Evaluation of Oil Spill Modeling in Ice Against In Situ Drifter Data from the Beaufort Sea

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (1) ◽  
pp. 1523-1542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah French-McCay ◽  
Tayebeh Tajalli Bakhsh ◽  
Malcolm L. Spaulding

ABSTRACT While coupled ice-ocean models provide reliable hindcasts and large-scale predictions of ice conditions and movements in the Arctic, to date, operational models have not been implemented with sufficient spatial resolution or skill to define sea ice characteristics and dynamics needed for high resolution oil spill trajectory forecast modeling. Recently (2015) Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NERSC) researchers updated their modeling approach and rheology used for pack ice. They found that using the newly developed Elasto-Brittle (EB) model showed significant improvement in performance over the present Elastic-Viscous-Plastic (EVP) modeling approach used in the operational forecast and reanalysis versions of their TOPAZ4 coupled ice-ocean model. NERSC also integrated a wave-in-ice model (WIM) into a newly updated version of TOPAZ, to characterize waves in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). RPS ASA’s oil transport and fate models OILMAP and SIMAP (OIL/Spill Impact Model Application Package) were updated, integrating the NERSC ice modeling products for use in transport and oil weathering algorithms. Oil trajectory model simulations, using the existing publically-available TOPAZ4 and updated ice model products, were compared with available in situ drifter data for the Beaufort Sea from the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP). The goal was to evaluate model performance (skill) against drifters that were trapped in the pack ice where the EB/EVP rheology applies. The comparisons show that model-based trajectories increasingly diverged from observations over days and weeks due to cumulative errors. The model using EB rheology more closely agreed with the IABP observations than TOPAZ with EVP, and the updated TOPAZ showed improved model performance over TOPAZ4. However, model skill was degraded by time-averaging of ocean and ice model vectors before input to the oil spill model. Demonstrated improvement of oil-in-ice spill modeling would help meet the needs for Arctic oil spill response in the coming decades. While the accuracy of individual oil model trajectories projected weeks to months into the future would be expected to be low, in the event of a spill, forecasts could be updated frequently (on a time scale of hours to days) with satellite information, aircraft observations, drifter data, and other observations to improve reliability. The overall transport patterns and results of an ensemble of trajectories would provide useful information for planning and risk assessments based on typical current and ice movement patterns.

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 845-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. K. Scharien ◽  
K. Hochheim ◽  
J. Landy ◽  
D. G. Barber

Abstract. Observed changes in the Arctic have motivated efforts to understand and model its components as an integrated and adaptive system at increasingly finer scales. Sea ice melt pond fraction, an important summer sea ice component affecting surface albedo and light transmittance across the ocean-sea ice–atmosphere interface, is inadequately parameterized in models due to a lack of large scale observations. In this paper, results from a multi-scale remote sensing program dedicated to the retrieval of pond fraction from satellite C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) are detailed. The study was conducted on first-year sea (FY) ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago during the summer melt period in June 2012. Approaches to retrieve the subscale FY ice pond fraction from mixed pixels in RADARSAT-2 imagery, using in situ, surface scattering theory, and image data are assessed. Each algorithm exploits the dominant effect of high dielectric free-water ponds on the VV/HH polarisation ratio (PR) at moderate to high incidence angles (about 40° and above). Algorithms are applied to four images corresponding to discrete stages of the seasonal pond evolutionary cycle, and model performance is assessed using coincident pond fraction measurements from partitioned aerial photos. A RMSE of 0.07, across a pond fraction range of 0.10 to 0.70, is achieved during intermediate and late seasonal stages. Weak model performance is attributed to wet snow (pond formation) and synoptically driven pond freezing events (all stages), though PR has utility for identification of these events when considered in time series context. Results demonstrate the potential of wide-swath, dual-polarisation, SAR for large-scale observations of pond fraction with temporal frequency suitable for process-scale studies and improvements to model parameterizations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3745-3758 ◽  
Author(s):  
François Massonnet ◽  
Antoine Barthélemy ◽  
Koffi Worou ◽  
Thierry Fichefet ◽  
Martin Vancoppenolle ◽  
...  

