scholarly journals RISK ASSESSMENT OF AGGREGATE LOSS BY STORM SURGE INUNDATION IN ISE AND MIKAWA BAY

Author(s):  
Shota Hirai ◽  
Tomohiro Yasuda

In the event of disaster, the risk of disaster are intertwined, and there is an occurrence possibility of simultaneous damage in multiple areas. Nationwide companies have more risks of simultaneous damage in multiple areas by one disaster. For example, factories in Osaka and in Nagoya, can be damaged by one typhoon. In this case, company will need more money when damage happened and better to make special insurance contract, e.g. Catastrophe bond. On the other hand, insurance company has to assess amount of insurance payout because to pay it for contracted companies quickly. Insurance company may have difficulty to estimate total amount since there are few researches assessing aggregate loss caused by coastal disasters. This research proposes a procedure of assessment of aggregate loss by storm surges in Ise and Mikawa Bay located in Aichi prefecture, Japan.

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (99) ◽  
pp. 110-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Malinowska

The article aims to present trends in the risk assessment and entities involved in this process in the changing world. The underwriting process has been analyzed in terms of law, in the light of changing regulations, and what is more, in the context of new technologies increasingly used in insurance. The purpose of the article is to determine if technology causes the necessity to change the approach to the principles of insurance contract and how it affects the activities of insurers. To achieve this goal two aspects have been considered, namely, whether the use of new technologies by insurers in the process of risk assessment and, on the other hand, whether the emerging risks dependent on new technologies exert an influence on the rules governing the insurance contract.


Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.


Author(s):  
Milica Slijepcevic ◽  
Jelena Krstic

Research question: This paper studies the relation between organizational culture and perceived organizational effectiveness of an insurance company in a developing country with an emerging economy.Motivation: The main objective of the research is to determine whether there is a correlation between organizational culture and climate as a narrower concept, on the one hand and perceived organizational effectiveness on the other hand. Some authors noted a correlation between these organizational aspects. For example, Yan (2016) empirically confirmed that organizational culture positively and significantly correlates with organizational effectiveness. The relationship between organizational culture and organizational effectiveness was also examined by Cox and Trotter (2016), Chen (2017) and Deem, De Lotell and Kelly (2015). Idea: Starting from the findings of other authors that organizational culture indeed affects effectiveness, the authors of this paper wanted to examine whether this relation existed in  a state-owned insurance company in an emerging economy and if so, how to use this  to improve employees’ performance and overall business results. Data: They conducted the research in June 2017 on the sample of employees of Dunav Insurance Company and obtained six hundred and sixty six valid questionnaires. Tools: The questionnaires consisted of five general questions about demographic variables and twenty-nine closed-ended questions related to the topic. The researchers assessed the correlation between variables by Spearman Rho Coefficient and Chi-Square significance. Findings: The results showed the relationship between a number of aspects of organizational culture and climate on one hand and perceived organizational effectiveness on the other hand. Research results showed that the evaluation of effective utilization of working hours and professional capabilities is largely connected with the aspects of organizational climate that reflect poor working conditions and unethical attitude of employees. However, the evaluation of effective utilization of professional capabilities also relates to the perception of predominant aspects of an organizational climate that inspire positive internal relations. Contribution: The results presented in the paper can be used as the basis for organizational and managerial decision-making to improve work processes in the observed organization.


2002 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-91
Author(s):  
WANYAMA KULUNDU-BITONYE

One of the most critical factors on the conclusion of an insurance contract is to determine the extent of the insurance risk or cover. This enables parties to the contract to ascertain for themselves the rights and obligations under the policy. On the one hand, the extent of insurance risk determines what is recoverable by the insured or assured on the occurrence of the insured event, and, on the other hand, what level of liability is assumed and the premiums payable to the insurer. The extent of insurance risk also determines what rememdial action, if any, may be undertaken by the insured or assured by way of taking out extra insurance, if the policy at hand is not adequate.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yueming Liu ◽  
Chen Lu ◽  
Xiaomei Yang ◽  
Zhihua Wang ◽  
Bin Liu

