scholarly journals China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (40) ◽  
pp. e2108900118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Marois ◽  
Stuart Gietel-Basten ◽  
Wolfgang Lutz
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Optimistic Picture ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

China’s low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure–based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong—especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called “productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio” can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged.

scholarly journals The Female Secondary Stipend and Assistance Program in Bangladesh: What Did It Accomplish?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahidur Rahman Khandker ◽  
Hussain Akhterus Samad ◽  
Nobuhiko Fuwa ◽  
Ryotaro Hayashi
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Female Education ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Female Labor ◽  
Assistance Program ◽  
Age At Marriage ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

Are subsidies to female education worth supporting to enhance socioeconomic and demographic changes? This paper examines whether or not the Female Secondary Stipend and Assistance Program (FSSAP) in Bangladesh matters. If it does, how much and in what way—on both observed short- and long- term outcomes associated with female education? How did FSSAP impact the education of children, and boys in particular? The paper also explores the impact on female labor force participation, as well as age at marriage, fertility, and other effects on society.

scholarly journals Does universal long-term care insurance boost female labor force participation? Macro-level evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michihito Ando ◽  
Masato Furuichi ◽  
Yoshihiro Kaneko
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Female Labor Force Participation ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Female Labor ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Long Term Care Insurance

Abstract Although a public long-term care (LTC) program is a potentially important factor for the labor supply of female informal caregivers, there are only a handful of individual-level studies on this topic and the macro-level impacts of LTC programs are still largely unknown. Exploiting the introduction of nationwide long-term care insurance (LTCI) in Japan and utilizing a synthetic control method, we examine how LTCI introduction has altered the trends of public expenditures on in-kind benefits for the elderly, public health expenditure, and female labor force participation. The estimation results using the panel data of OECD countries (1980–2013) suggest that LTCI introduction substantially increased the in-kind benefits for the elderly by around one percentage point of GDP 10 years after LTCI introduction, but we do not find a positive effect on the labor force participation for middle-aged women. The fact that we do not observe any positive LTCI effects on middle-aged female labor force participation on a macro level implies that positive LTCI effects on female labor supply observed in some previous microlevel studies may be cancelled out by some other factors or are small enough to be detected under a general-equilibrium setting.

Interaction Between Population Aging and Technological Innovation: A Chinese Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 971-979
Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Xindong Zhao ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Age Dependency ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

Based on the method of unidirectional causality measure, this paper analyzes the long-term and short-term dynamic effects and causality between China’s population aging and technological innovation. According to the empirical results, first, the aging of the population will eventually have a continuous long-term impact, although it has little effect on the technology innovation in the short term. Second, when compared with the old-age dependency ratio, the child-raising ratio has a remarkable unidirectional causal effect on the technological innovation in the short term. Third, when compared with the old-age dependency ratio, the total dependency ratio has a stronger impact on the scientific and technological innovation ability, which is a long-term effect. The finding indicates that the elderly population and the children’s population have a continuous impact on China’s scientific and technological innovation, that is, the increase in social support burden affects the technological innovation for a long time.

scholarly journals Pengaruh faktor-faktor kependudukan dan kontribusi sektor pertanian terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Jambi

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-95
Author(s):  
Tri Utari ◽  
Junaidi Junaidi ◽  
Hardiani Hardiani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Load Ratio ◽  
Labor Force Participation Rate ◽  
Dependency Ratio

This research aims to analyze the state of population growth, dependency ratio, labor force participation rate, contribution of the agricultural sector and economic growth in regencies/cities in Jambi Province. In addition, it also analyzes the influence of population growth, the dependency ratio, the level of labor force participation and the contribution of the agricultural sector to economic growth in regencies/cities in Jambi Province in 2012-2017. The method of analysis in this research is panel data analysis with the fixed effect method. The results of the study provide the conclusion that population growth and the dependency load ratio have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in regencies/cities in Jambi Province. The level of labor force participation and the contribution of the agricultural sector have no significant effect on economic growth in the regencies/cities of Jambi Province. Keywords: Population Growth, Dependency Ratio, Labor Force Participation Rate, Agricultural Sector Contribution, and Economic Growth.

