Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000

After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.

Gender-Atypical Occupations and Instability of Intimate Unions: Examining the Relationship and Mechanisms

Although social scientists have long been interested in the effects of occupational gender composition on workers, previous research has rarely examined how working in a gender-atypical occupation affects people’s private lives. This study draws on 17 rounds of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to investigate how individuals in occupations with varying gender ratios differ in the stability of their intimate unions. The authors also consider various mechanisms that may explain the link between working in a gender-atypical occupation and union instability. Results from random-effects event-history models show that both men and women in gender-atypical occupations experience faster paces of union dissolution than their counterparts in gender-balanced or gender-typical occupations. Female-dominant occupations’ lower pay accounts for a modest portion of the effect of working in female-typed occupations on men’s union instability. By contrast, the more irregular work schedules of male-typed occupations explain a substantial part of why women in such occupations have lower union stability. The remaining associations between occupational gender composition and union instability, we suggest, reflect the tendency for men and women in gender-atypical occupations to undergo greater psychological strain, which in turn increases the difficulty of maintaining intimate relationships.

Unemployment and separation: Evidence from five European countries

Since the 1970s, several European countries have experienced high union dissolution risk as well as high unemployment rates. The extent to which adverse economic conditions are associated with union instability is still unknown. This study explores the relationship between both individual and aggregate unemployment and union dissolution risk in five European countries before the recent economic crisis. Using rich longitudinal data from Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, and Italy, the empirical analysis, based on discrete-time event history models, shows that male unemployment consistently increases the risk of union dissolution. While a strong association is observed between male unemployment and separation at the micro level, no association is found between male unemployment and union dissolution at the macro level. The results for female unemployment are mixed, and the size of the impact of female unemployment is smaller in magnitude than that of male unemployment. In Germany and Italy, where until very recently work is less compatible with family life than in other countries, female unemployment is not significantly associated with union dissolution.

Children’s Adjustment to Parents’ Breakup: The Mediational Effects of Parenting and Coparenting

Although past studies have shown an association between union instability (i.e., change in family structure) and children’s aggressive behaviors, the mechanism by which this occurs is less understood. This study ( N = 3,387) examined whether father and mother involvement, coparenting support, and maternal responsiveness explained the association between union instability in early life and children’s aggressive behaviors at 9 years, and whether relationship status moderated this association. Findings reveal that only coparenting support mediated this association and only for children whose mothers divorced (not for mothers who experienced a nonmarital separation), suggesting that when a divorce occurs, the relationship between partners (coparenting) is more important than the relationship with children (parenting) for children’s social adjustment.