Excess mortality in India from June 2020 to June 2021 during the COVID pandemic: death registration, health facility deaths, and survey data

Background: India's official death totals from the COVID pandemic are widely regarded as under-reports. Methods: We quantified all-cause excess mortality in India, comparing deaths during the peak of the first and second COVID waves (Jul-Dec 2020 and April-June 2021) with month wise deaths in 2015-19 from three sources: Civil Registration System (CRS) mortality reports from 15 states or cities with 37% of India's population; deaths in 0.2 million health facilities; and a representative survey of 0.14 million adults about COVID deaths. Results: During the first viral wave, the median excess mortality compared to CRS baseline was 22% and 41%, respectively, in included states and cities, rising to 46% and 85% during the second wave. In settings with 10 or more months of data across the two waves, the median excess mortality was 32% and 37% for states and cities, respectively. Deaths in health facilities showed a 27% excess mortality from July 2020-May 2021, reaching 120% during April-May 2021. The national survey found 3.5% of adults reported a COVID death in their household in April-June 2021, approximately doubling the 3.2% expected overall deaths. The national survey showed 29-32% excess deaths from June 1, 2020 to June 27, 2021, most of which were likely to be COVID. This translates to 3.1-3.4 million COVID deaths (including 2.5-2.8 million during April-June 2021). National extrapolations from health facility and CRS data suggest 2.7-3.3 million deaths during the year. Conclusions: India's COVID death rate may be about 7-8 times higher than the officially reported 290/million population.

The scale of Gujarat’s mortality crisis

Analysis of excess deaths from the civil registration system spotlights the systematic obfuscation in official statements

Application of verbal autopsy in routine civil registration in Lusaka District of Zambia

Background Ascertaining the causes for deaths occurring outside health facilities is a significant problem in many developing countries where civil registration systems are not well developed or non-functional. Standardized and rigorous verbal autopsy methods is a potential solution to determine the cause of death. We conducted a demonstration project in Lusaka District of Zambia where verbal autopsy (VA) method was implemented in routine civil registration system. Methods About 3400 VA interviews were conducted for bodies “brought-in-dead” at Lusaka’s two major teaching hospital mortuaries using a SmartVA questionnaire between October 2017 and September 2018. Probable underlying causes of deaths using VA and cause-specific mortality fractions were determined.. Demographic characteristics were analyzed for each VA-ascertained cause of death. Results Opportunistic infections (OIs) associated with HIV/AIDS such as pneumonia and tuberculosis, and malaria were among leading causes of deaths among bodies “brought-in-dead”. Over 21.6 and 26.9% of deaths were attributable to external causes and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), respectively. The VA-ascertained causes of death varied by age-group and sex. External causes were more prevalent among males in middle ages (put an age range like 30–54 years old) and NCDs highly prevalent among those aged 55 years and older. Conclusions VA application in civil registration system can provide the much-needed cause of death information for non-facility deaths in countries with under-developed or non-functional civil registration systems.

Ascertaining Cause of non-Facility Deaths and Associated Demographic Characteristics: An Application of Verbal Autopsy in Routine Civil Registration in Lusaka District of Zambia

BACKGROUND: Ascertaining the cause for deaths occurring outside health facilities is a significant problem in many developing countries where civil registration systems are poor or non-functional. Standardized and rigorous verbal autopsy methods is a potential solution determine the cause of death. We conducted a demonstration project in Lusaka District of Zambia where verbal autopsy (VA) method was implemented in routine civil registration system. METHODS: About 3400 VA interviews were conducted for the “brought-in-dead” cases at Lusaka’s two major hospital mortuaries using a SmartVA questionnaire between October 2017 and September 2018. Probable underlying causes of deaths using VA and cause-specific mortality fractions were determined for each cause. Demographic characteristics associated with each cause were analyzed. RESULTS: Opportunistic infections associated with HIV/AIDS such as pneumonia, tuberculosis and malaria were among leading causes of deaths among cases of “brought-in-dead”. Over 21% and 27% of deaths were attributable to external causes and non-communicable diseases, respectively. The VA-ascertained causes of death varied by age-group and sex. External causes were more prevalent among males in middle ages (put an age range like 30-54 years old) and NCDs highly prevalent among those aged 55 years and older CONCLUSIONS: VA application in civil registration system can provide the much needed cause of death information for non-facility deaths in countries with poor civil registration system.