In the assessment of storm surge vulnerability, existing studies have often selected several types of disaster-bearing bodies and assessed their exposure. In reality, however, storm surges impact all types of disaster-bearing bodies in coastal and estuarine areas. Therefore, all types of disaster-bearing bodies exposed to storm surges should be considered when assessing exposure. In addition, geographical factors will also have an impact on the exposure of the affected bodies, and thus need to be fully considered. Hence, we propose a fine-scale coastal storm surge disaster vulnerability and risk assessment model. First, fine-scale land-use data were obtained based on high-resolution remote sensing images. Combined with natural geographic factors, such as the digital elevation model (DEM), slope, and distance to water, the exposure of the disaster-bearing bodies in each geographic unit of the coastal zone was comprehensively determined. A total of five indicators, such as the percentage of females and ratio of fishery products to the gross domestic product (GDP), were then selected to assess sensitivity. In addition, six indicators, including GDP and general public budget expenditure, were selected to assess adaptability. Utilizing the indicators constructed from exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability, a vulnerability assessment was performed in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay, China, which is at high risk from storm surges. Furthermore, the storm surge risk assessment was achieved in combination with storm water statistics. The results revealed that the Kenli District, Changyi City, and the Hanting District have a higher risk of storm surge and require more attention during storm surges. The storm surge vulnerability and risk assessment model proposed in this experiment fully considers the impact of the natural environment on the exposure indicators of the coastal zone’s disaster-bearing bodies, and combines sensitivity, adaptability indicators, and storm water record data to conduct vulnerability and risk assessment. At the same time, the model proposed in this study can also realize multi-scale assessment of storm surge vulnerability and risk based on different scales of socioeconomic statistical data, which has the advantages of flexibility and ease of operation.


2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (5) ◽  
pp. 972-979
Author(s):  
Noor A. Sh. Al-Naymi ◽  
Ahmed J. Mohammed ◽  
Muhanned R. Nashaat

The estimating of ash toxicity collected from Durah power plant (DPP) which is located in Baghdad Governorate was done by exposed cladoceran Simocephalus vetulus to different ash concentrations. Thus, the first of its kind study by assessing the toxic effect of these effluents in the selected laboratory individual's food chain. The acute toxicity test of ash was assessed by LC50 and mortality percentage. LC50 of ash on S. vetulus were 0.14, 0.11 and 0.1 ppt during 24, 48 and 72 hr., respectively. On the other hand, it was shown that increasing the concentrations of ash leads to an increase mortality percentage. It was observed that the maximum mortality percentage  (LC100) when exposed to 0.2 and 0.19 ppt at 24 hr. of exposing. On the other hand, the minimum mortality percentages were 0% (LC0) when exposed to 0.1 ppt at 24 hr., this percentage increased to 43% and 56% after 48 and 72 hr., respectively. Also, some obvious changes were observed in the animal behavior, such as slowness at first, then settle on the bottom of the beakers with stopped the antenna and thoracic appendages followed by a weak in a heartbeat. It was shown that the ash concentrations result in inhibiting the survival and increased the mortality percentage, this may be related with the presence of the toxic constituents in ash and change in pH level which was caused a harmful effect.


