The Forecasting Model with Climate Variables of the Re-emerging Disease Rate in Elderly Patients

This research forecasted the incidence rate per 100,000 elderly population with food poisoning, pneumonia, and fever of unknown origin in Khon Kaen Province and Roi Et Province in the northeastern part of Thailand. In the study, the time series forecasting with Box-Jenkins Method (SARIMA model) and Box-Jenkins Method with climate variables, i.e total monthly rainfall, maximum average monthly temperature, average relative humidity, minimum average monthly temperature and average temperature (SARIMAX model) was performed. The study results revealed that the forecasting accuracy was closely similar to the model without the climate variables in the combined analysis although such climate variables had relationship with the incidence rate per 100,000 elderly population with food poisoning, pneumonia, and fever of unknown origin. Therefore, the appropriate model should be the SARIMA model because it is easier for analysis but with higher forecasting accuracy than the SARIMAX model.

Influence of Climate Warming on Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) Phenology in Conditions of Central Europe (Slovakia)

The impact of warming on the phenology of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in conditions of central Europe was evaluated at the locality of Dolné Plachtince in the Slovakian wine region. In Welschriesling and Pinot Blanc model varieties, the onset of phenophases as defined in the BBCH scale over the period of 1985 to 2018 was observed. Based on the data obtained, the influence of the average and average maximum temperature and GDD on the onset of phenophases was evaluated. The results observed indicate earlier budburst by five to seven days, earlier beginning of flowering by 7 to 10 days, earlier berry softening by 18 days, and harvest dates advanced by 8 to 10 days on average. In both varieties, the highest influence of the average monthly temperature in March on budburst, the highest influence of the average monthly temperature and the average maximum temperature in May on the beginning of flowering, and the highest statistically significant influence of the average maximum temperature in June on the softening of berries was found. Warming observed in moderate climate conditions of northern wine regions in central Europe (Slovakia) has not yet caused changes in the grapevine phenology stable enough to require serious adaptation measures.

Distribution of the average monthly air temperature in August on the territory of the Crimean Peninsula

Оригинальное исследование по изучению распределения среднемесячной температуры в августе на территории Республики Крым проведено сотрудниками сектора агроэкологии. Неоднократно доказывалось, что температура воздуха оказывает большое влияние на рост, развитие и качественные показатели виноградного растения. Особое влияние на качество урожая оказывает температура воздуха в августе, так как именно в этот период наблюдается лучшая ассимиляция углерода листьями и соответственно происходит накопление сахаров и уменьшение кислотности. В качестве материалов были использованы электронная модель рельефа SRTM-3 территории Крымского полуострова и многолетние данные метеонаблюдений по 17 метеостанциям Крыма и Севастополя за 1985-2019 гг. Для моделирования пространственного распределения величины среднемесячной температуры воздуха в августе были использованы три математические модели, в том числе одна авторская. На основании полученных результатов была построена цифровая крупномасштабная карта пространственного распределения среднемесячной температуры воздуха в августе на территории Крымского полуострова и выделено 5 зон по среднемесячной температуре в августе. Использование данных моделей в ГИС (геоинформационная система) дает возможность автоматизировать анализ степени пригодности территории для возделывания винограда. The original study on the distribution of the average monthly temperature in August on the territory of the Republic of Crimea was carried out by staff scientists of the Agroecology Sector. It has been proven many times that air temperature has a great influence on the growth, development and quality indicators of a grape plant. Air temperature in August has a special effect on a crop quality, since it is during this very period the best assimilation of carbon by leaves is observed, resulting in sugar accumulation and acidity decrease. The materials used were the SRTM-3 digital terrain model of the Crimean Peninsula and long-term average annual data of meteorological observations in 17 meteorological stations of Crimea and Sevastopol for the period of 1985-2019. To model spatial distribution of the average monthly air temperature in August, three mathematical models, including one authorial, were used. Digital large-scale map of spatial distribution of the average monthly air temperature in August on the territory of the Crimean Peninsula was compiled basing on the results obtained. Five zones were identified according to the average monthly temperature in August. Using of these models in GIS (geoinformation system) makes it possible to computerize the analysis of applicability of the territory for grape cultivation.

Influence of Climate Warming on Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) Phenology in Conditions of Central Europe (Slovakia)

The impact of warming on the phenology of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in conditions of Central Europe was evaluated at the locality of Dolné Plachtince in the Slovakian wine region. In Welschriesling and Pinot Blanc model varieties there was observed onset of phenophases as defined in BBCH scale over 1985–2018 period. Based on the data obtained there was evaluated the influence of average and average maximum temperature and GDD on the onset of phenophases. The results observed indicate earlier budburst by 5–7 days, earlier beginning of flowering by 7–10 days, and earlier berry softening by 18 days, and harvest dates advanced by 8–10 days on average. In both varieties there was found the highest influence of the average monthly temperature in March on budburst, the highest influence of the average monthly temperature and the average maximum temperature in May on the beginning of flowering, and the highest, statistically significant influence of the average maximum temperature in June on grape veraison. The warming observed in moderate climate conditions of northern wine regions in Central Europe (Slovakia) has not caused yet the changes in the grapevine phenology stable enough to require serious adaptation measures.