Abstract. The ice thickness distribution (ITD) is one of the core constituents of modern sea ice models. The ITD accounts for the unresolved spatial variability of sea ice thickness within each model grid cell. While there is a general consensus on the added physical realism brought by the ITD, how to discretize it remains an open question. Here, we use the ocean–sea ice general circulation model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) version 3.6 and Louvain-la-Neuve sea Ice Model (LIM) version 3 (NEMO3.6-LIM3), forced by atmospheric reanalyses to test how the ITD discretization (number of ice thickness categories, positions of the category boundaries) impacts the simulated mean Arctic and Antarctic sea ice states. We find that winter ice volumes in both hemispheres increase with the number of categories and attribute that increase to a net enhancement of basal ice growth rates. The range of simulated mean winter volumes in the various experiments amounts to ∼30 % and ∼10 % of the reference values (run with five categories) in the Arctic and Antarctic, respectively. This suggests that the way the ITD is discretized has a significant influence on the model mean state, all other things being equal. We also find that the existence of a thick category with lower bounds at ∼4 and ∼2 m for the Arctic and Antarctic, respectively, is a prerequisite for allowing the storage of deformed ice and therefore for fostering thermodynamic growth in thinner categories. Our analysis finally suggests that increasing the resolution of the ITD without changing the lower limit of the upper category results in small but not negligible variations of ice volume and extent. Our study proposes for the first time a bi-polar process-based explanation of the origin of mean sea ice state changes when the ITD discretization is modified. The sensitivity experiments conducted in this study, based on one model, emphasize that the choice of category positions, especially of thickest categories, has a primary influence on the simulated mean sea ice states while the number of categories and resolution have only a secondary influence. It is also found that the current default discretization of the NEMO3.6-LIM3 model is sufficient for large-scale present-day climate applications. In all cases, the role of the ITD discretization on the simulated mean sea ice state has to be appreciated relative to other influences (parameter uncertainty, forcing uncertainty, internal climate variability).


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 2774
Author(s):  
Marta Konik ◽  
Piotr Kowalczuk ◽  
Monika Zabłocka ◽  
Anna Makarewicz ◽  
Justyna Meler ◽  
...  

The Nordic Seas and the Fram Strait regions are a melting pot of a number of water masses characterized by distinct optical water properties. The warm Atlantic Waters transported from the south and the Arctic Waters from the north, combined with the melt waters contributing to the Polar Waters, mediate the dynamic changes of the year-to-year large-scale circulation patterns in the area, which often form complex frontal zones. In the last decade, moreover, a significant shift in phytoplankton phenology in the area has been observed, with a certain northward expansion of temperate phytoplankton communities into the Arctic Ocean which could lead to a deterioration in the performance of remote sensing algorithms. In this research, we exploited the capability of the satellite sensors to monitor those inter-annual changes at basin scales. We propose locally adjusted algorithms for retrieving chlorophyll a concentrations Chla, absorption by particles ap at 443 and 670 nm, and total absorption atot at 443 and 670 nm developed on the basis of intensive field work conducted in 2013–2015. Measured in situ hyper spectral remote sensing reflectance has been used to reconstruct the MODIS and OLCI spectral channels for which the proposed algorithms have been adapted. We obtained MNB ≤ 0.5% for ap(670) and ≤3% for atot(670) and Chla. RMS was ≤30% for most of the retrieved optical water properties except ap(443) and Chla. The mean monthly mosaics of ap(443) computed on the basis of the proposed algorithm were used for reconstructing the spatial and temporal changes of the phytoplankton biomass in 2013–2015. The results corresponded very well with in situ measurements.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Berchet ◽  
Isabelle Pison ◽  
Patrick M. Crill ◽  
Brett Thornton ◽  
Philippe Bousquet ◽  
...  

