purpose of this study is to use a support vector machine regression model optimized by an intelligent fuzzy algorithm to predict the situation of the securities market. In this study, the stock price information of sh600060hisense electric equipment from June 2019 to December 2019 was used as the experimental data. As the input parameters of regression models, the starting price, the maximum price, the lowest price, the stock price, the transaction quantity, and the transaction quantity are taken up, and the fuzzy logic is used to make the sample data fuzzy, and the kernel function and optimization parameter are chosen. Then, the obtained data are trained in MATLAB, and the obtained data are effectively classified, and the stock price prediction of the financial market is obtained. The results show that the optimal parameters of the support vector machine regression model of stock data are C = 100, y = 0.01, ɛ= 0.01, and the accuracy of FSVM is about 0.75, which is higher than that of the SVM model (0.71), the square root mean square error (RMSE) is about 0.12, and the average absolute error (MAE) is about 0.015, According to the data, it can be said that the prediction results of the model are effective for the selected seven stocks one-minute data. It is concluded that the fuzzy support vector machine improves the prediction accuracy of the stock market. This study contributes to the prediction of an intelligent algorithm in the stock market.


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