Influence of Climate Warming on Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) Phenology in Conditions of Central Europe (Slovakia)

The impact of warming on the phenology of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in conditions of Central Europe was evaluated at the locality of Dolné Plachtince in the Slovakian wine region. In Welschriesling and Pinot Blanc model varieties there was observed onset of phenophases as defined in BBCH scale over 1985–2018 period. Based on the data obtained there was evaluated the influence of average and average maximum temperature and GDD on the onset of phenophases. The results observed indicate earlier budburst by 5–7 days, earlier beginning of flowering by 7–10 days, and earlier berry softening by 18 days, and harvest dates advanced by 8–10 days on average. In both varieties there was found the highest influence of the average monthly temperature in March on budburst, the highest influence of the average monthly temperature and the average maximum temperature in May on the beginning of flowering, and the highest, statistically significant influence of the average maximum temperature in June on grape veraison. The warming observed in moderate climate conditions of northern wine regions in Central Europe (Slovakia) has not caused yet the changes in the grapevine phenology stable enough to require serious adaptation measures.

Forest Machinery Fires

Fires in forest machines are typically catastrophic in terms of machine destruction and can develop rapidly to be a risk to the machine operator. They are an issue worldwide and there can be larger consequences such as starting a major forest fire. This paper describes trends in machine fire occurrences in the New Zealand forest harvesting sector. A total of 224 machinery fire incidents were recorded over an 8 year period from 2007 to 2014. Trends in forest machinery fires in the sector were identified and summarized. Late morning (10 am-noon) and mid-afternoon (2–4 pm) showed the highest incidence of machine fire, corresponding to periods with the highest level of work. Excluding the main holiday months, there was a correlation of machine fires to average monthly temperature. Summary statistics on causes of fire ignition showed that 40% were attributed to electrical and hydraulic faults; however, some remain unidentified as the fires commenced after work was completed. A short survey of industry managers was carried out to ascertain machine fire perceptions. 67% agreed that machine fire was an issue, and only 33% thought the current industry procedures were sufficient to mitigate them. The report concludes with proactive measures to reduce the incidence of forest machine fire risk.

Relationship Between Water Birds’ Number and the Temperature in Beijing Wetland: A Case Study on Cuihu Wetland

Beijing is an important transfer station of bird migration, and its function as a bird habitat is very significant. Wetland birds have an extremely high reference value as ecological indicators and are greatly affected by climate change. This study takes waterbirds in Beijing Cuihu Wetland Park as the research object, carries out a statistical analysis of the number of birds in each year, and summarizes the relationship between them and Beijing's climate change. The results showed that Anatidae and Ardeidae accounted for a substantial part of wetland waterfowl, and their number was increasing year by year. There was a significant correlation between the monthly average number of two kinds of waterfowls and the average monthly temperature, and the negative correlation was found between the number of Anatidae and the average monthly temperature. The number of Anatidae and Ardeidae in spring and autumn are related to the monthly average temperature, seasonal average temperature and annual average temperature of the previous year.

DO COLD TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE SPREAD OF THE NEW CORONAVIRUS INFECTION?

Significance. There are many studies on the influence of climate on the spread of coronavirus, however, the effect of low temperatures on the development of the COVID-19 epidemic is yet to be determined. Purpose: to evaluate impact of low temperatures on the spread of the new coronavirus infection. Material and methods. Dynamics in newly detected cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection for the period from November 1 to December 31 in 85 regions of the Russian Federation has been analyzed. Based on discrepancies in the projected course of the COVID-19 epidemic according to data for the periods from November 1 - December 7 and November 1 - December 20, groups of the regions have been formed. Mean values of risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 have been compared across these groups. The extrapolation method was used for forecasting with analytical alignment of the temporal series. The procedure has then been repeated for the periods from November 1 - December 20 and December 16-31. Results. In the second part of December, deterioration of the epidemic situation was projected in two groups, while improvement of the epidemic situation was projected in two groups, and an unchanged level of detection of new cases of infection was projected in one group. The average monthly temperatures in December in the groups with the projected rise in the number of infections were significantly higher than in other groups. The tendency towards improvements in the forecast of the epidemic situation as the risk factors change is disrupted by the group with stabilization in the number of cases after the increasing trend. In this group, the average monthly temperature (-6.4°C [-7.8 — -5.0]) is higher than in the group with the unchanged epidemic situation (-8.5°C [-9.4 — -7.5]), where the influence of low temperatures was likely to manifest by the beginning of December. In the group with the decreased number of cases, the average temperature was (-18.3°C [-20.8 — -15.9]. With changes in trends in the third part of December, significant differences between subgroups were registered only in terms of the mean monthly temperature with the rest of the risk factors being identified in some cases only. In general, no correlation between the COVID-19 infection and the average monthly temperature was identified in the country. There is a correlation between the prevalence and the number of doctors (r = 0.33) and population density (r = 0.37), but the trend towards better forecasts in the regions does not agree with the last risk factor. Conclusion. The study results support the hypothesis that low air temperatures reduce the SARS-COV-2 transmission. Their influence is manifested in the regions with a fairly high level of the infection prevalence.