Comparison of Reanalysis and Observational Precipitation Datasets Including ERA5 and WFDE5

Precipitation is a key component of the hydrological cycle and one of the most important variables in weather and climate studies. Accurate and reliable precipitation data are crucial for determining climate trends and variability. In this study, eleven different precipitation datasets are compared, six reanalysis and five observational datasets, including the reanalysis datasets ERA5 and WFDE5 from the ECMWF family, to quantify the differences between the widely used precipitation datasets and to identify their particular strengths and shortcomings. The comparisons are focused on the common time period 1983 through 2016 and on monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual times scales in regions representing different precipitation regimes, i.e., the Tropics, the Pacific Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Central Europe, and the South Asian Monsoon region. For the analysis, satellite-gauge precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP-SG) are used as a reference. The comparison shows that ERA5 and ERA5-Land are a clear improvement over ERA-Interim and show in most cases smaller biases than the other reanalysis datasets (e.g., around 13% high bias in the Tropics compared to 17% for MERRA-2 and 36% for JRA-55). ERA5 agrees well with observations for Central Europe and the South Asian Monsoon region but underestimates very low precipitation rates in the Tropics. In particular, the tropical ocean remains challenging for reanalyses with three out of four products overestimating precipitation rates over the Atlantic and Indian Ocean.

Constraining the chronology and ecology of Late Acheulean and Middle Palaeolithic occupations at the margins of the monsoon

South Asia hosts the world’s youngest Acheulean sites, with dated records typically restricted to sub-humid landscapes. The Thar Desert marks a major adaptive boundary between monsoonal Asia to the east and the Saharo-Arabian desert belt to the west, making it a key threshold to examine patterns of hominin ecological adaptation and its impacts on patterns of behaviour, demography and dispersal. Here, we investigate Palaeolithic occupations at the western margin of the South Asian monsoon at Singi Talav, undertaking new chronometric, sedimentological and palaeoecological studies of Acheulean and Middle Palaeolithic occupation horizons. We constrain occupations of the site between 248 and 65 thousand years ago. This presents the first direct palaeoecological evidence for landscapes occupied by South Asian Acheulean-producing populations, most notably in the main occupation horizon dating to 177 thousand years ago. Our results illustrate the potential role of the Thar Desert as an ecological, and demographic, frontier to Palaeolithic populations.

Secular and orbital-scale variability of equatorial Indian Ocean summer monsoon winds during the late Miocene

In the modern northern Indian Ocean, biological productivity is intimately linked to near-surface oceanographic dynamics forced by the South Asian, or Indian, monsoon. In the late Pleistocene, this strong seasonal signal is transferred to the sedimentary record as strong variance in the precession band (19–23 kyr) because precession dominates low-latitude insolation variations and drives seasonal contrast in oceanographic conditions. In addition, internal climate system feedbacks (e.g. ice-sheet albedo, carbon cycle, topography) play a key role in monsoon variability. Little is known about orbital-scale variability of the monsoon in the pre-Pleistocene, when atmospheric CO2 levels and global temperatures were higher. In addition, many questions remain open regarding the timing of the initiation and intensification of the South Asian monsoon during the Miocene, an interval of significant global climate change that culminated in bipolar glaciation. Here, we present new high-resolution (< 1 kyr) records of export productivity and sediment accumulation from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1443 in the southernmost Bay of Bengal spanning the late Miocene and earliest Pliocene (9 to 5 million years ago). Underpinned by a new orbitally-tuned benthic isotope stratigraphy, we use X-Ray Fluorescence-derived biogenic barium variations to discern productivity trends and rhythms. Our data show strong eccentricity-modulated precession-band productivity variations throughout the late Miocene, interpreted to reflect insolation forcing of summer monsoon wind strength in the equatorial Indian Ocean. On long timescales, our data support the interpretation that South Asian monsoon winds were already established by 9 Ma, with no apparent intensification over the late Miocene.

The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene

Previous studies based on multiple paleoclimate archives suggested a prominent intensification of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) during the mid-Holocene (MH, ∼6000 years before present). The main forcing that contributed to this intensification is related to changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. Nonetheless, other key factors likely played important roles, including remote changes in vegetation cover and airborne dust emission. In particular, northern Africa also experienced much wetter conditions and a more mesic landscape than today during the MH (the so-called African Humid Period), leading to a large decrease in airborne dust globally. However, most modeling studies investigating the SAM changes during the Holocene overlooked the potential impacts of the vegetation and dust emission changes that took place over northern Africa. Here, we use a set of simulations for the MH climate, in which vegetation over the Sahara and reduced dust concentrations are considered. Our results show that SAM rainfall is strongly affected by Saharan vegetation and dust concentrations, with a large increase in particular over northwestern India and a lengthening of the monsoon season. We propose that this remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.

Recent dust variability over South Asia controlled by North Atlantic SST anomalies

&lt;p&gt;Several studies have associated high dust years over South Asia to warming of the central or eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (El Nino conditions) and the resulting weakening of the summer monsoon. Using satellite aerosol data for 2001-2018, we show that there has been a departure from this relation since the second decade of the 21st century with the North Atlantic Ocean emerging as a major driver of interannual variability of dust over South Asia. This change in relation coincides with the end of the global warming hiatus and a shift towards persistent positive phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Positive phase of the NAO induces cold phase of the spring/summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) tripole pattern. We show here that high dust activity during 2011-2018 is associated with positive SST anomaly over the mid-latitude North Atlantic and negative SST anomaly over the sub-tropical North Atlantic: the two southern arms of the SST tripole pattern. Interestingly, the relation between NAO and these two southern arms of the SST tripole has undergone changes in recent years, which has impacted the South Asian monsoon. The result is general drying over South Asia and an increase in the strength of the dust-carrying northwesterlies. Simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) shows that SST tripole-like anomalies recorded during 2011-2018 over the North Atlantic can generate mid-latitude wave train that weakens the South Asian monsoon circulation, leads to surface high pressure anomalies and increase in dust emission and transport over northwest India and Pakistan. Most of the increase in the dust load can be attributed to enhanced transport at 800 hPa pressure level during May-June, which can lead to ~40-50% increase in dust concentrations at this level.&lt;/p&gt;