Simulation of Density and Flow Dynamics in a Lagoon Aquifer Environment and Implications for Nutrient Delivery From Land to Sea

The near coastal zone, hosting the saltwater-freshwater interface, is an important zone that nutrients from terrestrial freshwaters have to pass to reach marine environments. This zone functions as a highly reactive biogeochemical reactor, for which nutrient cycling and budget is controlled by the water circulation within and across that interface. This study addresses the seasonal variation in water circulation, salinity pattern and the temporal seawater-freshwater exchange dynamics at the saltwater-wedge. This is achieved by linking geophysical exploration and numerical modeling to hydrochemical and hydraulic head observations from a lagoon site at the west coast of Denmark. The hydrochemical data from earlier studies suggests that increased inland recharge during winter drives a saltwater-wedge regression (seaward movement) whereas low recharge during summer causes a wedge transgression. Transient variable density model simulations reproduce only the hydraulic head dynamics in response to recharge dynamics, while the salinity distribution across the saltwater wedge cannot be reproduced with accuracy. A dynamic wedge is only simulated in the shallow part of the aquifer (<5 m), while the deeper parts are rather unaffected by fluctuations in freshwater inputs. Fluctuating salinity concentrations in the lagoon cause the development of a temporary intertidal salinity cell. This leads to a reversed density pattern in the underlying aquifer and the development of a freshwater containing discharge tube, which is confined by an overlying and underlying zone of saltwater. This process can explain observed trends in the in-situ data, despite an offset in absolute concentrations. Geophysical data indicates the presence of a deeper low hydraulic conductive unit, which coincides with the stagnant parts of the simulated saltwater-wedge. Thus, exchange fluxes refreshing the deeper low permeable areas are reduced. Consequently, this study suggests a very significant seasonal water circulation within the coastal aquifer near the seawater-freshwater interface, which is governed by the hydrogeological setting and the incoming freshwater fluxes, where nutrient delivery is limited to a small corridor of the shallow part of the aquifer.

North Atlantic freshwater events influence European weather in subsequent summers

Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying dynamical mechanisms remain elusive, however. Here, we demonstrate a novel mechanism linking freshwater releases into the North Atlantic with summer weather in Europe. Combining remote sensing, atmospheric reanalyses and model simulations, we show that freshwater events in summer trigger progressively sharper sea surface temperature gradients in subsequent winters, destabilising the overlying atmosphere and inducing a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current. In turn, the jet stream over the North Atlantic is deflected northward in the following summers, leading to warmer and drier weather over Europe. Our results suggest that growing Arctic freshwater fluxes will increase the risk of heat waves and droughts over the coming decades, and could yield enhanced predictability of European summer weather, months to years in advance.

Subpolar Southern Ocean Response to Changes in the Surface Momentum, Heat, and Freshwater Fluxes under 2xCO2

The Antarctic subpolar Southern Ocean (sSO) has fundamental climate importance. Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) originates in the sSO and supplies the lower limb of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), occupying 36% of ocean volume. Climate models struggle to represent continental shelf processes that form AABW. We explore sources of persistent model biases by examining response of the sSO to perturbations in surface forcing in a global ocean–sea ice model (ACCESS-OM2) that forms AABW both on shelf and in open ocean. The sSO response to individual and combined perturbations of surface heat, freshwater, and momentum fluxes follows the WCRP CMIP6 FAFMIP-protocol. Wind perturbation (i.e., a poleward shift and intensification of the westerlies) is dominant, enhancing AABW formation and accelerating the global MOC. This occurs through upwelling of warm waters and inhibition of sea ice growth during winter, which triggers large open water polynya (OWP) events with associated deep convection. These events occur in the Weddell and Ross Seas and their variability is associated with availability of heat at midocean depths. These OWPs cease when the heat reservoir is depleted. Effects of surface warming and freshening only partially compensate changes from increasing winds on ocean stratification and depletion of AABW formation. These results indicate that overly convective models, such ACCESS-OM2, can respond to CO2-perturbed scenarios by forming too much AABW in OWP, which might not hold in models without OWPs. This might contribute to the large intermodel spread thermosteric sea level projections, being relevant to the interpretation of future projections by current climate models.

