Guidelines for volcano-observatory operations during crises: recommendations from the 2019 volcano observatory best practices meeting

In November 2019, the fourth Volcano Observatory Best Practices workshop was held in Mexico City as a series of talks, discussions, and panels. Volcanologists from around the world offered suggestions for ways to optimize volcano-observatory crisis operations. By crisis, we mean unrest that may or may not lead to eruption, the eruption itself, or its aftermath, all of which require analysis and communications by the observatory. During a crisis, the priority of the observatory should be to acquire, process, analyze, and interpret data in a timely manner. A primary goal is to communicate effectively with the authorities in charge of civil protection. Crisis operations should rely upon exhaustive planning in the years prior to any actual unrest or eruptions. Ideally, nearly everything that observatories do during a crisis should be envisioned, prepared, and practiced prior to the actual event. Pre-existing agreements and exercises with academic and government collaborators will minimize confusion about roles and responsibilities. In the situation where planning is unfinished, observatories should prioritize close ties and communications with the land and civil-defense authorities near the most threatening volcanoes.To a large extent, volcanic crises become social crises, and any volcano observatory should have a communication strategy, a lead communicator, regular status updates, and a network of colleagues outside the observatory who can provide similar messaging to a public that desires consistent and authoritative information. Checklists permit tired observatory staff to fulfill their duties without forgetting key communications, data streams, or protocols that need regular fulfilment (Bretton et al. Volcanic Unrest. Advances in Volcanology, 2018; Newhall et al. Bull Volcanol 64:3–20, 2020). Observatory leaders need to manage staff workload to prevent exhaustion and ensure that expertise is available as needed. Event trees and regular group discussions encourage multi-disciplinary thinking, consideration of disparate viewpoints, and documentation of all group decisions and consensus. Though regulations, roles and responsibilities differ around the world, scientists can justify their actions in the wake of an eruption if they document their work, are thoughtful and conscientious in their deliberations, and carry out protocols and procedures developed prior to volcanic unrest. This paper also contains six case studies of volcanic eruptions or observatory actions that illustrate some of the topics discussed herein. Specifically, we discuss Ambae (Vanuatu) in 2017–2018, Kīlauea (USA) in 2018, Etna (Italy) in 2018, Bárðarbunga (Iceland) in 2014, Cotopaxi (Ecuador) in 2015, and global data sharing to prepare for eruptions at Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo). A Spanish-language version of this manuscript is provided as Additional file 1.

Insights from Fumarole Gas Geochemistry on the Recent Volcanic Unrest of Pico do Fogo, Cape Verde

We report the results of the geochemical monitoring of the fumarolic discharges at the Pico do Fogo volcano in Cape Verde from 2007 to 2016. During this period Pico do Fogo experienced a volcanic eruption (November 23, 2014) that lasted 77 days, from a new vent ∼2.5 km from the fumaroles. Two fumaroles were sampled, a low (F1∼100°C) and a medium (F2∼300°C) temperature. The variations observed in the δ18O and δ2H in F1 and F2 suggest different fluid source contributions and/or fractionation processes. Although no significant changes were observed in the outlet fumarole temperatures, two clear increases were observed in the vapor fraction of fumarolic discharges during the periods November 2008–2010 and 2013–2014. Also, two sharp peaks were observed in CO2/CH4 ratios at both fumaroles, in November 2008 and November 2013. This confirms that gases with a strong magmatic component rose towards the surface within the Pico do Fogo system during 2008 and 2013. Further, F2 showed two CO2/Stotal peaks, the first in late 2010 and the second after eruption onset, suggesting the occurrence of magmatic pulses into the volcanic system. Time series of He/CO2, H2/CO2 and CO/CO2 ratios are low in 2008–2009, and high in 2013–2014 period, supporting the hypothesis of fluid input from a deeper magmatic source. Regarding to the isotopic composition, increases in air-corrected 3He/4He ratios are observed in both fumaroles; F1 showed a peak in 2010 from a minimum in 2009 during the first magmatic reactivation onset and another in late 2013, while F2 displayed a slower rise to its maximum in late 2013. The suite of geochemical species analyzed have considerably different reactivities, hence these integrated geochemical time-series can be used to detect the timing of magmatic arrivals to the base of the system, and importantly, indicate the typical time lags between gas release periods at depth and their arrival at the surface. The high 3He/4He ratios in both fumaroles in the range observed for mid-ocean ridge basalts, indicating that He is predominantly of upper mantle origin. This work supports that monitoring of the chemical and isotopic composition of the fumaroles of the Pico do Fogo volcano is a very important tool to understand the processes that take place in the magmatic-hydrothermal system and to be able to predict future episodes of volcanic unrest and to mitigate volcanic risk.

