Modeling the Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers in Services on Intra-African Trade: Global Trade Analysis Project Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amara Mohamed Isaac Zongo ◽  
Lukman Oyelami
Keyword(s):  
Global Trade ◽  
Project Model ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals ASEAN-Kanada Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Peluang Bagi Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Steven Raja Ingot ◽  
Dian Dwi Laksani
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Feasibility Study ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Tariff Reduction ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Trade Facilitation ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

Abstrak Senior Economic Officials Meetings (SEOM) ke-8 di Laos menghasilkan komitmen bersama ASEAN dan Kanada untuk melakukan feasibility study dalam kerangka kerja sama ASEAN-Kanada FTA. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung dampak perjanjian perdagangan barang Indonesia pada ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan model analisis Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) - Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) dengan Data Base versi 9. Penelitian ini menggunakan tiga simulasi yaitu (1) Indonesia bergabung ASEAN-Kanada FTA dengan penurunan tarif untuk semua komoditi sebesar 90% mengadopsi proposal modalitas ASEAN dalam Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), (2) penurunan tarif sebesar 90% tanpa Indonesia bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA, (3) serta peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan hambatan non tarif sebesar 20%. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa dari sisi Makroekonomi Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif peningkatan GDP sebesar 0,03% jika bergabung dalam ASEAN-Kanada FTA dibandingkan jika tidak bergabung. Indonesia akan mendapat dampak positif lebih besar jika terdapat peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM sebesar 3,35% serta peningkatan investasi sebesar 8,53%. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi, penurunan output dan peningkatan impor didominasi oleh impor bahan baku dan barang modal yang digunakan untuk input industri, sehingga keberadaan impor bahan baku tetap diperlukan. Kajian ini merekomendasikan penurunan tarif, peningkatan fasilitasi perdagangan dan penurunan NTM merupakan kebijakan yang sangat diperlukan. Kata Kunci: ASEAN-Kanada FTA, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Perdagangan, Investasi   Abstract At the 8th ASEAN Economic Senior Review Official Meetings (SEOM) in Laos, ASEAN and Canada committed to conduct a feasibility study within the framework of ASEAN-Canada FTA. This study aims to measures the impact of ASEAN-Canada FTA implementation to Indonesia using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – the 9th version of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The study run three different simulations (1) Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada with a 90% tariff reduction applied to all goods adopting ASEAN modality in Regional Comprehensice Economic Partnership (RCEP); (2) 90% Tariff reduction without Indonesia joining the ASEAN-Canada FTA, (3) improving trade facilitation and decreasing 20% non-tariff measures. Simulation result shown that from Macroeconomic perspective, Indonesia will get positive impact of increasing 0.03% GDP by joining the FTA instead of not joining. Indonesia will get higher impact by increasing trade facilitation and 8.53% investment and reducing 3.35% of NTM. Based on the results, the declining output and increasing import is dominated by import of raw materials and capital goods, therefore import of raw material remain important. This study recommended reducing tariff and NTM as well as improving trade facilitation are necessary for Indonesia. Keywords: ASEAN-Canada FTA, Economic Growth, Trade, Investment JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15

scholarly journals Dampak Penghapusan Subsidi Ekspor Produk Pertanian Terhadap Harga dan Perdagangan Produk Pangan Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-118
Author(s):  
Steven Raja Ingot ◽  
Rahayu Ningsih
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Export Subsidy ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Export Subsidies ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

Abstrak Salah satu komitmen terpenting hasil pertemuan Konferensi Tingkat Menteri World Trade Organisation (WTO) di Nairobi tahun 2015 adalah diberlakukannya penghapusan subsidi ekspor produk pertanian negara anggota WTO, baik oleh negara maju (pada 2015) maupun negara berkembang (pada 2018). Studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat dampak penghapusan subsidi ekspor produk pertanian oleh negara asal terhadap harga dan perdagangan produk pangan Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan model Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) disimpulkan bahwa penghapusan subsidi ekspor produk pertanian akan mengakibatkan kenaikan harga beberapa produk pangan impor Indonesia terutama susu. Selain itu, penghapusan subsidi ekspor juga akan berdampak pada menurunnya impor Indonesia untuk produk hortikultura, susu, dan makanan olahan sedangkan ekspor Indonesia untuk daging sapi, gula, susu dan makanan olahan akan naik. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia berpotensi untuk swasembada produk pangan sehingga dapat mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap impor.  Dengan demikian komitmen penghapusan subsidi ekspor oleh negara mitra dagang akan berdampak positif bagi Indonesia jika didukung dengan peningkatan produktivitas produk pangan. Kata Kunci: Subsidi Ekspor, Produk Pertanian, Produk Pangan, GTAP, WTO   Abstract One of the most important commitments of the meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference in Nairobi 2015 is the abolition of export subsidies for agricultural products of WTO member countries, both developed countries (in 2015) and developing countries (in 2018). This study aims to examine the impact of the elimination of export subsidy on agricultural products by trading partners toward the price and trade pattern of Indonesian food products. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, the analysis shows that the elimination of export subsidies for agricultural products would lead to higher prices of Indonesian imported food products particularly for milk products. In addition, the abolition of export subsidy would reduce Indonesian imports of horticultural commodities, milk, and processed food while exports of beef, sugar, milk and processed foods would rise. This shows that Indonesia has the potential for self-sufficiency in some food products, thereby reducing dependence on imports, therefore the abolition of export subsidy will given a more positive impact on Indonesia if supported by increasing productivity of food products.   Keywords: Export Subsidy, Agricultural Products, Food Products, GTAP, WTO JEL Classification: D58, F13, Q17, Q18

