scholarly journals Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Janssen ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos ◽  
Shady El Gewily ◽  
Joop De Beer
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Temporal Fluctuations ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Project Life ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: In Europe, women can expect to live on average 82 years, and men 75 years. Forecasting how life expectancy will develop in the future is essential for society. Most forecasts rely on a mechanical extrapolation of past mortality trends, which leads to unreliable outcomes because of temporal fluctuations in the past trends due to lifestyle 'epidemics'. Methods: We project life expectancy for 18 European countries by taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol on mortality, and the mortality experiences of forerunner populations. Results: We project that life expectancy in these 18 countries will increase from, on average, 83.4 years for women and 78.3 years for men in 2014 to 92.8 years for women and 90.5 years for men in 2065. Compared to others (Lee-Carter, Eurostat, United Nations), we project higher future life expectancy values and more realistic differences between countries and sexes. Conclusions: Our results imply longer individual lifespans, and more elderly in society. Funding: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (grant no. 452-13-001).

scholarly journals Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Janssen ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos ◽  
Shady El Gewily ◽  
Joop de Beer
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
United Nations ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Temporal Fluctuations ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Project Life ◽  
The Impact

In Europe, women can expect to live on average 82 years, and men 75 years. Forecasting how life expectancy will develop in the future is essential for society. Most forecasts rely on a mechanical extrapolation of past mortality trends, which leads to inaccurate outcomes because of temporal fluctuations in the past trends due to lifestyle “epidemics”. We project life expectancy for 18 European countries by taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol on mortality, and the mortality experiences of forerunner populations. We project that life expectancy will increase from, on average, 83.4 years for women and 78.3 years for men in 2014 to 92.8 years for women and 90.5 years for men in 2065. Compared to others (Lee-Carter, Eurostat, United Nations), we project higher future life expectancy values and more realistic differences between countries and sexes. Our results imply longer individual lifespans, and more elderly in society.

scholarly journals The impact of adopting the euro on the Croatian economy

Notitia ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-89
Author(s):  
Zlatko Čehulić ◽  
Rajka Hrbić
Keyword(s):  
Positive Influence ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

In this paper the impact of adopting the euro in Croatia is analysed using experiences of other countries which have passed through this process in the last decade and which are comparable with Croatia in many aspects. The process of adopting a currency different from the one that has been used for more than twenty years presents a very important economic question for each country. In this period preceding to adopting the euro, there is an opportunity to analyse this process in the countries which went through it in the past. The result of this paper shows the impacts of adopting the euro in the European countries. The selected countries, which are adequate for analysing the effects of adopting the euro, are: Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. These countries have been selected for different reasons. The majority of these countries have some similarities with Croatia, which are shown in this paper via relevant economic indicators. These results are significant for Croatia and show a positive influence on the Croatian market on a long-term basis. This paper is relevant and has a practical basis both for Croatia and other countries which will go through this process in the future.

scholarly journals The Reality Of Scientific Research In Iraqi Universities And Ways Of Upgrading

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 62-75
Author(s):  
Hussein Aliwi Nasser
Keyword(s):  
Previous History ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Verbal Description ◽  
Human Sciences ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Descriptive Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
Different Sources

The fields of scientific research expanded with the development of human civilization, where science was a practice of verbal description. It underwent a lot of change and development, and the Arabs had a long history in the field of science and scientists. The scientific messages contained the facts, theories and perceptions of the finest that can be obtained in any Another place of the world (1).       The objective of the research is to study the concept of scientific research in Iraq and to show its role in the service of society, and it is natural to face difficulties and obstacles, because upgrading it according to available possibilities. The research also dealt with the impact of Iraqi universities as the main incubator for scientific research.      As for the survey tools used in the research or the method used, the information was derived from different sources. The analytical descriptive descriptive approach was used in studying many of the developments and variables that accompanied the historical development of scientific research. As it is said, history is the "forefather of human sciences and (2), we are part of history, and one day we will turn to history, and history was the future of a date before and prior to the previous history. To understand the present, it is necessary to study the past in all its dimensions and to understand it in a way that helps us to predict the future and give the closest expectations to accuracy and realism.       With regard to the sources of the study, it relied on the official sources and references in the field of scientific research, as well as the translated Arabic references

scholarly journals The Impact of Ageing Population on Malaysian Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Mazlynda Md Yusuf ◽  
Sarina Mohamed ◽  
Mohamad Yazis Ali Basah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

An ageing population is a worldwide phenomenon, as the results of improvement in mortality rates and drops in fertility rate over the past century. Previously, this trend was focused among the developed countries of Europe and North America but over the past 20 years, the ageing population has started to grow in the developing countries, especially countries of Southeast Asia such as Malaysia. Given changes in fertility and improving life expectancy, the figure is expected to increase significantly. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, it is estimated that 6.5% of the total population is aged 65 and above in 2018 and this figure is expected to increase to 14.5% in 2040. With the current changes in the demographic trend, it is expected that there will be changes in the amount of savings and this could also lead to changes in the economic performances in the future. Thus, the main objective of this study is to examine the impact of the ageing population on economic growth in Malaysia by using annual data from the year 1985 to 2016. Total fertility rates, life expectancy, labour force participation rate and old-dependency ratio are variables that are used in the study. These data were analysed using Multiple Linear Regression Model and the results indicate that Malaysia is expected to experience the ageing population in the future and that it gives effect towards Malaysian's economic growth. Keywords: ageing population; economic growth; life expectancy; labour force participation; old-dependency ratio; fertility rates

scholarly journals Mandatory annuitization and money's worth: evidence from Singapore

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Joelle H. Fong ◽  
Jackie Li
Keyword(s):  
Expected Value ◽  
Longevity Risk ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Population Mortality ◽  
Mortality Improvement ◽  
Life Annuities ◽  
Compulsory Purchase ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper examines the impact of uncertainties in the future trends of mortality on annuity values in Singapore's compulsory purchase market. We document persistent population mortality improvement trends over the past few decades, which underscores the importance of longevity risk in this market. Using the money's worth framework, we find that the life annuities delivered expected payouts valued at 1.019–1.185 (0.973–1.170) per dollar of annuity premium for males (females). Even in a low mortality improvement scenario, the annuities provide an expected value exceeding 0.950. This suggests that participants in the national annuity pool have access to attractively priced annuities, regardless of sex, product, and premium invested.

