scholarly journals Forecast of Long-term Trend of System Marginal Price with Amounts of Machine Learning Train Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 13-24
Author(s):  
Kyeong-Rok Mun ◽  
Keon-Woo Lee ◽  
Kyung-Nam Ko
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Marginal Price ◽  
Long Term Trend

scholarly journals Forecasting the long-term trend of COVID-19 epidemic using a dynamic model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jichao Sun ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Ziheng Zhang ◽  
Shengzhang Lai ◽  
Bo Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Background The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has recently been declared as a pandemic and spread over 200 countries and territories. Forecasting the long-term trend of the COVID-19 epidemic can help health authorities determine the transmission characteristics of the virus and take appropriate prevention and control strategies beforehand. Previous studies that applied the traditional epidemic models or machine learning models were subject to underfitting or overfitting problems.Methods We propose a new model named Dynamic-Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Quarantined (D-SEIQ), by making appropriate modifications of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) model and integrating machine learning based parameter optimization under epidemiological rational constraints. We used the model to predict the long-term reported cumulative numbers of COVID-19 cases in China from 27 January, 2020.Results We evaluated our model on officially reported confirmed cases from three different regions in China, and the results proved the effectiveness of our model in terms of simulating and predicting the trend of COVID-19 outbreak. In China-Excluding-Hubei area within 7 days after the first public report, our model successfully and accurately predicted the 40 days long trend and the exact date of turning point. The predicted cumulative number (12,506) by 10, March 2020 was only 3·8% different with the actual number (13,005). The parameters obtained by our model proved the effectiveness of prevention and intervention strategies on epidemic control in China.Conclusions The integrated approach of epidemic and machine learning models could accurately forecast the long-term trend of COVID-19 outbreak. The learned parameters suggested the effectiveness of intervention measures taken in China.

scholarly journals Forecasting the long-term trend of COVID-19 epidemic using a dynamic model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jichao Sun ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Ziheng Zhang ◽  
Shengzhang Lai ◽  
Bo Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Machine Learning Models

AbstractThe current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has recently been declared as a pandemic and spread over 200 countries and territories. Forecasting the long-term trend of the COVID-19 epidemic can help health authorities determine the transmission characteristics of the virus and take appropriate prevention and control strategies beforehand. Previous studies that solely applied traditional epidemic models or machine learning models were subject to underfitting or overfitting problems. We propose a new model named Dynamic-Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Quarantined (D-SEIQ), by making appropriate modifications of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) model and integrating machine learning based parameter optimization under epidemiological rational constraints. We used the model to predict the long-term reported cumulative numbers of COVID-19 cases in China from January 27, 2020. We evaluated our model on officially reported confirmed cases from three different regions in China, and the results proved the effectiveness of our model in terms of simulating and predicting the trend of the COVID-19 outbreak. In China-Excluding-Hubei area within 7 days after the first public report, our model successfully and accurately predicted the long trend up to 40 days and the exact date of the outbreak peak. The predicted cumulative number (12,506) by March 10, 2020, was only 3·8% different from the actual number (13,005). The parameters obtained by our model proved the effectiveness of prevention and intervention strategies on epidemic control in China. The prediction results for five other countries suggested the external validity of our model. The integrated approach of epidemic and machine learning models could accurately forecast the long-term trend of the COVID-19 outbreak. The model parameters also provided insights into the analysis of COVID-19 transmission and the effectiveness of interventions in China.

NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert E. Beaton ◽  
James R. Chromy
Keyword(s):  
Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend

scholarly journals A Potential Risk Index Dataset for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Chinese Mainland (PRITC dataset V1.0)

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
pp. 1791-1802
Author(s):  
Peiyan Chen ◽  
Hui Yu ◽  
Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽  
Jiajie Xin ◽  
Yi Lu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Current Version ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The Chinese Mainland ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractA dataset entitled “A potential risk index dataset for landfalling tropical cyclones over the Chinese mainland” (PRITC dataset V1.0) is described in this paper, as are some basic statistical analyses. Estimating the severity of the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall on the Chinese mainland based on observations from 1401 meteorological stations was proposed in a previous study, including an index combining TC-induced precipitation and wind (IPWT) and further information, such as the corresponding category level (CAT_IPWT), an index of TC-induced wind (IWT), and an index of TC-induced precipitation (IPT). The current version of the dataset includes TCs that made landfall from 1949–2018; the dataset will be extended each year. Long-term trend analyses demonstrate that the severity of the TC impacts on the Chinese mainland have increased, as embodied by the annual mean IPWT values, and increases in TCinduced precipitation are the main contributor to this increase. TC Winnie (1997) and TC Bilis (2006) were the two TCs with the highest IPWT and IPT values, respectively. The PRITC V1.0 dataset was developed based on the China Meteorological Administration’s tropical cyclone database and can serve as a bridge between TC hazards and their social and economic impacts.

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