Abstract. Due to the large variety and heterogeneity of sources in remote areas hard to document, the Arctic regional methane budget remain very uncertain. In situ campaigns provide valuable data sets to reduce these uncertainties. Here we analyse data from the SWERUS-C3 campaign, on-board the icebreaker Oden, that took place during summer 2014 in the Arctic Ocean along the Northern Siberian and Alaskan shores. Total concentrations of methane, as well as isotopic ratios were measured continuously during this campaign for 35 days in July and August 2014. Using a chemistry-transport model, we link observed concentrations and isotopic ratios to regional emissions and hemispheric transport structures. A simple inversion system helped constraining source signatures from wetlands in Siberia and Alaska and oceanic sources, as well as the isotopic composition of lower stratosphere air masses. The variation in the signature of low stratosphere air masses, due to strongly fractionating chemical reactions in the stratosphere, was suggested to explain a large share of the observed variability in isotopic ratios. These points at required efforts to better simulate large scale transport and chemistry patterns to use isotopic data in remote areas. It is found that constant and homogeneous source signatures for each type of emission in the region (mostly wetlands and oil and gas industry) is not compatible with the strong synoptic isotopic signal observed in the Arctic. A regional gradient in source signatures is highlighted between Siberian and Alaskan wetlands, the later ones having a lighter signatures than the first ones. Arctic continental shelf sources are suggested to be a mixture of methane from a dominant thermogenic origin and a secondary biogenic one, consistent with previous in-situ isotopic analysis of seepage along the Siberian shores.


2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (1) ◽  
pp. 1487-1506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph V. Mullin

Abstract 2017-161 Over the past four decades, the oil and gas industry has made significant advances in being able to detect, contain and clean up spills and mitigate the residual consequences in Arctic environments. Many of these advances were achieved through collaborative research programs involving industry, academic and government partners. The Arctic Oil Spill Response Technology - Joint Industry Programme (JIP), was launched in 2012 and completed in early 2017 with the objectives of building on an already extensive knowledge base to further improve Arctic spill response capabilities and better understand the environmental issues involved in selecting and implementing the most effective response strategies. The JIP was a collaboration of nine oil and gas companies (BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, ExxonMobil, North Caspian Operating Company, Shell, Statoil, and Total) and focused on six key areas of oil spill response: dispersants; environmental effects; trajectory modeling; remote sensing; mechanical recovery and in-situ burning. The JIP provided a vehicle for sharing knowledge among the participants and international research institutions and disseminating information to regulators, the public and stakeholders. The network of engaged scientists and government agencies increased opportunities to develop and test oil spill response technologies while raising awareness of industry efforts to advance the existing capabilities in Arctic oil spill response. The JIP consisted of two phases, the first included technical assessments and state of knowledge reviews resulting in a library of sixteen documents available on the JIP website. The majority of the JIP efforts focused on Phase 2, actual experiments, and included laboratory, small and medium scale tank tests, and field research experiments. Three large-scale field tests were conducted in the winter and spring months of 2014–2016 including recent participation of the JIP in the 2016 NOFO oil on water exercise off Norway. The JIP was the largest pan-industry programme dedicated to oil spill response in the Arctic, ever carried out. Twenty seven research projects were successfully and safely conducted by the world’s foremost experts on oil spill response from across industry, academia, and independent scientific institutions in ten countries. The overarching goal of the research was to address the differing aspects involved in oil spill response, including the methods used, and their applicability to the Arctic’s unique conditions. All research projects were conducted using established protocols and proven scientific technologies, some of which were especially adjusted for ice conditions. This paper describes the scope of the research conducted, results, and key findings. The JIP is committed to full transparency in disseminating the results through peer reviewed journal articles, and all JIP research reports are available free of charge at www.arcticresponsetechnology.org.


2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 11405-11452 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Forest ◽  
L. Stemmann ◽  
M. Picheral ◽  
L. Burdorf ◽  
D. Robert ◽  
...  