Contribution of buoyancy fluxes to tropical Pacific sea level variability

Regional anomalies of steric sea level are either due to redistribution of heat and freshwater anomalies or due to ocean–atmosphere buoyancy fluxes. Interannual to decadal variability in sea level across the tropical Pacific is mainly due to steric variations driven by wind stress anomalies. The importance of air–sea buoyancy fluxes is less clear. We use a global, eddy-permitting ocean model and a series of sensitivity experiments with quasi-climatological momentum and buoyancy fluxes to identify the contribution of buoyancy fluxes for interannual to decadal sea level variability in the tropical Pacific. We find their contribution on interannual timescales to be strongest in the central tropical Pacific at around a 10∘ latitude in both hemispheres and also relevant in the very east of the tropical domain. Buoyancy-flux-forced anomalies are correlated with variations driven by wind stress changes, but their effect on the prevailing anomalies and the importance of heat and freshwater fluxes vary locally. In the eastern tropical basin, interannual sea level variability is amplified by anomalous heat fluxes, while the importance of freshwater fluxes is small, and neither has any impact on decadal timescales. In the western tropical Pacific, the variability on interannual and decadal timescales is dampened by both heat and freshwater fluxes. The mechanism involves westward-propagating Rossby waves that are triggered during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by anomalous buoyancy fluxes in the central tropical Pacific and counteract the prevailing sea level anomalies once they reach the western part of the basin.

Identifying the Mechanisms of DO-scale Oscillations in a Gcm: a Salt Oscillator Triggered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet

The driver mechanisms of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events remain uncertain, in part because many climate models do not show similar oscillatory behaviour. Here we present results from glacial simulations of the HadCM3B coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model that show stochastic, quasi-periodical DO-scale variability. This variability is driven by variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in response to North Atlantic salinity fluctuations. The mechanism represents a salt oscillator driven by the salinity gradient between the subtropical gyre and the Northern North Atlantic. Utilising a full set of model salinity diagnostics, we identify a complex ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice feedback mechanism that maintains this oscillator, driven by the interplay between surface freshwater fluxes (tropical P-E balance and sea-ice), advection, and convection. The key trigger is the extent of the Laurentide ice sheet, which alters atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns, highlighting the sensitivity of the climate system to land-ice extent. This, in addition to the background climate state, pushes the climate beyond a tipping point and into an oscillatory mode on a timescale comparable to the DO events.

Solar forcing of early Holocene droughts on the Yucatán peninsula

A speleothem record from the north-eastern Yucatán peninsula (Mexico) provides new insights into the tropical hydro-climate of the Americas between 11,040 and 9520 a BP on up to sub-decadal scale. Despite the complex atmospheric reorganization during the end of the last deglaciation, the dominant internal leading modes of precipitation variability during the late Holocene were also active during the time of record. While multi-decadal variations were not persistent, Mesoamerican precipitation was dominated by changes on the decadal- and centennial scale, which may be attributed to ENSO activity driven by solar forcing. Freshwater fluxes from the remnant Laurentide ice sheet into the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic have additionally modulated the regional evaporation/precipitation balance. In particular, this study underlines the importance of solar activity on tropical and subtropical climate variability through forcing of the tropical Pacific, providing a plausible scenario for observed recurrent droughts on the decadal scale throughout the Holocene.

Solar Forcing of Early Holocene Droughts on the Yucatán Peninsula

A speleothem record from the north-eastern Yucatán peninsula (Mexico) provides new insights into the tropical hydro-climate of the Americas between 11,040 and 9,520 a BP on up to sub-decadal scale. Despite the complex atmospheric reorganization during the end of the last deglaciation, the dominant internal leading modes of precipitation variability during the late Holocene were also active during the time of record. While multi-decadal variations were not persistent, decadal- and centennial-scale ENSO activity driven by solar forcing dominated Mesoamerican precipitation variability. Freshwater fluxes from the remnant Laurentide ice sheet into the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic have additionally modulated the regional evaporation/precipitation balance. In particular, this study underlines the importance of solar activity on tropical and subtropical climate variability through forcing of the tropical Pacific, providing a plausible scenario for observed recurrent droughts on the decadal scale throughout the Holocene.

