A retrospective of the work of Patience Cowie: the interaction of faults in space and time and their influences on subsurface fluid flow, surface processes and earthquakes

<p>Patience Cowie was a truly outstanding scientist whose research spanned several disciplines of structural geology and tectonics. She made a lasting contribution to every discipline she published in and as well as academic advances, produced significant impacts in the hydrocarbon industry and earthquake hazard assessment. Her research in fault mechanics and fault population was a genuine game-changer. The implications of her work for predicting fault patterns and linkage have been crucial for the interpretation of 3D seismic data, and for examining the interplay between faults and the basins they bound and sediments they host. More recently she explored relationships between fault geometry, slip rate and recurrence intervals along seismically active faults, with important implications for earthquake hazard assessment.</p><p>Patience’s drive to constrain physical explanations of the underlying dynamics of Earth processes meant her numerical modelling was always firmly grounded in field observations. Her models incorporated the effects of stress in time and space as fault system evolved, but always underpinned by geometric and kinematic observations in the field. She loved fieldwork and her joy at the beauty of geological structures was infectious and inspiring.  </p>

Repeating earthquakes follow afterslip gradient in the aftermath of the 16th April 2016 M7.8 Pedernales earthquake in Ecuador

<p>Repeating earthquakes are earthquakes that repeatedly break a single, time-invariant fault patch. They are generally associated with aseismic slip, which is thought to load asperities, leading to repeated rupture. Repeating earthquakes are therefore useful tools to study aseismic slip and fault mechanics, with possible applications to earthquake triggering, loading rates and earthquake forecasting.</p><p>In this study, we analyze one year of aftershocks following the 16<sup>th</sup> April 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake in Ecuador to find repeating families, using data recorded by permanent and temporary seismological stations. In our area, seismicity during both the inter-seismic and post-seismic periods has been previously linked to aseismic slip. We calculate waveform cross-correlation coefficients (CC) on all available catalogue events, which we use to sort events into preliminary families, using a minimum CC of 0.95. These events were then stacked and used to perform template-matching on the continuous data. In total, 376 earthquakes were classified into 62 families of 4 to 15 earthquakes, including 8 from the one-year period before the mainshock. We later relocated these earthquakes using a double-difference method, which confirmed that most of them did have overlapping sources.</p><p>Repeating earthquakes seem to concentrate largely around the areas of largest afterslip release, where afterslip gradient is the highest. We also find an increase in the recurrence time of repeating events with time after the mainshock, over the first year of the postseismic period, which highlights a possible timeframe for the afterslip’s deceleration. Our results suggest that while most repeating aftershocks are linked to afterslip release, the afterslip gradient may play a bigger role in determining their location than previously thought.</p>

Patience Cowie and the Inception of Modern Fault Mechanics: A Recollection

<p>Patience Cowie’s PhD thesis, conducted with me at Lamont, resulted in three papers, published in 1992, that laid the groundwork for the modern era of fault mechanics studies. In the first paper<sup>1</sup> she reasoned that a cohesive zone model provided a plausible model of fault grown provided that the width of the cohesive zone scales linearly with fault length. In that case, the Griffith instability is avoided and faults grow self-similarly in quasistatic equilibrium. This model is consistent with the existence of faults of all sizes in which displacement scales linearly with length and the fault grows by the breakdown of a damage zone at the fault tip. In the second paper<sup>2</sup> she showed that the then existing data for fault displacement and length were consistent with linear scaling for faults rupturing rock of similar strength. In the third paper<sup>3</sup> she combined the earthquake slip/length scaling law with that fault scaling law to show how faults can grow by the accumulation of slip from earthquakes.</p><p>In the subsequent thirty years much more work has been done to expand on these themes pioneered by Patience. Here I share some memories of working with Patience in those formative years.</p><p> </p><p>1          Cowie, P. A. & Scholz, C. H. Physical explanation for the displacement-length relationship of faults using a post-yield fracture mechanics model. J.       Struct. Geol. <strong>14</strong>, 1133-1148 (1992).</p><p>2          Cowie, P. A. & Scholz, C. H. Displacement-length scaling relationship for faults: data synthesis and discussion. J. Struct. Geol. <strong>14</strong>, 1149-1156 (1992).</p><p>3          Cowie, P. A., and Scholz, C.H. Growth of faults by accumulation of seismic slip. J. Geophys. Res. <strong>97(B7)</strong>, 11085-11095 (1992b).</p>

