Less is more or more is more? Union dissolution and re-partnering as an engine for fertility in a demographic forerunner context – a register based completed cohort fertility approach

Extensive literature theorizes the role of re-partnering on cohort fertility and whether union dissolution can be an engine for fertility. A large share of higher-order unions is non-marital cohabitations. Yet, most previous completed cohort fertility studies on the topic analyze marital unions only and none have measured cohabitations using population-level data. We use Finnish register data to enumerate every birth, marriage, and cohabitation from ages 18-46 in the 1969–1972 birth cohorts, and analyze the relationship between the number of unions and cohort fertility for men and women using Poisson regression. We show that re-partnering is driven by cohabitations. Re-marriage is positively associated with cohort fertility, compared to individuals in a single intact marriage. However, when measured using marriages as well as non-marital cohabitations, re-partnering is negatively associated with fertility, compared to individuals in a single intact union. This negative association increases with socioeconomic status. “Serial cohabitation” is a strong predictor of low fertility. Men see a slight “re-marriage premium” in fertility and a (non-marital) “re-partnering penalty,” compared to women. Thus, re-partnering is likely not an efficient engine for fertility. Further, marriage and cohabitation are far from indistinguishable in a country often described as a second demographic transition forerunner.

What Tears Couples Apart: A Machine Learning Analysis of Union Dissolution in Germany

This study contributes to the literature on union dissolution by adopting a machine learning (ML) approach, specifically Random Survival Forests (RSF). We used RSF to analyze data on 2,038 married or cohabiting couples who participated in the German Socio-Economic Panel Survey, and found that RSF had considerably better predictive accuracy than conventional regression models. The man's and the woman's life satisfaction and the woman's percentage of housework were the most important predictors of union dissolution; several other variables (e.g., woman's working hours, being married) also showed substantial predictive power. RSF was able to detect complex patterns of association, and some predictors examined in previous studies showed marginal or null predictive power. Finally, while we found that some personality traits were strongly predictive of union dissolution, no interactions between those traits were evident, possibly reflecting assortative mating by personality traits. From a methodological point of view, the study demonstrates the potential benefits of ML techniques for the analysis of union dissolution and for demographic research in general. Key features of ML include the ability to handle a large number of predictors, the automatic detection of nonlinearities and nonadditivities between predictors and the outcome, generally superior predictive accuracy, and robustness against multicollinearity.

Variations in First Union Dissolution Patterns among the Lebou, Peuhl, Sereer, Toucouleur, and Wolof in Senegal

Major changes have been observed in recent decades both in the mode of union formation and in the stability of conjugal unions in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although these changes are known to vary in intensity across countries, variations across ethnical groups within countries are still not well studied. The present study investigates ethnic variations in the dissolution of first union in Senegal, focusing on five ethnic groups: Lebou, Peuhl, Sereer, Toucouleur and Wolof. It attempts to examine the specific effect of ethnicity and to identify underlying mechanisms of action of ethnic variations in union dissolution among men and women. The study uses data from a biographical survey on “vulnerabilities and chronic poverty” in Senegal (2008-2009) and event history analysis techniques. Kaplan-Meier survivor functions were used to explore bivariate relationships and Cox semi-parametric hazard model for multivariate analysis. Results showed that ethnic differences in the hazard of union dissolution become apparent only after controlling for the effects of cumulated fertility, education and birth cohort highlighting the persistence of cultural differences between ethnic groups that cannot be explained by only standard sociological and demographic variables. Ethnicity practices continue to shape marital outcomes in Senegal, especially after controlling for other covariates. This study suggests the need for large-scale and more detailed data covering all Senegalese ethnic groups for a better understanding of the complexity and the persistence of domestic and matrimonial customs and traditions in matrimonial relationships.

Is Parental Divorce Homogamy Associated With a Higher Risk of Separation From Cohabitation and Marriage?

