scholarly journals Forecasting influenza epidemics by integrating internet search queries and traditional surveillance data with the support vector machine regression model in Liaoning, from 2011 to 2015

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Liang ◽  
Peng Guan ◽  
Wei Wu ◽  
Desheng Huang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Search Engine ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Internet Search ◽  
Search Query ◽  
Search Queries

Background Influenza epidemics pose significant social and economic challenges in China. Internet search query data have been identified as a valuable source for the detection of emerging influenza epidemics. However, the selection of the search queries and the adoption of prediction methods are crucial challenges when it comes to improving predictions. The purpose of this study was to explore the application of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression model in merging search engine query data and traditional influenza data. Methods The official monthly reported number of influenza cases in Liaoning province in China was acquired from the China National Scientific Data Center for Public Health from January 2011 to December 2015. Based on Baidu Index, a publicly available search engine database, search queries potentially related to influenza over the corresponding period were identified. An SVM regression model was built to be used for predictions, and the choice of three parameters (C, γ, ε) in the SVM regression model was determined by leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) during the model construction process. The model’s performance was evaluated by the evaluation metrics including Root Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Percentage Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Results In total, 17 search queries related to influenza were generated through the initial query selection approach and were adopted to construct the SVM regression model, including nine queries in the same month, three queries at a lag of one month, one query at a lag of two months and four queries at a lag of three months. The SVM model performed well when with the parameters (C = 2, γ = 0.005, ɛ = 0.0001), based on the ensemble data integrating the influenza surveillance data and Baidu search query data. Conclusions The results demonstrated the feasibility of using internet search engine query data as the complementary data source for influenza surveillance and the efficiency of SVM regression model in tracking the influenza epidemics in Liaoning.

scholarly journals Electrical Load Forecasting using SVM Algorithm

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 4811-4816
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Live Load ◽  
Electric Load ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Electrical Load ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Svm Algorithm

Electrical load demand is variable in nature. Also, with the increase in technological development and automation, electric load demand tends to rise with time. For this, our generation facilities should be adequate 24x7 to meet the consumer’s load demand effectively. Therefore, load demand needs to be predicted or forecasted to avoid the energy crisis. In this paper, support vector machine (SVM) algorithm is explored for electric load forecasting. The live load data for the period of three months i.e., January to March, 2015, from a typical 66kV sub-station of the Punjab State Power Corporation Limited (PSPCL) for a selected site at Bhai Roopa sub-station, Bathinda, situated in the Punjab state of India, is acquired for the presented simulation study. The collected live data is divided into three categories, i.e., validation, training, and testing for the simulation study considering a SVM approach. Then, based on the environmental data input for the next 50 hours, the electric load is predicted. The obtained results from simulation were validated with the live load data of the selected site and found to be within the permissible limits. The mean square error (MSE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), absolute percentage error (APE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and sum of squares error (SSE) were calculated to show the effectiveness of the proposed support vector machine (SVM) algorithm based STLF. SVM is one of the effective machine learning algorithms. The errors so obtained clearly suggest that the proposed SVM algorithm gives reasonably accurate results, and is reliable for electric load forecasting.

scholarly journals Predicting Ink Transfer Rate of 3D Additive Printing Using EGBO Optimized Least Squares Support Vector Machine Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Shengpu Li ◽  
Yize Sun
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Transfer Rate ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Experimental Sample ◽  
Machine Model ◽  
Ink Transfer

Ink transfer rate (ITR) is a reference index to measure the quality of 3D additive printing. In this study, an ink transfer rate prediction model is proposed by applying the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). In addition, enhanced garden balsam optimization (EGBO) is used for selection and optimization of hyperparameters that are embedded in the LSSVM model. 102 sets of experimental sample data have been collected from the production line to train and test the hybrid prediction model. Experimental results show that the coefficient of determination (R2) for the introduced model is equal to 0.8476, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 6.6 × 10 (−3), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 1.6502 × 10 (−3) for the ink transfer rate of 3D additive printing.

scholarly journals Multi-State Load Demand Forecasting Using Hybridized Support Vector Regression Integrated with Optimal Design of Off-Grid Energy Systems—A Metaheuristic Approach

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 1166
Author(s):  
Bashir Musa ◽  
Nasser Yimen ◽  
Sani Isah Abba ◽  
Humphrey Hugh Adun ◽  
Mustafa Dagbasi
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Hybrid Renewable Energy System