Structural evolution of a crustal-scale seismogenic fault in a magmatic arc: The Bolfin Fault Zone (Atacama Fault System)

<p>The nucleation and evolution of major crustal-scale seismogenic faults in the crystalline basement as well as the process of strain localization represent a long-standing, but poorly understood, issue in structural geology and fault mechanics. Here, we addressed the spatio-temporal evolution of the Bolfin Fault Zone (BFZ), a >40-km-long exhumed seismogenic splay fault of the 1000-km-long strike-slip Atacama Fault System. The BFZ has a sinuous fault trace across the Mesozoic magmatic arc of the Coastal Cordillera (Northern Chile). Seismic faulting occurred at 5-7 km depth and ≤ 270 °C in a fluid-rich environment as recorded by extensive propylitic alteration and epidote-chlorite veining. The ancient (125-118 Ma) seismicity is attested by the widespread occurrence of pseudotachylytes both in the fault core and in the damage zone. Field geological surveys indicate nucleation of the BFZ on precursory geometrical anisotropies represented by magmatic foliation of plutons (northern and central segments) and andesitic dyke swarms (southern segment) within the heterogeneous crystalline basement. Faulting exploited the segments of precursory anisotropies that were favorably oriented with respect to the long-term stress field associated with the oblique ancient subduction. The large-scale sinuous geometry of the BFZ may result from linkage of these anisotropy-pinned segments during fault growth. This evolution may provide a model to explain the complex fault pattern of the crustal-scale Atacama Fault System.</p>

Longitudinal Ridges in Long Runout Landslides: on the Applicability of High-Speed Granular Flow Mechanisms.

<p>Long runout landslides are a particular type of mass-wasting phenomena that belongs to the category of surface processes associated with rapid strain rates. The reduction of friction that has to be invoked to explain their high velocities and exceptional travel distance over nearly horizontal surfaces has yet to find satisfactory explanation. Inspired by fault mechanics studies, thermally-activated mechanisms can explain the dynamic frictional strength loss during sliding along the initial failure surface and the early development of velocities higher than expected. However, as slides continue moving along nearly horizontal valley floors, the weakening mechanisms required to sustain their exceptional behaviour are less certain.</p><p>Long runout landslides are found ubiquitous in our solar system and the slow erosion rates that operate on extraterrestrial planetary bodies allow the preservation of their geomorphological record. The availability of the latest high-resolution imagery of the surface of Mars and the Moon allows to conduct detailed morphometric analysis not so granted on our planet. On the other hand, on Earth, the partial loss of the geomorphological record due to fast erosion rates is compensated by the accessibility of sites that enable us to conduct field work. In order to better understand the mechanisms responsible for the apparent friction weakening we use a comparative planetary geology approach, in the attempt to link the morphology and the internal structures of long runout landslide deposits to the mechanisms involved during the emplacement of such catastrophic events.</p><p>We focused on the distinctive longitudinal ridges that mark the surface of the landslide deposits. The formation mechanism of longitudinal ridges in long runout landslides has been proposed to require ice, as this low friction material would allow the spreading of the deposit, causing the development of longitudinal ridges by tensile deformation of the slide. However, ice-free laboratory experiments on rapid granular flows have demonstrated that longitudinal ridges can form as a consequence of helicoidal cells that generate from a mechanical instability, which onset requires a rough surface and a velocity threshold to be surpassed. Moreover, such experiments have showed that the wavelength of the longitudinal ridges is always 2 to 3 times the thickness of the flow.</p><p>We here present the results from three case studies: the 63-km-long Coprates Labe landslide in Valles Marineris on Mars; the 4-km-long El Magnifico landslide in Chile, Earth; and the 50-km-long Tsiolkovskiy crater landslide, at the far side of the Moon. We found that the wavelength of the longitudinal ridges is consistently 2 to 3 times the thickness of the landslide deposit, in agreement with experimental work on rapid granular flows. The recurrence of such scaling relationship suggests a scale- and environment-independent mechanism. We discuss the applicability of high-speed granular flow convection-style mechanisms to long runout landslides and speculate on the existence of an alternative vibration-assisted mechanism.</p>