Numerous studies have shown that parental divorce is associated with an increase in adult children's divorce risk. We extend this literature by assessing how parental divorce on both sides of a couple is related to their partnership dynamics, specifically, whether there is parental divorce homogamy and whether a history of parental divorce for both partners is associated with increased dissolution risks for cohabiting and married unions. We use Finnish Census Panel data on 28,021 cohabiting and marital partnerships to conduct event-history models that follow individuals between ages 18 and 45. Findings show substantial parental divorce homogamy. Children with experience of parental divorce have 13% greater odds of cohabiting with and 17% greater odds of marrying a fellow child of divorcees, compared with those whose parents have not divorced. Moreover, contrary to evidence from the United States and Norway, our findings for Finland support an additive—rather than multiplicative—association between parental divorce homogamy and union dissolution. Parental divorce homogamy increases offspring's union dissolution risk by 20% for cohabitation and 70% for marriage, compared with couples for whom neither partner's parents are divorced. In Finland, the sizes of these associations are notably weaker than in the United States and Norway, likely because cohabitation and separation are more widespread and socially accepted in Finland, and an expansive welfare state buffers the socioeconomic consequences of divorce.

The Gendered Relationship Between (Old and New Forms of) Employment Instability and Union Dissolution

The present study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between employment instability and union dissolution. To address the oversights of previous research, we disentangle the effect of employment instability on union dissolution by: (i) considering not only the effect of joblessness, but also the type of employment contract; (ii) evaluating both status and the accumulation of instability over the life course; and (iii) detecting gender differences. We focus on Italy, applying event-history techniques to the most recent Italian Multipurpose Survey “Families, social subjects and life cycle” of 2016, observing cohorts from 1950 to 1986. Our results suggest that the effect of employment instability on union dissolution is gender-specific: joblessness and limited-time employment are facilitators for men’s dissolution, while, for women, joblessness is an inhibitor for dissolution, and time-limited and permanent employment do not substantially differ. We also highlight the crucial role of the persistence of instability in unpacking the association between employment instability and union dissolution. This paper advances—for the first time for Italy, at least—that men’s time-limited employment arrangements negatively affect a couple’s stability.

In the Case of Union Dissolution of Couples with Children. Who Decides to Avoid the Courts and Why?

Thoroughgoing changes in western countries over the last decades have led to increased self-regulation of intimacy, thus avoiding judicialization of union formation or dissolution. However, when children were born to a couple, legal proceedings would seem to be crucial in reaching or formalizing agreements between parents regarding custody and alimony, among other aspects. Despite these benefits, almost 20% of couples with children avoid resorting to legal proceedings, according to the results of a survey conducted in six Spanish Autonomous Communities. The article analyses this data with the aim of addressing a gap in the literature on the determinants of reaching out-of-court agreements. The results indicate that upper-class individuals, immigrants in cohabiting relationships, and couples with just one child and currently not in a relationship are more likely to reach out-of-court agreements. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Correction to: Housing Affordability, Housing Tenure Status and Household Density: Are Housing Characteristics Associated with Union Dissolution?

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-021-09587-z

The Interplay of Having an Abortion, Relationship Satisfaction, and Union Dissolution

This study researches the associations between having an abortion, relationship satisfaction, and union dissolution. Empirical evidence on this topic is scarce, and there is a pronounced lack of studies analysing longitudinal data: Most previous studies have used data from women recruited from abortion clinics who are about to undergo an abortion, and therefore do not incorporate a prospective measure of relationship satisfaction pre-pregnancy. Panel studies, on the other hand, collect prospective data on various topics and allow for the estimation of more advanced models that can help identify causal mechanisms. Using data from the German Family Panel pairfam in combination with pooled logistic regressions, discrete-time event history models, as well as fixed effects regression models, this study compares relationships up to nine years before having had an abortion and eight years afterwards. The findings of the analyses can neither confirm that relationship satisfaction acts as a confounding factor that influences both the likelihood of terminating a pregnancy and union dissolution, nor as a mediating factor between having an abortion and union dissolution. A negative effect of having an abortion on relationship satisfaction appears to be only temporary. In the year of an abortion, relationship satisfaction decreases slightly. In the following years, a significant difference in relationship satisfaction to pre-abortion years is no longer visible. By using panel data, the temporal order of events can be retraced, resulting in the discovery that relationship satisfaction and union dissolution do not change drastically from pre-abortion values after having an abortion. * This article belongs to a special issue on "Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data".