Underreporting of the 5-year tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis and polio booster vaccination in the Danish Vaccination Register

Background In Denmark, vaccination coverage is measured using the Danish Vaccination Register (DDV). In general, the vaccination coverage is high, but for some vaccinations, the coverage is suboptimal with geographical variation. This study aims to validate the vaccination coverage of the 5-year booster and identify overall reasons for non-vaccination in Copenhagen. Methods We validated the coverage of the 5-year tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis and polio booster for children born in 2010 and living in Copenhagen municipality in 2018, an area with low coverage (current estimate: 89%). We identified all children born in 2010 in the Civil Registration System and sent an electronic questionnaire to parents of children without a record of the 5-year booster in the DDV. Results Parents of 692 children were contacted and 49% participated. Of those, 186 (55%) reported that the child was vaccinated: 61% by their general practitioner and 34% abroad. The most common reason for non-vaccination was forgetfulness (31%), 26% did not want their child vaccinated and 17% had migrated from abroad and were not aware of the vaccination schedule. Considering only children with documentation for the vaccination, the corrected vaccination coverage was 91%. Conclusions We conclude that the coverage of the 5-year booster in Copenhagen is currently underestimated and should be adjusted by 2%. We recommend increased awareness from general practitioners and tailored communication about the vaccination programme targeting immigrants in Denmark.

The civil registration system is a potentially viable data source for reliable subnational mortality measurement in India

IntroductionThe Indian national Civil Registration System (CRS) is the optimal data source for subnational mortality measurement, but is yet under development. As an alternative, data from the Sample Registration System (SRS), which covers less than 1% of the national population, is used. This article presents a comparison of mortality measures from the SRS and CRS in 2017, and explores the potential of the CRS to meet these subnational data needs.MethodsData on population and deaths by age and sex for 2017 from each source were used to compute national-level and state-level life tables. Sex-specific ratios of death probabilities in five age categories (0–4, 5–14, 15–29, 30–69, 70–84) were used to evaluate CRS data completeness using SRS probabilities as reference values. The quality of medically certified causes of death was assessed through hospital reporting coverage and proportions of deaths registered with ill-defined causes from each state.ResultsThe CRS operates through an extensive infrastructure with high reporting coverage, but child deaths are uniformly under-reported, as are female deaths in many states. However, at ages 30–69 years, CRS death probabilities are higher than the SRS values in 15 states for males and 10 states for females. SRS death probabilities are of limited precision for measuring mortality trends and differentials. Data on medically certified causes of death are of limited use due to low hospital reporting coverage.ConclusionsThe Indian CRS is more reliable than the SRS for measuring adult mortality in several states. Targeted initiatives to improve the recording of child and female deaths, to strengthen the reporting and quality of medically certified causes of death, and to promote use of verbal autopsy methods can establish the CRS as a reliable source of subnational mortality statistics in the near future.

Does Class Proportion of Students with Non-Western Origin in High Schools Affect Drinking Habits Among Ethnic Danish Students?

Aim the objective was to test the hypothesis that a higher proportion of students with non-Western origin in high school classes is associated with lower and less frequent alcohol consumption among ethnic Danish students. Method data on country of origin was obtained from the Danish Civil Registration System, while information on drinking habits were derived from the Danish National Youth Study 2014. Multilevel zero-inflated binominal regression was used to assess the association between class proportion of students with non-Western origin and odds of non-drinking and mean weekly alcohol consumption, while multilevel logistic regression was used to assess the association with frequent binge drinking. Results a higher proportion of students with non-Western origin in class was associated with higher odds of non-drinking among ethnic Danish student in the same class. For example, ethnic Danish boys in classes with more than 15% of the students of non-Western origin had 77% higher odds of being non-drinkers, compared to ethnic Danish boys in classes where 0–5% had non-Western origin (OR: 1.77, 95% CI; 1.42–2.20). Among ethnic Danish students that did consume alcohol, class proportion of students with non-Western origin was not associated with weekly alcohol consumption, while a higher proportion of students with non-Western origin in class was associated with lower odds of frequent binge drinking. Conclusion the downward drinking trend among adolescents in Western countries may be partly explained by the higher proportion of youth with non-Western origin, influencing the prevalence of drinking and frequency of binge drinking among adolescents in the ethnic majority population.