Modelling of Seismicity in Southern Pakistan using GIS Techniques

This study was aimed to expound spatial association between tectonic earthquakes and individual faults in southern Pakistan. A population of fault lines are exposed to the onshore region located to the north of active Makran subduction zone and within Indus Basin where geophysical prospecting reported neotectonic deformation and faulting. A catalog of earthquakes has been compiled considering the seismic events originated from southern Pakistan and neighboring southeastern Iran, southern Afghanistan and frontal offshore areas. Since, the faulty blocks are extending beyond the international borders, a wide region was outlined for cataloging and thorough screening of fault lines. The catalog has been thoroughly processed by standard procedures necessary for magnitude coherency, main shocks decluttering, magnitude completeness and removal of spatially outlier events etc. GIS-based vectors of fault lines were abstracted by the digitization of regional tectonic lineaments and structural maps. A rigorous effort was made to review available literature to gather updated data of plate kinematics, GPS constraints, relative blocks movement across the faults and rate of fault mechanics (slip-sense) during major events. The weights of evidence method was used to judge the spatial associations between seismic events and populations of faults lines to ascribe ‘seismicity index’ which ranked the potential faults from I (least active level) to V (highly active level). The SI helped to compare each fault response e.g. seismicity yield, released seismic stresses collinear to the fault line, active or aseismic segments and probabilistic estimate for future sizeable earthquake. Kernel density maps were prepared to allure the vulnerable pockets of the elongated faults for specific magnitude windows. The spatial patterns of earthquakes in southern Pakistan were significant to study the seismogenic potential associated with the active tectonic lineaments and faulted blocks. Spatial analysis of data sets for seismic events suggest stronger spatial associations between earthquake epicenters and faults oriented N-S, and weaker spatial associations of epicenters with some -unknown faults in the plains of Indus Basin.

Factors controlling fracture distribution within a carbonate-hosted relay ramp: insights from the Tre Monti fault (Central Apennines)

<p>Fractures constitute the main pathway for fluids in fault damage zones hosted in low-porosity rocks. Understanding the factors controlling fracture distribution is hence fundamental to better assess fluids circulation in fault damage zones, with evident implications for fault mechanics, hydrogeology and hydrocarbon exploration. Being usually characterized by a strong damage and structural complexity, this is of particularly importance for relay zones.</p><p>We integrated classical and modern structural geology techniques to investigate the factors controlling fracture distribution within a portion of a relay ramp damage zone pertaining to the Tre Monti fault (Central Italy). The damage zone is hosted within peritidal carbonates and located at the footwall of the relay ramp front segment. We analysed the distribution of the fracture density in the outcrop through (1) scanlines measured in the field, (2) oriented rock samples, and (3) scan-areas performed on a virtual outcrop model obtained by aerial structure-from-motion.</p><p>Our results highlight structural and lithological control on fracture distribution. Scanlines and virtual scan-areas show that fracture density increases with the distance from the front segment of the relay ramp. Moreover, all the methods highlight that supratidal and intertidal carbonate facies exhibit higher fracture density than subtidal limestones.</p><p>This apparently anomalous trend of fracture density, that increases moving away from a main fault segment, has two main explanations. (1) The damage is associated with the relay ramp development: approaching the centre of the relay ramp (i.e., moving away from the front segment) an increase in the number of subsidiary faults with their associated damage zones promotes high fracture densities. (2) The increase in fracture density can be attributed to the increasing content in supratidal and intertidal carbonate facies that are more abundant in the centre of the relay ramp.</p><p>Our results provide important suggestions for factors controlling fracture distribution and fluid flow within relay ramps hosted by shallow water limestones. We show that the trend of fracture distribution with respect to a main fault is not easily predictable in presence of a relay ramp, because it can be modulated by the subsidiary faults formation and slip during the relay ramp development. Moreover, carbonate facies play a non-negligible role in fracture distribution within fault zones hosted in shallow-water carbonates.</p>

