Birth Spacing and Fertility in the Presence of Son Preference and Sex-Selective Abortions: India's Experience Over Four Decades

Since the advent of prenatal sex-determination technologies in the mid-1980s, India has experienced an increasingly male-biased sex ratio at birth, presumably from sex-selective abortions. Abortions lengthen birth intervals, but we know little about how birth spacing has changed or the effects of these changes. I show that, although the overall length of birth intervals increased from 1970 to the mid-2010s, well-educated women with no sons had the most substantial lengthening, as well as the most male-biased sex ratios. Furthermore, most of these changes took place immediately after the introduction of prenatal sex-determination technologies. Consequently, some women without sons now have longer birth intervals than those with sons, reversing India's traditional spacing pattern. Women with low education continue short birth spacing when they have no sons, with only limited evidence of male-biased sex ratios. Because of the rapid lengthening of birth intervals, period fertility rates substantially overestimated how fast cohort fertility fell. Moreover, predicted cohort fertility is still 10%–20% above the period fertility rate. If the lengthening of birth intervals arises from repeated abortions, the associated short pregnancy spacing may counteract any positive effects of longer birth spacing. There is, however, no evidence of this effect on infant mortality. Judging from sex ratios, sex-selective abortion use is not declining.

Sex ratios and ‘missing women’ among Asian minority and migrant populations in Aotearoa/New Zealand: A retrospective cohort analysis

ABSTRACTBackgroundRecent research from the UK, USA, Australia, and Canada point to male-favouring Sex Ratios at Birth (SRB) among their Asian minority populations, attributed to son preference and sex-selective abortion within these cultural groups. The present study conducts a similar investigation of SRBs among New Zealand’s Asian minority and migrant populations, who comprise 15% of the population.MethodsThe New Zealand historical census series between 1976-2013 was used to examine SRBs between ages 0-5 by ethnicity. A retrospective birth cohort in New Zealand was created using the Stats NZ Integrated Data Infrastructure from 2003-2018. A logistic regression was conducted and adjusted for selected variables of interest including visa group, parity, maternal age and deprivation. Finally, associations between family size, ethnicity and family gender composition were examined in a subset of this cohort (families with 2 or 3 children).ResultsThere was no evidence of ‘missing women’ or gender bias as indicated by a deviation from the biological norm in New Zealand’s Asian population. However, Indian and Chinese families were significantly more likely to have a third child if their first two children were females compared to two male children.ConclusionThe analyses did not reveal male-favouring SRBs or any conclusive evidence of sex-selective abortion among Indian and Chinese populations. Based on this data, we conclude that in comparison to other western countries, New Zealand’s Asian migrant populations presents as an anomaly. The larger family sizes for Indian and Chinese populations where the first two children were girls suggested potentially ‘soft’ practices of son preference.WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS SUBJECT-There are discrepancies in Sex Ratios at Birth (SRB) among the Asian minority migrant populations – particularly Indian and Chinese populations –in countries like Canada, UK, USA. SRBs show a pronounced number of males over female children, suggesting a widespread practice of sex-selective abortions in these communities since the 1970s.-These trends implicitly reflect social norms of gender bias through son preference, and daughter devaluation.WHAT IS BEING ADDED-The present study did not find evidence of skewed SRBs that favour boys over girls among Asian ethnicities. The analyses however did find a tendency for Indian and Chinese families to have larger families especially when the first two children were girls.-Overall, the findings suggest the absence of widespread practices of sex-selective abortion making New Zealand an anomaly relative to other migrant-receiving countries. However, there are still vestiges of son preference that are seen through decisions around family size and gender composition.

Induced abortion among married women in China: a study based on the 1997–2017 China Fertility Surveys

This study uses four sets of data from China Fertility Surveys completed during the years 1997–2017 to analyze the trend of induced abortion, with a focus on the twenty-first century. Married women of reproductive age who had a history of pregnancy during the 5 years prior to participating in a survey were the research object. The study also examines the variation of abortion proportions among different subgroups during different time periods, including an examination of the number and gender of children, place of residence, and contraceptive use of women who had induced abortions. The results show that the occurrence of induced abortion has decreased gradually, and that the risk of induced abortion was higher for those who had given birth to fewer children. However, induced abortion among women with two children has increased in recent years. It is noteworthy that induced abortions among childless premarital women have continued to increase in recent years, and that the sexual and reproductive health problems of adolescents remain of great concern. The occurrence of induced abortions after childbirth increased for those with one or two children, showing that the unmet need for contraception after childbirth should receive more attention. In addition, sex-selective abortion has been decreasing gradually, but still exists today.

Prevalence and correlates of sex-selective abortions and missing girls in Nepal: evidence from the 2011 Population Census and 2016 Demographic and Health Survey

ObjectivesThese were to: (1) produce national and subnational estimates of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) and number of missing girl births in Nepal and (2) understand the socioeconomic correlates of these phenomena.DesignObservational secondary data analysis of (1) the 2011 population census of Nepal and (2) the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2006, 2011 and 2016.SettingNepal.Participants(1) 2 567 963 children age 0–4 in the 2011 population census and (2) 27 329 births recorded in DHSs.Primary and secondary outcomesWe estimate the SRB, and number and proportion of missing girls in the year and 5 years before the census by district. We also calculate conditional sex ratios (the SRB dependant on parity and sex of previous children) by province, time, education and wealth.ResultsWe find that 11 districts have significantly skewed sex ratios at birth in the 2011 population census, with the highest SRBs observed in Arghakhanchi (SRB=127) and Bhaktapur (SRB=123). 22 540 girl births were missing in the 5 years before the 2011 population census. Sex-selective abortion is geographically concentrated, especially in the Kathmandu Valley and Lumbini Province, with 53% of missing girls found in only 11 out of 75 districts.DHS data confirm this, with elevated conditional sex ratios observed in Bagmati and Lumbini Provinces; conditional sex ratios where previous births were all female also became more skewed over time. Skewed sex ratios are concentrated among wealthier more educated groups.ConclusionsIt is clear that sex selection will persist and develop in Nepal unless a coordinated effort is made to address both the demand for and supply of this service. Policies should be holistic and encompass economic and legal gender equity, and strengthen monitoring mechanisms to prevent technology misuse, without jeopardising the right to safe, free and legal abortion.

Son preference and the fertility squeeze in India

India's sex ratio at birth (SRB) has become increasingly masculine, coinciding with a declining total fertility rate. Couples often resort to sex-selective abortion or even infanticide to ensure the birth of a son. We use household-level data from all four waves of India's National Family Health Survey (NFHS) to investigate the effect of India's demographic transition on the SRB. Mixed-effects logit regression analysis demonstrates that since the early 1990s, the probability of a third-order birth being male is decreasing in the number of sons previously born, while for second-order births, this effect does not become apparent until the 2000s. Accounting for geographic heterogeneity in the fertility transition, we find additional heterogeneity in son preference and sex selection at the village/neighborhood level. This heterogeneity has strengthened over time at both second- and third-order births and in more and less gender skewed regions of the country, suggesting potential convergence in sex ratios across India. By incorporating the most recent 2015–16 round of the NFHS, we demonstrate that previously documented trends in sex selection continue, and additionally that sex selection is increasingly occurring at lower parities as the desire for a smaller family combines with the traditional preference for sons.