The prediction accuracy of support vector regression (SVR) is highly influenced by a kernel function. However, its performance suffers on large datasets, and this could be attributed to the computational limitations of kernel learning. To tackle this problem, this paper combines SVR with the emerging Harris hawks optimization (HHO) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms to form two hybrid SVR algorithms, SVR-HHO and SVR-PSO. Both the two proposed algorithms and traditional SVR were applied to load forecasting in four different states of Nigeria. The correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R2), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used as indicators to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the algorithms. The results reveal that there is an increase in performance for both SVR-HHO and SVR-PSO over traditional SVR. SVR-HHO has the highest R2 values of 0.9951, 0.8963, 0.9951, and 0.9313, the lowest MSE values of 0.0002, 0.0070, 0.0002, and 0.0080, and the lowest MAPE values of 0.1311, 0.1452, 0.0599, and 0.1817, respectively, for Kano, Abuja, Niger, and Lagos State. The results of SVR-HHO also prove more advantageous over SVR-PSO in all the states concerning load forecasting skills. This paper also designed a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) that consists of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, wind turbines, and batteries. As inputs, the system used solar radiation, temperature, wind speed, and the predicted load demands by SVR-HHO in all the states. The system was optimized by using the PSO algorithm to obtain the optimal configuration of the HRES that will satisfy all constraints at the minimum cost.

Forecasting daily attraction demand using big data from search engines and social media

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengjun Tian ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Zhenxing Mao ◽  
Wenyue Tang
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Search Engine ◽  
Elastic Net ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Social Media Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Media Data

Purpose This paper aims to compare the forecasting performance of different models with and without big data predictors from search engines and social media. Design/methodology/approach Using daily tourist arrival data to Mount Longhu, China in 2018 and 2019, the authors estimated ARMA, ARMAX, Markov-switching auto-regression (MSAR), lasso model, elastic net model and post-lasso and post-elastic net models to conduct one- to seven-days-ahead forecasting. Search engine data and social media data from WeChat, Douyin and Weibo were incorporated to improve forecasting accuracy. Findings Results show that search engine data can substantially reduce forecasting error, whereas social media data has very limited value. Compared to the ARMAX/MSAR model without big data predictors, the corresponding post-lasso model reduced forecasting error by 39.29% based on mean square percentage error, 33.95% based on root mean square percentage error, 46.96% based on root mean squared error and 45.67% based on mean absolute scaled error. Practical implications Results highlight the importance of incorporating big data predictors into daily demand forecasting for tourism attractions. Originality/value This study represents a pioneering attempt to apply the regularized regression (e.g. lasso model and elastic net) in tourism forecasting and to explore various daily big data indicators across platforms as predictors.

scholarly journals Support Vector Machine for Regional Ionospheric Delay Modeling

Sensors ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (13) ◽  
pp. 2947 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengxie Zhang ◽  
Shuguo Pan ◽  
Chengfa Gao ◽  
Tao Zhao ◽  
Wang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Dimensional Space ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Single Frequency ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Ionosphere Modeling ◽  
Mean Square Errors

The distribution of total electron content (TEC) in the ionosphere is irregular and complex, and it is hard to model accurately. The polynomial (POLY) model is used extensively for regional ionosphere modeling in two-dimensional space. However, in the active period of the ionosphere, the POLY model is difficult to reflect the distribution and variation of TEC. Aiming at the limitation of the regional POLY model, this paper proposes a new ionosphere modeling method with combining the support vector machine (SVM) regression model and the POLY model. Firstly, the POLY model is established using observations of regional continuously operating reference stations (CORS). Then the SVM regression model is trained to compensate the model error of POLY, and the TEC SVM-P model is obtained by the combination of the POLY and the SVM. The fitting accuracies of the models are verified with the root mean square errors (RMSEs) and static single-frequency precise point positioning (PPP) experiments. The results show that the RMSE of the SVM-P is 0.980 TECU (TEC unit), which produces an improvement of 17.3% compared with the POLY model (1.185 TECU). Using SVM-P models, the positioning accuracies of single-frequency PPP are improved over 40% compared with those using POLY models. The SVM-P is also compared with the back-propagation neural network combined with POLY (BPNN-P), and its performance is also better than BPNN-P (1.070 TECU).

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