Global Warming Potential (GWP) for Methane: Monte Carlo Analysis of the Uncertainties in Global Tropospheric Model Predictions

Estimates of the global warming potential (GWP) of methane rely on the predictions from global chemistry-transport models. These models employ many uncertain input parameters representing the sources and sinks for methane and those for the tropospheric ozone, which is formed as a by-product of the methane sink process. Five thousand quasi-randomly Monte Carlo sampled model runs employing a zonally averaged global model were completed, each with a base case and a pulse case that differed from the base case only in having an additional 149 Tg (1Tg = 109 kg) emission pulse of methane. Each of the five thousand pulse case experiments had a small excess of methane that decayed away throughout the twenty-year model experiment. The radiative forcing consequences of this excess methane, and the excess tropospheric ozone formed from it, were integrated over a 100-year time horizon. The GWP was calculated in each of the five thousand model experiments from the sum of the radiative forcing consequences of methane and tropospheric ozone, by expressing them relative to the radiative forcing consequences of an identical emission pulse of carbon dioxide. The 2-sigma confidence range surrounding the methane atmospheric lifetime estimated in the Monte Carlo analysis was considerably wider than that derived from observations, suggesting that some of the input parameter combinations may have been unrealistic. The rejection of the unrealistic Monte Carlo replicates increased the mean methane GWP and narrowed its 2-sigma confidence interval to 37 ± 10 over a 100-year time horizon for emission pulses of the order of 1 Tg. Multiple linear regression was used to attribute the uncertainty in the output GWPs to each of the 183 uncertain input parameters, which represented emission source sectors, chemical kinetic rate coefficients, dry deposition velocities and biases in temperature and water vapour concentrations. Overall, the only significant contributions to the uncertainty in the methane GWP came from the chemical kinetic parameters representing the CH4 + OH, CH3O2 + HO2, CH3O2 + NO and the terpene + O3 reaction rate coefficients.

Technique of Informative Features Selection in Geoacoustic Emission Signals

Studies of geoacoustic emission in a seismically active region in Kamchatka show that geoacoustic signals produce pronounced pulse anomalies during the earthquake preparation and post-seismic relaxation of the local stresses field at the observation point. The qualitative selection of such anomalies is complicated by a strong distortion and weakening of the signal amplitude. A review of existing acoustic emission analysis methods shows that most often researchers turn to the analysis of more accessible to study statistical properties and energy of signals. The distinctive features of the approach proposed by the authors are the extraction of informative features based on the analysis of time and frequency-time structures of geoacoustic signals and the description of various forms of recognizable pulses by a limited pattern set. This study opens up new ideas to develop methods for detecting anomalous behavior of geoacoustic signals, including anomalies before earthquakes. The paper describes a technique of information extraction from geoacoustic emission pulse streams of sound frequency range. A geoacoustic pulse mathematical model, reflecting the signal generation process from a variety of elementary sources, is presented. A solution to the problem of detection of geoacoustic signal informative features is presented by the means of description of signal fragments by the matrixes of local extrema amplitude ratios and of interval ratios between them. The result of applying the developed algorithm to describe automatically the structure of the detected pulses and to form a pattern set is shown. The patterns characterize the features of geoacoustic emission signals observed at IKIR FEB RAS field stations. A technique of reduction of the detected pulse set dimensions is presented. It allows us to find patterns similar in structure. A solution to the problem of processing of a large data flow by unifying pulses description and their systematization is proposed. A method to identify a geoacoustic emission pulse model using sparse approximation schemes is suggested. An algorithmic solution of the problem of reducing the computational complexity of the matching pursuit method is described. It is to include an iterative refinement algorithm for the solution at each step in the method. The results of the research allowed the authors to create a tool to investigate the dynamic properties of geoacoustic emission signal in order to develop earthquake prediction detectors.

From the earliest pulses to the latest flares in long gamma-ray bursts

The prompt emission of gamma-ray bursts extends from the early pulses observed in γ-rays (>15 keV) to very late flares of X-ray photons (0.3–10 keV). The duration of prompt γ-ray pulses is rather constant, while the width of X-ray flares correlates with their peak time, suggesting a possibly different origin. However, pulses and flares have similar spectral properties. Considering internal and external shock scenarios, we derive how the energy and duration of pulses scale with their time of occurrence, and we compare this with observations. The absence of an observed correlation between the prompt emission pulse duration and its time of occurrence favours an “internal” origin and confirms earlier results. We show that the energetic and temporal properties of X-ray flares are also consistent with being produced by internal shocks between slow fireballs with a small contrast between their bulk Lorentz factors. These results relax the requirement of a long-lasting central engine to explain the latest X-ray flares.

The truncated amplified spontaneous emission pulses in KrF excimer laser by using timeshare quenching

In order to achieve the truncated amplified spontaneous emission pulse, the method of timeshare quenching was proposed in this paper. When the original pulse of the amplified spontaneous emission is 16.72 ns, the obtained best results show that the pulse width is truncated to 2.48 ns, and the shortening ratio is approximately 6.7. By analyzing the 12 acquisition results of the continuous amplified spontaneous emission truncation, 2.59 ± 0.05 ns amplified spontaneous emission pulse was obtained. The experimental results showed that the stability of the truncated pulse width is well. This method is applicable to truncate the ASE pulse in KrF excimer laser. It is significantly to the research of the inertial confinement fusion.

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response time scales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt C emission pulse, 24 ± 10% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 60 ± 18% and the land the remainder. The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.19 ± 0.10 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 times its radiative efficiency, is 92.7 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (70 to 115) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15%. The integrated CO2 response is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.