scholarly journals Impacts of Indonesia-India Free Trade Agreements on Agricultural Sector of Indonesia: A CGE Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Reni Kustiari ◽  
NFN Hermanto
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Project Model ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project

<strong>Indonesian</strong><br />India merupakan salah satu negara mitra utama Indonesia dalam perdagangan pertanian. Indonesia dan India kini sedang berunding tentang kerja sama perdagangan bebas bilateral (FTA). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi potensi dampak FTA Indonesia-India terhadap sektor pertanian dan perekonomian Indonesia secara keseluruhan. Penelitian menggunakan model Global Trade Analysis Project yang dikaitkan dengan model keseimbangan umum (CGE) Indonesia the Enormous Regional model menggunakan Tabel Input-Output 2005. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa implementasi FTA Indonesia-India dapat meningkatkan kesejahteraan kedua negara. Kenaikan kesejahteraan (PDB) India lebih besar dari pada Indonesia. Sebaliknya, surplus neraca perdagangan Indonesia lebih besar daripada India. Di sisi regional, PDB Sumatera dan Kalimantan meningkat, sedangkan PDB riil Sulawesi, Bali-NT, dan Papua-Maluku menurun. Dampak terhadap output tampak bervariasi antar sektor dan daerah. Ekspor sayuran dan buah, serta minyak nabati dan lemak menunjukkan peningkatan. Impor Indonesia untuk beberapa komoditas akan mengalami peningkatan dengan persentase yang berbeda. Tingkat kemiskinan di wilayah Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, dan Bali-Nusa Tenggara diperkirakan akan menurun. FTA Indonesia-India layak untuk diwujudkan.<br /><br /><br /><strong>English</strong><br />India is one of the Indonesia's most important partners in agricultural trade. Indonesia and India are now negotiating bilateral free trade cooperation (FTA). This study aims to evaluate potential impacts of the Indonesia-India FTA on agricultural sector and the Indonesian economy as a whole. The study uses a Global Trade Analysis Project model that is associated with the regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Indonesia the Enormous Regional model using the Indonesia Input-Output Table 2005. The results show that the implementation of the Indonesia-India FTA could improve welfare of both countries. The increase in welfare of India is higher than that of Indonesia. In contrast, Indonesia's trade balance surplus is larger than that of India. On regional side, real GDP of Sumatra and Kalimantan is predicted to increase, while real GDP of Sulawesi, Bali-NT, and Papua-Maluku to decrease. The output impacts vary across sectors and regions. Exports of vegetables and fruits, as well as vegetable oils and fats, are expected to increase. Indonesia's import for some commodities increase with different percentages. Poverty rates in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Bali-Nusa Tenggara regions are expected to decline. FTA Indonesia-India is feasible to be realized.

The Impact of Nontariff Trade Policy of European Union Crude Palm Oil Import on Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Rest of the World Economy: An Analysis in GTAP Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52
Author(s):  
Rozy A. Pratama ◽  
Tri Widodo
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The World ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest producers and exporters of palm oil in the world vegetable oil market. Palm oil and its derivative products are the highest contributors to foreign exchange in 2018. This study aims to analyze the impact of the European Union import non-tariff trade policies on the Indonesian and Malaysian economies The analysis uses the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of world trade on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) program. The results of this study found that the non-tariff import policy by the European Union had a negative impact on the economies of Indonesia and Malaysia. Moreover, the policy also has a negative impact on countries in Southeast Asia and the European Union. This shows that the enactment of non-tariff import trade policies for Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil products has a global impact.

scholarly journals Comércio internacional, alocação do trabalho e a questão da desindustrialização no Brasil: uma abordagem utilizando equilíbrio geral computável

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávio Tosi Feijó ◽  
Camila Steffens
Keyword(s):  
Global Trade ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project

<p>O presente artigo objetiva avaliar os impactos na alocação do emprego formal do fator trabalho no Brasil e verificar evidências de desindustrialização, mediante a simulação de cenários de aprofundamento do comércio internacional. O instrumento utilizado para as simulações é o modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável GTAP (<italic>Global Trade Analysis Project</italic>). Os resultados obtidos, combinados com os dados da RAIS (Relatório Anual de Informações Sociais), indicaram evidências de desindustrialização, devido à queda do emprego na indústria de transformação brasileira, principalmente no nível de qualificação média. Acordos preferenciais de comércio com a Ásia e com a União Europeia seriam os que mais contribuiriam para a referida redução. Entretanto, haveria ganhos de bem-estar em decorrência da melhor alocação dos recursos produtivos e dos termos de troca.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Productivity Increasing in Indonesian Maritim Sector: General Equilibrium Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Widyastutik Widyastutik
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Productivity Improvement ◽  
Marine Transport ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Increase In Productivity ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