Law Librarianship and Legal Information Provision in the 21st Century

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-10 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Legal Education ◽  
Legal Profession ◽  
Information Provision ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Legal Information ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this analysis of the future of our profession, Barbara Tearle starts by looking at the past to see how much the world of legal information has evolved and changed. She considers the nature of the profession today and then identifies key factors which she believes will be of importance in the future, including the impact of globalisation; the potential changes to the legal profession; technology; developments in legal education; increasing commercialisation and changes to the law itself.

scholarly journals Consumption of Politic Parties, in the Areas Where the Same Party Has Governed (Strongholds)

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-158
Author(s):  
Erindi Bejko
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
National Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Political Force ◽  
The Past ◽  
Election Process ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Future ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Political parties in Albania on several occasions during the past two decades have won the election in certain areas over 3 times in a row. While victory and governance of the same area, for sure creates a margin consumption which has affected the dynamics of the bastions at least in the recent national election. Parties are consumed in their strongholds if they decide the same candidates, either as a political force. In the focus of this article, will be the consuming steps of political parties in their stronghold areas, either reflecting the fall results during the election process. Will we have a final rupture in Albania consumption bastions of political parties and how would be the future of dynamic bastion, will be the question of this article scientific research. A fracture would have strongholds in shqipare perfuindimtare the consumption of political parties and how will be the future of dynamics will be bastions of this artikulil question scientific research. Bastion’s consumption occurs mainly from major political forces on the left if either of right on the study will be taken 4 constituencies which voted for the same party in three elections one by one. In our focus will be general elections, not local elections.

Writing and the Hermeneutics of Posthumous Publication

2018 ◽  
pp. 279-293
Author(s):  
Gavin Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Seventeenth Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This chapter examines Greville’s understanding of the afterlife of a man and his writings, and attempts to look at Greville’s afterlife in terms of that understanding. Greville was an author deeply interested in the past who aimed his writings determinedly at a posthumous readership: what is the relation between these two guiding perspectives, and what was the impact on Greville’s hermeneutics of his experience of Sidney’s posthumous publication and reception? The chapter first looks at what sort of hermeneutic activity seems to be expected and prepared for by Greville (how does the past have meaning for the present? how may the present have meaning for the future?). It then examines the broad outlines, and some particular details, of the posthumous dissemination of his works in the seventeenth century.

14. European Politics into the Future

2021 ◽  
pp. 256-269
Author(s):  
Catherine E. De Vries ◽  
Sara B. Hobolt ◽  
Sven-Oliver Proksch ◽  
Jonathan B. Slapin
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
European Countries ◽  
European Politics ◽  
Democratic Deficit ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
European Democracy ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This chapter explores recent changes in European politics and looks to the future for European democracy as it stands now. The chapter explores the ongoing political change that can be seen within European countries and also at the European Union (EU) level. It aims to highlight four important debates about the state of democracy in Europe. These are: the debates about the rise of political fragmentation and its consequences for democracy; democratic backsliding in central and eastern Europe; the impact of the United Kingdom leaving the EU on democracy; and the democratic deficit in EU politics.

scholarly journals Trends in Avoidable Mortality in Lithuania During 2001–2008 and Their Impact on Life Expectancy

Medicina ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vilius Grabauskas ◽  
Aldona Gaižauskienė ◽  
Skirmantė Sauliūnė ◽  
Rasa Mišeikytė
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Avoidable Mortality ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Causes Of Deaths ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
The Impact

The process of the restructuring of health care system in Lithuania demonstrates the need to continue the monitoring of changes in avoidable mortality. Objective. To assess the level of avoidable mortality as well as its changes over time in Lithuania during 2001–2008 and to define the impact of avoidable mortality on life expectancy. Material and Methods. The mortality data were taken from the Lithuanian Department of Statistics. Twelve avoidable causes of deaths (treatable and preventable) were analyzed. Mortality trends were assessed by computing the average annual percent change (AAPC). The shortening of average life expectancy was computed from survival tables. Results. During the period 2001–2008, the avoidable mortality was increasing more significantly (AAPC 3.0%, P<0.05) than the overall mortality (AAPC 1.7%, P<0.05) in the population aged 5–64 years. The increasing trend was mainly determined by mortality from preventable diseases (AAPC 4.6%, P<0.05). The avoidable causes of death reduced the life expectancy by 1.77 years (preventable by 1.12 and treatable by 0.63 years). Diversity in trends in mortality of different avoidable causes was disclosed. A declining trend in mortality caused by chronic rheumatic heart disease and lung cancer was observed for males (AAPC –22.6% and –2.1%, respectively; P<0.05). However, the mortality caused by liver cirrhosis was increasing for both genders (AAPC 16.1% for males and 17.6% for females, P<0.01) and that caused by tuberculosis – only for females (AAPC 7.8%, P<0.05). Conclusions. An increasing trend in avoidable mortality was observed. Deaths caused by the diseases that could have been prevented had the greatest impact on the increasing mortality and decreasing life expectancy.

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