Study of Surface Emissions of 220Rn (Thoron) at Two Sites in the Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy) during Volcanic Unrest in the Period 2011–2017

The study concerns the analysis of 220Rn (thoron) recorded in the surface soil in two sites of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, Southern Italy) characterized by phases of volcanic unrest in the seven-year period 1 July 2011–31 December 2017. Thoron comes only from the most surface layer, so the characteristics of its time series are strictly connected to the shallow phenomena, which can also act at a distance from the measuring point in these particular areas. Since we measured 220Rn in parallel with 222Rn (radon), we found that by using the same analysis applied to radon, we obtained interesting information. While knowing the limits of this radioisotope well, we highlight only the particular characteristics of the emissions of thoron in the surface soil. Here, we show that it also shows some clear features found in the radon signal, such as anomalies and signal trends. Consequently, we provide good evidence that, in spite of the very short life of 220Rn compared to 222Rn, both are related to the carrier effect of CO2, which has significantly increased in the last few years within the caldera. The hydrothermal alterations, induced by the increase in temperature and pressure of the caldera system, occur in the surface soils and significantly influence thoron’s power of exhalation from the surface layer. The effects on the surface thoron are reflected in both sites, but with less intensity, the same behavior of 222Rn following the increasing movements and fluctuations of the geophysical and geochemical parameters (CO2 flux, fumarolic tremor, background seismicity, soil deformation). An overall linear correlation was found between the 222−220Rn signals, indicating the effect of the CO2 vector. The overall results represent a significant step forward in the use and interpretation of the thoron signal.

Volcanic unrest at Hakone volcano after the 2015 phreatic eruption: reactivation of a ruptured hydrothermal system?

Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, volcanic unrest has occurred every 2–5 years at Hakone volcano. After the 2015 eruption, unrest activity changed significantly in terms of seismicity and geochemistry. Like the pre- and co-eruptive unrest, each post-eruptive unrest episode was detected by deep inflation below the volcano (~ 10 km) and deep low frequency events, which can be interpreted as reflecting supply of magma or magmatic fluid from depth. The seismic activity during the post-eruptive unrest episodes also increased; however, seismic activity beneath the eruption center during the unrest episodes was significantly lower, especially in the shallow region (~ 2 km), while sporadic seismic swarms were observed beneath the caldera rim, ~ 3 km away from the center. This observation and a recent InSAR analysis imply that the hydrothermal system of the volcano could be composed of multiple sub-systems, each of which can host earthquake swarms and show independent volume changes. The 2015 eruption established routes for steam from the hydrothermal sub-system beneath the eruption center (≥ 150 m deep) to the surface through the cap-rock, allowing emission of super-heated steam (~ 160 ºC). This steam showed an increase in magmatic/hydrothermal gas ratios (SO2/H2S and HCl/H2S) in the 2019 unrest episode; however, no magma supply was indicated by seismic and geodetic observations. Net SO2 emission during the post-eruptive unrest episodes, which remained within the usual range of the post-eruptive period, is also inconsistent with shallow intrusion. We consider that the post-eruptive unrest episodes were also triggered by newly derived magma or magmatic fluid from depth; however, the breached cap-rock was unable to allow subsequent pressurization and intensive seismic activity within the hydrothermal sub-system beneath the eruption center. The heat released from the newly derived magma or fluid dried the vapor-dominated portion of the hydrothermal system and inhibited scrubbing of SO2 and HCl to allow a higher magmatic/hydrothermal gas ratio. The 2015 eruption could have also breached the sealing zone near the brittle–ductile transition and the subsequent self-sealing process seems not to have completed based on the observations during the post-eruptive unrest episodes.

