US policy on Taiwan 2002–2018

The Taiwan issue has always been the most sensitive and difficult in China – US relations. This article examines the US policy on Taiwan from 2002 to 2018 in the context of the Sino – US relations related to China’s territorial unification and sovereignty integrity. The article also concerns the global strategic interests of the United States. In particular, after the Trump administration came to power it fre- quently touched China’s bottom line of maintaining adherence to the One China poli- cy, which led to a rise of the Taiwan issue and aggravated the turmoil in the Taiwan Strait. The US policy toward Taiwan has changed not only on the issue of peace and stability across Taiwan Strait but also related to the increased risk of Sino – US mili- tary conflict. Therefore, it is very important to consider the US policy toward Taiwan during outlined period. The author adopts historical analysis and literature research methods, and based on a significant number of the scientific research results of Chinese and American scholars. The research content covers the Taiwan policy of the administra- tion Bush, Obama, and Trump. The author attempts to expose the strategic essence behind the US policy toward Taiwan, focusing on analyzing the relationship between US policymaking and the China and Taiwan’ relationship factors. The article finds that the US Taiwan policy can be generally regarded as subordination to the China strategy, but there are some cases different from it. On this basis, this article discov- ers variables of China – US relations, US – Taiwan relations, the United States Con- gress and Taiwan politics to prove the hypothesis that US Taiwan policy follows the China’s policy in the majority of cases.

From Strategic Ambiguity to Maximum Pressure? Explaining the Logic of the US Taiwan Policy in the Post–Cold War Era

How do changes in US Taiwan policy play out? What is the logic behind these changes? To address these questions, existing studies have formulated four schools of explanation, providing valuable theoretical insights. However, these studies have obvious problems with unidirectional dichotomy and thus fail to identify a causal mechanism explaining the long-term trajectory of US Taiwan policy. This article conducts a re-typology of US Taiwan policy to break the traditional strategic ambiguity–clarity dichotomy by establishing three key indicators and argues that the orientation of US China policy and Taiwan’s US policy are the two major factors triggering changes. By conceptualizing and operationalizing the two independent variables as engagement-oriented, coopetition-oriented, containment-oriented, and hedging/bandwagoning/binding, this article develops a systemic theoretical framework to demonstrate how the US Taiwan policy transits between strategic clarity, maximum pressure, partial strategic clarity, between partial strategic clarity and strategic ambiguity, strategic ambiguity, and controlling the pro-independent forces. This article conducts empirical studies by reviewing the transition of US Taiwan policy under different presidencies in post–Cold War era to demonstrate how the theoretical framework works in realpolitik.

Biden seeks to strike a careful balance on Taiwan

Headline TAIWAN/US: Biden seeks balance on Taiwan policy

Biden’s Taiwan policy will be softer but still solid

Significance His successor, Joe Biden, with a more international outlook and a less confrontational approach to Beijing, may nonetheless be better able to promote Taiwan’s prosperity and security. Impacts China-US economic ‘de-coupling’ could benefit Taiwan. Biden will support continued arms sales to Taiwan, but attempt to slow their pace and scale. Biden will resist starting talks on a free trade agreement with Taiwan, but pressure from Congress makes it a possibility.