Abstract. The size distribution and mean spatial trends of large particles (>100 μm, in equivalent spherical diameter, ESD) and mesozooplankton were investigated across the Mackenzie Shelf (Southeast Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean) in July–August 2009. Our main objective was to combine results from an Underwater Vision Profiler 5 (UVP5) and traditional net tows (200 μm mesh size) to characterize the structural diversity and functioning of the Arctic shelf-basin ecosystem and to assess the large-scale correspondence between the two methodological approaches. The core dataset comprised 154 UVP5 profiles and 29 net tows conducted in the shelf (<100 m isobath), slope (100–1000 m) and basin (>1000 m) regions of the study area. The mean abundance of total particles and zooplankton in the upper water column (<75 m depth) declined exponentially with increasing distance from shore. Vertical and latitudinal patterns in total particle concentration followed those of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration, with maximum values between 30 and 70 m depth. Based on the size-spectra derived from the UVP5 dataset, living organisms (0.1–10 mm ESD) accounted for an increasingly large proportion of total particle abundance (from 0.1% to > 50 %) when progressing offshore and as the ESD of particles was increasing. Both the UVP5 and net tows determined that copepods dominated the zooplankton community (~78–94 % by numbers) and that appendicularians were generally the second most abundant group (~1–11 %). The vertical distribution patterns of copepods and appendicularians indicated a close association between primary production and the main grazers. Manual taxonomic counts and ZooScan image analyses shed further light on the size-structure and composition of the copepod community – which was dominated at ~95 % by a guild of 10 typical taxa. The size distributions of copepods, as evaluated with the 3 methods (manual counts, ZooScan and UVP5), showed consistent patterns co-varying in the same order of magnitude over the upper size range (>1 mm ESD). Copepods < 1 mm were not well quantified by the UVP5, which estimated that only ~13–25 % of the assemblage was composed of copepods < 1 mm ESD compared with ~77–89 % from the net tow estimates. However, the biovolume of copepods was overwhelmingly dominated (~93–97 %) by copepods >1 mm ESD. Our results illustrate that the combination of traditional sampling methods and automated imaging techniques is a powerful approach that enabled us to conclude on the prevalence of a relatively high productivity regime and dominant herbivorous food web over the shelf when compared with the low-productive recycling system detected offshore.


2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 7257-7289 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Durantou ◽  
A. Rochon ◽  
D. Ledu ◽  
G. Massé

Abstract. Dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages have been widely used over the Arctic Ocean to reconstruct sea-surface parameters on a quantitative basis. Such reconstructions provide insights into the role of anthropogenic vs natural forcings in the actual climatic trend. Here, we present the palynological analysis of a 36 cm-long core collected from the Mackenzie Through in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. Dinocyst assemblages were used to quantitatively reconstruct the evolution of sea surface conditions (temperature, salinity, sea ice) and freshwater palynomorphs influxes were used as local paleo-river discharge indicators over the last ~150 yr. Dinocyst assemblages are dominated by autotrophic taxa (68 to 96 %). Pentapharsodinium dalei is the dominant specie throughout most of the core, except at the top where the assemblages are dominated by Operculodinium centrocarpum. Quantitative reconstructions of sea surface parameters display a serie of relatively warm, lower sea ice and saline episodes in surface waters, alternately with relatively cool and low salinity episodes. The warm episodes are characterized with high dinocyst productivity. Variations of dinocyst influxes and reconstructed sea surface conditions are closely linked to large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and to a lesser degree, the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive phases of the PDO correspond to increases of dinocyst influxes, warmer and saltier surface waters, which we associate with upwelling events of warm and relatively saline water from Pacific origin. Freshwater palynomorph influxes increased in three phases from AD 1857 until reaching maximum values in AD 1991, suggesting that the Mackenzie River discharge followed the same trend when its discharge peaked between AD 1989 and AD 1992. The PDO mode seems to dominate the climatic variations at multi-annual to decadal timescales in the Western Canadian Arctic and Beaufort Sea areas.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Cabaj ◽  
Paul Kushner ◽  
Alek Petty ◽  
Stephen Howell ◽  
Christopher Fletcher