India’s Civil Registration System: a potentially viable data source for reliable subnational mortality measurement

ABSTRACTIntroductionThe Indian national Civil Registration System (CRS) is the optimal data source for mortality measurement, but is yet under development. As an alternative, data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) which covers less than 1% of the national population is used. This article presents a comparative analysis of mortality measures from the SRS and CRS in 2017, and explores the potential of the CRS to meet these subnational data needs.MethodsData on population and deaths by age and sex for 2017 from each source were used to compute national and state level life tables. Sex specific ratios of death probabilities in five age categories (0-4, 5-14, 15-29, 30-69, 70 -84, 85+) were used to evaluate CRS data completeness, using SRS probabilities as reference values. The quality of medically certified causes of death was assessed through hospital reporting coverage and proportions of deaths registered with ill-defined causes from each state.ResultsThe CRS operates through an extensive infrastructure with high reporting coverage, but child deaths are uniformly under reported, as well as female deaths in some states. However, at ages 30 to 69 years, CRS death probabilities are higher than the SRS values in 15 states in males and 10 states in females. SRS death probabilities are of limited precision for measuring mortality trends and differentials. Medical certification of cause of death is affected by low hospital reporting coverage.ConclusionsThe Indian CRS is more reliable than the SRS for measuring adult mortality in several states. Targeted initiatives to improve the recording of child and female deaths, to strengthen the quality of medical certification of cause of death, and to promote use of verbal autopsy methods are necessary to establish the CRS as a reliable source of sub national mortality statistics in the near future.KEY MESSAGESThe Sample Registration System (SRS) is currently the main source of mortality statistics in India, since the Civil Registration System (CRS) is yet under developmentLimitations in sample size as well as problems with quality of causes of death result in considerable uncertainty in population level mortality estimates from the SRSThis research evaluated the quality of the sex and age specific mortality risks from the CRS, using the SRS values in each state as reference valuesThe CRS has high levels of reporting coverage for death registration, and also measures higher levels of mortality at ages 30 to 69 years in several states, with high precisionInterventions are required to improve child death registration, strengthen medical certification of cause of death in hospitals, and introduce verbal autopsy for home deathsThese interventions will establish the CRS as a routine and reliable source for national and subnational mortality measurement in India in the near future

Economic analysis of producing vital statistics using civil registration data in Lao People’s Democratic Republic

The government of Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) is currently in the preparation stage of a 5-year project that will establish an electronic civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system. The authors of this paper adapted a framework for economic analysis developed by Jimenez-Soto et al. (Jimenez-Soto et al., PLoS ONE 9(8): e106234, 2014) to assess the cost-effectiveness of producing vital statistics in Lao PDR using data from a complete electronic CRVS system, compared to using data from other sources, such as the 2015 Population and Housing Census and the 2017 Lao Social Indicator Survey (LSIS). Of 20 types of vital statistics (including birth statistics, fertility rates, and death statistics), a complete and accurate CRVS system can produce all 20 of these vital statistics, while the 2015 Census can produce 17, and the 2017 LSIS and the current civil registration system can produce 4 each. A cost-effectiveness analysis of different data sources for producing vital statistics over a 20-year projection showed that a complete and accurate CRVS system ranked best, followed by population census and population-based survey. In addition to enabling vital statistics to be produced cost-effectively, a robust civil registration system would also support improving the efficiency of public service delivery, leading to further cost savings for the country.