The increase in productivity in the maritime sector will realize the maritime sector as a prime mover. This study aims to analyze the impact of the maritime sector productivity improvement on the performance of the economy. This research simulates increased productivity in the maritime sector (consisting of the fisheries, oil, gas sub-sector and marine transport services sector) using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) version 8. Simulation analysis showed an increase in productivity in the maritime sector has a positive impact on welfare, real GDP, and trade balance of Indonesia. However, the impact of the increase in productivity is not followed by an increase in output in all sectors. This indicates that if the increase in productivity occurs only in the maritime sector alone without being followed by an increase in productivity in other sectors, the sectoral performance is not optimal.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v5i2.3403

scholarly journals Analysis of the Role of Tariff Concessions in East Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-167
Author(s):  
Kenichi Kawasaki ◽  
Badri G. Narayanan ◽  
Houssein Guimbard ◽  
Arata Kuno
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tariff Reductions

While many studies focus on the impact of trade agreements, the literature has not focused on the extent of their implementation, in terms of the aspects agreed upon therein. In this article, we identify the past achievements of economic partnership agreements (EPAs) in the East Asian region in terms of tariff removals and suggest room for further economic benefits from trade liberalisation in the region. Second, we incorporate the HS6-level tariff concession dataset, which distinguishes between tariff removals agreed in these EPAs in East Asia but not yet implemented, from existing overall tariffs in 2011, in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database, which only incorporates enforced tariff reductions through the base-year applied tariffs. To analyse future trade integration, we include commitments that are not yet implemented. This allows us to analyse partial versus full enforcement of tariff concession commitments. Our results suggest that taking those commitments into account matters economically in East Asia. JEL Classification: D58, F13, F14, F15, F17

scholarly journals Does ASEAN-Korea FTA Reduce Poverty in Laos? The Roles of FDI and Trade Facilitation

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 50-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeong-Soo OH
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Unskilled Labor ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Trade Facilitation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper is to attempt to quantify the impact of the ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) on the roles of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the improvement of trade facilitation for the national economy and poverty. The study uses a standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model for this analysis. The simulation results show that with consideration to the flow of FDI and the improvement in trade facilitation. Laos has gained significantly from AKFTA. The real GDP, welfare, and household income have increased as well as improvement in Laos’ trade terms and balance. In addition, the income of unskilled labor that affects the poverty level has also increased significantly. Therefore, AKFTA has increased growth and also improved income distribution in Laos.

scholarly journals O PROTOCOLO DE QUIOTO E O BEM-ESTAR ECONÔMICO NO BRASIL - UMA ANÁLISE UTILIZANDO EQUILÍBRIO GERAL COMPUTÁVEL

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (51) ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávio Tosi Feijó ◽  
Sabino Porto Júnior
Keyword(s):  
Global Trade ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project

O objetivo deste trabalho é fazer uma avaliação ex-ante dos impactos no bem-estar econômico e no meio ambiente que as reduções de emissões de CO2 tratadas pelo Protocolo de Quioto podem trazer para o Brasil. Cenários alternativos são construídos para a simulação de redução de emissões de CO2 para os signatários do Protocolo, admitindo ainda a possibilidade de execução de um dos mecanismos de flexibilidade do Protocolo de Quioto – o comércio de emissões. O instrumento utilizado para as simulações – GTAP-E - é uma versão modificada do GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Os resultados obtidos corroboraram a hipótese que a política ambiental de redução de emissões, traz a um trade-off entre eficiência alocativa e meio ambiente limpo. Para o Brasil, os resultados mostraram que a melhor estratégia para participar do processo de redução de emissões seria a de o país estar inserido diretamente em um dos mecanismos de flexibilidade do Protocolo.

scholarly journals The Impact on Carbon Emissions of China with the Trade Situation versus the U.S.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 10324
Author(s):  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Zhongxiu Wang ◽  
Wenjie Dong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Output Analysis ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Trade Analysis ◽  
Global Trade Analysis Project ◽  
The Impact

The China–US trade conflict will inevitably have a negative impact on China’s trade imports and exports, industrial development, and economic growth, and will affect the achievement of climate change goals. In the short term, the impact of the trade conflict on China’s import and export trade will cause the carbon emissions contained in traded commodities to change accordingly. To assess the impact of the trade conflict on China’s climate policy, this paper combines a model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the input–output analysis method and calculates the carbon emissions in international trade before and after the conflict. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade war has led to a sharp decline in China–US trade, but for China as a whole, imports and exports have not changed much; (2) China’s export emissions have changed little, its import emissions have dropped slightly, and its net emissions have increased; and (3) China’s exports are still concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Changes in trade will bring challenges to China’s balancing of climate and trade exigencies. China–US cooperation based on energy and technology will help China cope with climate change after the trade conflict.

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