Improving the Co-seismic Slip Distributions of Synthetic Catalogs With Real Observations

<p>Subduction zones are the most seismically active regions on the globe and about 90% of historical events, including the largest ones with the magnitude M>9, occurred along these regions (Hayes et al., 2018). Most of these events were followed by devastating tsunamis with, in some cases, perhaps unexpected wave height distributions. Observation of events in the megathrust environment reveals that some earthquakes are characterized by slip concentration on the very shallow part of the subduction zone. This shallow slip phenomenon was repeatedly observed in the last two decades for both ordinary megathrust events (e.g. 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku) and tsunami earthquakes (2006 Java and 2010 Mentawai). Shallow ruptures feature depleted short–period energy release and very slow rupture velocity possibly due to the presence of (hydrated) sediments (Lay et al., 2011; Lay 2014; Polet and Kanamori, 2000). Associated long rupture durations have been explained with fault mechanics-related rigidity and stress drop variation with depth (Bilek and Lay, 1999) or, more recently, with lower rigidity of surrounding materials (Sallares and Ranero, 2019).</p><p>The characteristics of co-seismic slip distribution have an important impact on tsunami hazard. There are numerous methods that have been proposed to generate stochastic slip distributions, also including shallow slip amplification (Le Veque et al., 2016; Sepulveda et al., 2017; Scala et al., 2019). However, these models need to be calibrated against slip models estimated for real events.</p><p>Here, we investigate similarities and differences between the synthetic slip distributions provided by Scala et al. (2019) and a suite of 144 slip models of real events that occurred in different subduction zones (Ye et al.,2016). In particular, Scala et al. (2019) model features shallow slip amplification in single events, whose relative probabilities are balanced to restore cumulative slip homogeneity on the fault plane over multiple seismic cycles. This study also aims to improve and/or calibrate this model to account for the behavior observed from real events.</p>

Earthquake rupture properties and tsunamigenesis in the shallowest megathrust

<p>Seismological data provide compelling evidence of a depth-dependent rupture behavior of megathrust earthquakes. Relative to deeper events of similar magnitude, shallow earthquake ruptures have larger slip and longer duration, radiate energy that is depleted in high frequencies and have a larger discrepancy between their surface wave and moment magnitudes (M<sub>S</sub> and M<sub>W</sub>, respectively). These source properties make them prone to generating devastating tsunamis without clear warning signs. The origin of the observed differences has been a long-lasting matter of debate. Here we first show that the overall depth trends of all these observations can be explained by worldwide average variations of the elastic properties of the rock body overriding the megathrust fault, which deforms by dynamic stress transfer during co-seismic slip, and we discuss some general implications for tsunami hazard assessment. Second, we test this conceptual model for the particular case of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (M<sub>S</sub>7.2 and M<sub>W</sub>7.8). This event nucleated at ~20 km-deep but it appears to have released most of its seismic moment near the trench. This earthquake caused mild shaking and little damage, so that tsunami hazard based on human perception was underestimated and the destructive tsunami hit the coast unexpectedly. We use a set of 2D seismic data to map the P-wave seismic velocity above the inter-plate boundary, and we combine it with previously estimated moment release distribution to calculate slip and stress drop distributions and moment-rate spectra that are compatible with both the seismological and the geophysical data. The models confirm that slip concentrated in the shallow megathrust, with two patches of maximum slip exceeding 10-12 m in the near-trench zone that can explain the observed tsunami run-up, while the average stress drop is ~3 MPa. The low rigidity of the upper plate in the zone of maximum slip explains the high frequency depletion and the resulting M<sub>W</sub>-M<sub>S</sub> discrepancy without need to consider anomalous rupture properties or fault mechanics</p>