Boosting Mongolia’s Long-Term Economic Growth through More Equal Labor Force Participation between Men and Women

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Female Labor Force Participation ◽  
Female Labor ◽  
Men And Women

This Observations and Suggestions note provides recommendations to boost female labor force participation in Mongolia.

scholarly journals Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government—Fighting Poverty: Lessons from Recent U.S. History

2000 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca M Blank
Keyword(s):  
Welfare Reform ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Public Assistance ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Behavioral Changes ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Welfare Dependence

Welfare reform efforts in the 1990s aimed at reducing welfare dependence and moving women into work. Public assistance use fell and labor force participation among mothers rose at a stunning rate over the decade. Poverty declined, but at a slower rate. These changes are causally related to the strong macroeconomy, welfare reform efforts, and other policy changes, especially the EITC and minimum wage expansions. This paper concludes that all of these effects reinforced each other, producing very large behavioral changes. It is too early to predict the effects of these changes on long-term family well-being.

scholarly journals Economic Implications of Ageing Lithuanian Population

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gindra Kasnauskienė ◽  
Marija Andriuškaitė
Keyword(s):  
Ageing Population ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Structure Of Population ◽  
Short Run ◽  
New Research ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Research Period

Increased life expectancy combined with declining birth rates and massive emigration flows have caused many to worry about the various impacts of an ageing population in Lithuania. This suggests a very big increase in the dependency ratio and is consequently a cause for concern about a future slowing of economic growth. However, there is little research carried out regarding economic or financial effects of this phenomenon in the country. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of Lithuanian ageing population on economic variables. A new research design is implemented by using VAR and ARMAX models to compare two different approaches, treating ageing as an endogenous and exogenous variable. The authors find that old age dependency ratio has no statistically significant impact on Lithuania’s GDP growth, employment rate, final household consumption and gross national savings in the short run. The results achieved can be explained by incomplete and only short run data available for Lithuania. Also, joining the EU and other favorable economic conditions might have boosted Lithuania’s economic performance over the whole research period and significantly reduced the negative effects of ageing population. However, the impact of shifts in the structure of population age might soon come into effect, as Lithuania‘s society is gathering the pace of ageing, which is also seen in other emerging markets that are progressing toward becoming advanced.  

scholarly journals Labor Market Trends and Outcomes: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?

2021 ◽  
Vol 695 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-69
Author(s):  
Erica L. Groshen ◽  
Harry J. Holzer
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
High School Education ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Market Trends ◽  
Early Effects

This article describes 40 years of trends in wages and labor force participation for the “working class”—workers with a high school education or less—compared to workers with a college degree or more. We compare cyclical peaks over the entire period 1979 to 2019, with particular focus on the Great Recession (2007–2010) and recovery (2010–2019). We also present results by gender and race. We find real wage growth for all workers in the recovery from the Great Recession, but not enough to change the long-term trends of growing inequality and stagnant wages for the less educated. We also find that labor force participation continued to decline for the less educated, even during the recovery. Gaps between whites and Blacks grew, while Hispanics and Asians made more progress than Blacks. We consider various explanations for these findings and show that the early effects of the 2020 to 2021 pandemic recession hurt less-educated workers and those of color more than anyone else.

scholarly journals Effects of the COVID-19 Recession on the US Labor Market: Occupation, Family, and Gender

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-24
Author(s):  
Stefania Albanesi ◽  
Jiyeon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Family Status ◽  
Time Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact

The economic crisis associated with the emergence of the novel corona virus is unlike standard recessions. Demand for workers in high contact and inflexible service occupations has declined while parental supply of labor has been reduced by lack of access to reliable child care and in-person schooling options. This has led to a substantial and persistent drop in employment and labor force participation for women, who are typically less affected by recessions than men. We examine real-time data on employment, unemployment, labor force participation and gross job flows to document the impact of the pandemic by occupation, gender and family status. We also discuss the potential long-term implications of this crisis, including the role of automation in depressing the recovery of employment for the worst hit service occupations.

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