Abstract. The middle route of South-To-North Water Diversion in China transfers water
from the Han River and Han-To-Wei Water Diversion project of Shaanxi Province
will transfer water from the Ziwu River, which is a tributary of the Han
River. In order to gain a better understanding of future changes in the
hydrological conditions within the Ziwu River basin, a
Mann–Kendall
(M–K) trend analysis is coupled with a persistence analysis using the
rescaled range analysis (R/S) method. The future change in the hydrological
characteristics of the Ziwu River basin is obtained by analysing the change
of meteorological factors. The results show that, the future precipitation
and potential evaporation are seasonal, and the spatial variation is
significant. The proportion of basin area where the spring, summer, autumn
and winter precipitation is predicted to continue increase is 0.00, 100.00,
19.00 and 16.00 %, meanwhile, the proportion of basin area that will
continue to decrease in the future respectively will be 100.00, 0.00, 81.00
and 74.00 %.The future potential evapotranspiration of the four seasons in
the basin shows a decreasing trend. The future water supply situation in the
spring and autumn of the Ziwu River basin will degrade, and the future water
supply situation in the summer and winter will improve. In addition, the
areas with the same water supply situation are relatively concentrated. The
results will provide scientific basis for the planning and management of
river basin water resources and socio-hydrological processes analysis.