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Snow on Arctic sea ice plays multiple&amp;#8212;and sometimes contrasting&amp;#8212;roles in several feedbacks between sea ice and the global climate &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;system.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; For example, the presence of snow on sea ice may mitigate sea ice melt by&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; increasing the sea ice albedo &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;and enhancing the ice-albedo feedback. Conversely, snow can&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; in&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;hibit sea ice growth by insulating the ice from the atmosphere during the &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;sea ice &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;growth season. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;In addition to its contribution to sea ice feedbacks, snow on sea ice also poses a challenge for sea ice observations. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;In particular, &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;snow &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;contributes to uncertaint&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;ies&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; in retrievals of sea ice thickness from satellite altimetry &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;measurements, &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;such as those from ICESat-2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;Snow-on-sea-ice models can&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; produce basin-wide snow depth estimates, but these models require snowfall input from reanalysis products. In-situ snowfall measurements are a&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;bsent&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; over most of the Arctic Ocean, so it can be difficult to determine which reanalysis &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;snowfall&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; product is b&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;est&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; suited to be used as&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; input for a snow-on-sea-ice model.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;In the absence of in-situ snowfall rate measurements, &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;measurements from &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;satellite instruments can be used to quantify snowfall over the Arctic Ocean&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;The CloudSat satellite, which is equipped with a 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar instrument, measures vertical radar reflectivity profiles from which snowfall rate&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;s&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; can be retrieved. &lt;/span&gt; &lt;span&gt;T&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;his instrument&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; provides the most extensive high-latitude snowfall rate observation dataset currently available. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;CloudSat&amp;#8217;s near-polar orbit enables it to make measurements at latitudes up to 82&amp;#176;N, with a 16-day repeat cycle, &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;over the time period from 2006-2016.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;We present a calibration of reanalysis snowfall to CloudSat observations over the Arctic Ocean, which we then apply to reanalysis snowfall input for the NASA Eulerian Snow On Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM). This calibration reduces the spread in snow depths produced by NESOSIM w&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;hen&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; different reanalysis inputs &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;are used&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;In light of this calibration, we revise the NESOSIM parametrizations of wind-driven snow processes, and we characterize the uncertainties in NESOSIM-generated snow depths resulting from uncertainties in snowfall input. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;We then extend this analysis further to estimate the resulting uncertainties in sea ice thickness retrieved from ICESat-2 when snow depth estimates from NESOSIM are used as input for the retrieval.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;


2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 114-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin E. Moreland ◽  
Michael F. Cameron ◽  
Robyn P. Angliss ◽  
Peter L. Boveng

The remote pack ice of the arctic and subarctic seas is challenging to access, yet extremely important to understand and monitor. The pack ice holds the key to understanding ecosystem responses to climate change and is vital habitat for many species including ice-associated seals. Unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS) are a new class of tools that may overcome the traditional challenges associated with expansive offshore surveys. We conducted UAS flights over the pack ice during a spring 2009 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cruise to the Bering Sea to determine whether advances in UAS technology can enable effective large-scale, systematic ship-based surveys for seals in the seasonal ice of the Bering, Beaufort, and Chukchi Seas. A fixed-wing ScanEagle UAS was successfully launched and recovered from the NOAA ship McArthur II to conduct small-scale transect surveys up to 5 nautical miles (M) from the ship's position. More than 27 000 images were collected from 10 flights over the Bering Sea pack ice and seals were identified in 110 of these images. Review of the images indicated a marked reduction in disturbance to seals when compared to images collected from occupied, low-altitude helicopter surveys. These results suggest that large-scale UAS surveys of arctic and subarctic habitat in United States airspace will be possible with improvements in technology, reduced operational costs, and the establishment of inclusive airspace regulations.


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