Author(s):  
Oskars Podziņš ◽  
Andrejs Romānovs

There are numerous methods for risk identification and risk assessment phases. Which for risk identification includes historical and systematic approach and inductive or theoretical analysis. One of the main reasons why risk identification is very helpful is that it provides justification in many cases for any large IT investment and other large undertakings. Without it organization probably wouldn’t be able to come to conclusion. Also in this phase business recognize the threats, vulnerabilities, and assets associated with its IT systems. Together with risk assessment phase risk management specialist is responsible for determining asset value, what's the value of the asset business is protecting, and risk acceptance level. Risk assessment on the other hand examines impact or consequence, as well as examines and evaluates the likelihood or probability of that adverse event happening. Risk assessment includes methods like Bayesian analysis, Bow Tie Analysis, brainstorming or structured interviews, business impact analysis, cause and consequence, cause-and-effect analysis, Delphi method, event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, hazard analysis, hazard and operational studies, and finally structured what if technique or SWIFT process. Risk assessment has two distinctive assessment types- quantitative and qualitative assessment. Quantitative assessment tries to put a monetary value on all risks. Qualitative assessment on the other hand rather look at it from a range of values like low, medium, high. The results of these phases are going to be documented in the risk assessment report and reported to senior management.


Risk sharing is an activity which integrates recognition of risk, awareness of a party's capability, risk assessment, and developing strategies to accept and own the risk using managerial resources. Some traditional risk sharing philosophy is focused on taking risk of a lesser costs to the risk taker. Proper risk sharing, on the other hand, focuses on taking and acceptable risk within the capacity of the party to manage. Objective of proper risk sharing is to reduce the possibility the risk taker would not perform the part of the bargain. It may refer to numerous types of measures a partner would undertake to ensure the risk taken does not prevent the partner from performing part of the bargain. The chapter describes the different steps in risk sharing process which methods are used in the different steps, and provides some examples for risk acceptance and risk sharing that can be pursued by a partner.


Author(s):  
Naoto Kasahara ◽  
Izumi Nakamura ◽  
Hideo Machida ◽  
Koji Okamoto ◽  
Takuya Sato

Based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, it is recognized the importance of the risk assessment and mitigation for failure consequences to avoid catastrophic failure of pressure equipment during severe accidents (SA) and excessive earthquake. The objectives of structural design (from the first layer to the third layer of the defense-in-depth) is strength confirmation under assumed loading conditions. On the other hand, ones of risk assessment and mitigation (the forth layer of the defense-in-depth) is prediction of realistic failure scenarios. Through investigation of failure locations and modes of main components under both severe accident and excessive earthquake, different failure modes from DBE(Design Basis Events) were identified for BDBE(Beyond Design Basis Events). To clarify these modes, the failure mechanisms were studied with some strength experiments. For most of failure modes, their dominant parameters are inelastic strain rather than stress. So that large scale inelastic analysis methods were studied and extended to very high temperature and large strain. By using above results, this paper has proposed the new structural analysis approach for risk assessment under BDBE. This is the extension of “design by analysis” concept. However it is clearly different from design approach from next viewpoints. (1) Additional failure modes to design condition Such additional failure modes induced by excessive loadings are considered for as local failure, creep rupture, creep buckling, ratcheting collapse and so on. (2) Identification of dominant failure modes Design codes require conservative evaluation against all of assumed failure modes. On the other hand, risk assessment needs adequate failure scenarios, where failure locations, modes and their order are important. For that reason, dominant failure modes have to be identified. To identify dominant modes, failure mode map concept was proposed. (3) Best estimation To estimate realistic accident phenomena, the best estimation is required. Therefore, dominant strength parameters and criteria without safety margins should be adopted. Through strength mechanism investigations, plastic and creep strain are recognized as more dominant parameters than stress for many failure modes. So that realistic inelastic analyses are recommended for BDBE.


2014 ◽  
Vol 580-583 ◽  
pp. 2628-2634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Liu ◽  
Shuo Yang

Storm surge causes severe casualties and commercial losses to the habitant living within the range of it frequently, and has been one of the most harmful and prevailing hazards that attacks coastal areas. This paper is dedicated to reviewing and analyzing the methodologies and models that are generally used to assess the storm surge risk. Firstly, by means of analyzing the existing models of hazard risk assessment, indicating the purpose, process and methodologies. Secondly based on the analysis a comparison of the basic profile has taken into practice, and the advantages and limitations of the models are discussed. Finally, associating with the impacts of storm surges that affect China, we bring up a research direction that leads to further studies.


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