Internal salt content: a useful framework for understanding the oceanic branch of the water cycle

The global water cycle is dominated by an atmospheric branch which transfers fresh water away from subtropical regions and an oceanic branch which returns that fresh water from subpolar and tropical regions. Salt content is commonly used to understand the oceanic branch because surface freshwater fluxes leave an imprint on ocean salinity. However, freshwater fluxes do not actually change the amount of salt in the ocean and – in the mean – no salt is transported meridionally by ocean circulation. To study the processes which determine ocean salinity we introduce a new variable: “internal salt” and its counterpart “internal fresh water”. Precise budgets for internal salt in salinity coordinates relate meridional and diahaline transport to surface freshwater forcing, ocean circulation and mixing, and reveal the pathway of fresh water in the ocean. We apply this framework to a 1° global ocean model. We find that in order for fresh water to be exported from the ocean’s tropical and subpolar regions to the subtropics, salt must be mixed across the salinity surfaces that bound those regions. In the tropics, this mixing is achieved by parameterized vertical mixing, along-isopycnal mixing, and numerical mixing associated with truncation errors in the model’s advection scheme, while along-isopycnal mixing dominates at high latitudes. We analyze the internal freshwater budgets of the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins and identify the transport pathways between them which redistribute fresh water added through precipitation, balancing asymmetries in freshwater forcing between the basins.

Seasonal evolution and salt/freshwater fluxes of first-year sea ice: Comparison between pack ice and landfast sea ice

<p>Sea ice affects the exchange of energy and matter between the atmosphere and the ocean from local to hemispheric scales. Salt fluxes across the ice-ocean interface that drive thermohaline mixing beneath growing sea ice are important elements of upper ocean nutrient and carbon exchange. Sea-ice melt releases freshwater into the upper ocean and results in formation of melt ponds that affect gas and energy transfer across the atmosphere-ice interface. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provided an opportunity to follow sea-ice evolution and exchange processes over a full seasonal cycle in a rapidly changing ice cover. To this end, approximately 25 sea-ice cores were collected at 2 distinct sites, representing first-year and multi-year ice, to monitor physical, biological and geochemical processes relevant to atmosphere-ice-ocean exchange processes. Here we compare the growth and decay of first-year ice in the Central Arctic during the winter 2019-2020 to that of landfast first-year ice at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, from 1998 to 2016. Ice stratigraphy was similar at both sites with about 15 cm of granular ice on top of columnar ice, with a comparable growth history with a similar maximum ice thickness of 1.6-1.7 m. We aggregated the sea-ice bulk salinity and temperature profiles using a degree-day approach, and examined brine and freshwater fluxes at lower and upper interfaces of the ice, respectively. Preliminary results show lower sea-ice bulk salinity during the growth season and greater desalination at the ice surface during the melt season at the MOSAiC floe in comparison to Utqiaġvik.</p>

Recent trends in air-sea CO2 fluxes and ocean acidification in the Arabian Sea

<p>Recent observations and modeling evidence indicate that the Arabian Sea (AS) is a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. Yet, the interannual variability modulating the air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes in the region, as well as their long-term trends, remain poorly known. Furthermore, while the rising atmospheric concentration of CO<sub>2</sub> is causing surface ocean pH to drop globally, little is known about local and regional acidification trends in the AS, a region hosting a major coastal upwelling system naturally prone to relatively low surface pH. Here, we simulate the evolution of air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes and reconstruct the progression of ocean acidification in the AS from 1982 through 2019 using an eddy-resolving ocean biogeochemical model covering the full Indian Ocean and forced with observation-based winds and heat and freshwater fluxes. Additionally, using a set of sensitivity simulations that vary in terms of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels and physical forcing we quantify the variability of fluxes associated with both natural and anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> and disentangle the contributions of climate variability and that of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations to the long-term trends in air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes and acidification. Our analysis reveals a strong variability in the air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes and pH on a multitude of timescales ranging from the intra-seasonal to the decadal. Furthermore, a strong progression of ocean acidification with an important penetration into the thermocline is simulated locally near the upwelling regions. Our analysis also indicates that in addition to the increasing anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in the atmosphere, recent warming and monsoon wind changes have substantially modulated these trends regionally.</p>