Chapter 7.1 Deception Island

Deception Island (South Shetland Islands) is one of the most active volcanoes in Antarctica, with more than 15 explosive eruptive events registered over the past two centuries. Recent eruptions (1967, 1969 and 1970) and volcanic unrest episodes in 1992, 1999 and 2014–15 demonstrate that the occurrence of future volcanic activity is a valid and pressing concern for scientists, logistic personnel and tourists that are visiting or are working on or near the island. Over the last few decades, intense research activity has been carried out on Deception Island to decipher the origin and evolution of this very complex volcano. To that end, a solid integration of related scientific disciplines, such as tectonics, petrology, geochemistry, geophysics, geomorphology, remote sensing, glaciology, is required. A proper understanding of the island's evolution in the past, and its present state, is essential for improving the efficiency in interpreting monitoring data recorded during volcanic unrest periods and, hence, for future eruption forecasting. In this chapter, we briefly present Deception Island's most relevant tectonic, geomorphological, volcanological and magmatic features, as well as the results obtained from decades of monitoring the island's seismic activity and ground deformation.

Temporal seismic velocity changes during the 2020 rapid inflation at Mt. Thorbjorn-Svartsengi, Iceland, using ambient seismic noise

<p>The Reykjanes peninsula, SW Iceland, was struck by intense earthquake swarm activity that occurred in January-July 2020 due to repeated magmatic intrusions in the Reykjanes-Svartsengi volcanic system. GPS and InSAR observations confirmed surface deformation centered near Mt. Thorbjorn, and during the unrest period, approximately ~14,000 earthquakes (-2≤M≤4.9) were reported at the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO). We investigate the behavior of the crust as a response to these repeated intrusions to provide insights into volcanic unrest in the Reykjanes peninsula. Our study presents temporal seismic wave velocity variations (dv/v, in percent) based on ambient noise seismic interferometry using continuous three-component waveforms collected by IMO, (http://www.vedur.is) for the period from April 2018 to November 2020. The state-of-the-art MSNoise software package (http://www.msnoise.org) is used to calculate cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise and to quantify the relative seismic velocity variations. We observe that magmatic intrusions in the vicinity of Mt. Thorbjorn-Svartsengi have considerably reduced the seismic wave velocities (dv/v, -1%) in the 1-2 Hz frequency band. Seismic velocity changes were compared with local seismicity, GPS and InSAR data recorded close to the repeated intrusions, and modelled volumetric strain changes. We found a good correlation between the dv/v variations and the available deformation data. The Rayleigh wave phase-velocity sensitivity kernels showed that the changes occurring at depths down to ~3-4 km in the crust were captured by our measurements. We interpret the relative seismic velocity decrease to be caused by crack opening induced by intrusive magmatic activity. Monitoring the Mt. Thorbjorn-Svartsengi volcanic unrest is crucial for successful early warning of volcanic hazards since the center of uplift is only 2km away from a fishing village and major infrastructure in the area, such as water supply and geothermal power. For the first time in Iceland, we have provided near-real-time dv/v variations to obtain a more complete picture of this magmatic activity. Our findings are supported by the analysis of other primary monitoring streams. We propose that this technique may be useful for early detection of future intrusions/increased magmatic activity. This study is supported by the Icelandic Research Fund, Rannis (Grant No: 185209-051).</p>