Hazardous base surges of Taal’s 2020 eruption

After 43 years of repose, Taal Volcano erupted on 12 January 2020 forming hazardous base surges. Using field, remote sensing (i.e. UAV and LiDAR), and numerical methods, we gathered primary data to generate well-constrained observed information on dune bedform characteristics, impact dynamic pressures and velocities of base surges. This is to advance our knowledge on this type of hazard to understand and evaluate its consequences and risks. The dilute and wet surges traveled at 50-60 ms−1 near the crater rim and decelerated before making impact on coastal communities with dynamic pressures of at least 1.7 kPa. The base surges killed more than a thousand livestock in the southeast of Taal Volcano Island, and then traveled another ~ 600 m offshore. This work is a rare document of a complete, fresh, and practically undisturbed base surge deposit, important in the study of dune deposits formed by volcanic and other processes on Earth and other planets.

A Novel Initialization Technique for Decadal Climate Predictions

Model initialization is a matter of transferring the observed information available at the start of a forecast to the model. An optimal initialization is generally recognized to be able to improve climate predictions up to a few years ahead. However, systematic errors in models make the initialization process challenging. When the observed information is transferred to the model at the initialization time, the discrepancy between the observed and model mean climate causes the drift of the prediction toward the model-biased attractor. Although such drifts can be generally accounted for with a posteriori bias correction techniques, the bias evolving along the prediction might affect the variability that we aim at predicting, and disentangling the small magnitude of the climate signal from the initial drift to be removed represents a challenge. In this study, we present an innovative initialization technique that aims at reducing the initial drift by performing a quantile matching between the observed state at the initialization time and the model state distribution. The adjusted initial state belongs to the model attractor and the observed variability amplitude is scaled toward the model one. Multi-annual climate predictions integrated for 5 years and run with the EC-Earth3 Global Coupled Model have been initialized with this novel methodology, and their prediction skill has been compared with the non-initialized historical simulations from CMIP6 and with the same decadal prediction system but based on full-field initialization. We perform a skill assessment of the surface temperature, the heat content in the ocean upper layers, the sea level pressure, and the barotropic ocean circulation. The added value of the quantile matching initialization is shown in the North Atlantic subpolar region and over the North Pacific surface temperature as well as for the ocean heat content up to 5 years. Improvements are also found in the predictive skill of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the barotropic stream function in the Labrador Sea throughout the 5 forecast years when compared to the full field method.

Characterizing Online Media on COVID-19 during the Early Months of the Pandemic

The 2019 coronavirus disease had wide-ranging effects on public health throughout the world. Vital in managing its spread was effective communication about public health guidelines such as social distancing and sheltering in place. Our study provides a descriptive analysis of online information sharing about coronavirus-related topics in 5.2 million English-language news articles, blog posts, and discussion forum entries shared in 197 countries during the early months of the pandemic. We illustrate potential approaches to analyze the data while emphasizing how often-overlooked dimensions of the online media environment play a crucial role in the observed information-sharing patterns. In particular, we show how the following three dimensions matter: (1) online media posts’ geographic location in relation to local exposure to the virus; (2) the platforms and types of media chosen for discussing various topics; and (3) temporal variations in information-sharing patterns. Our descriptive analyses of the multimedia data suggest that studies that overlook these crucial aspects of online media may arrive at misleading conclusions about the observed information-sharing patterns. This could impact the success of potential communication strategies devised based on data from online media. Our work has broad implications for the study and design of computational approaches for characterizing large-scale information dissemination during pandemics and beyond.

Limited evidence for executive function load impairing selective copying in a win-stay lose-shift task

The use of ‘explicitly metacognitive’ learning strategies has been proposed as an explanation for uniquely human capacities for cumulative culture. Such strategies are proposed to rely on explicit, system-2 cognitive processes, to enable advantageous selective copying. To investigate the plausibility of this theory, we investigated participants’ ability to make flexible learning decisions, and their metacognitive monitoring efficiency, under executive function (EF) load. Adult participants completed a simple win-stay lose-shift (WSLS) paradigm task, intended to model a situation where presented information can be used to inform response choice, by copying rewarded responses and avoiding those that are unrewarded. This was completed alongside a concurrent switching task. Participants were split into three conditions: those that needed to use a selective copying, WSLS strategy, those that should always copy observed information, and those that should always do the opposite (Expt 1). Participants also completed a metacognitive monitoring task alongside the concurrent switching task (Expt 2). Conditions demanding selective strategies were more challenging than those requiring the use of one rule consistently. In addition, consistently copying was less challenging than consistently avoiding observed stimuli. Differences between selectively copying and always copying were hypothesised to stem from working memory requirements rather than the concurrent EF load. No impact of EF load was found on participants’ metacognitive monitoring ability. These results suggest that copying decisions are underpinned by the use of executive functions even at a very basic level, and that selective copying strategies are more challenging than a combination of their component parts. We found minimal evidence that selective copying strategies relied on executive functions any more than consistent copying or deviation. However, task experience effects suggested that ceiling effects could have been masking differences between conditions which might be apparent in other contexts, such as when observed information must be retained in memory.

Reality, Information, and Information Observer

Up to now both information and its connection to reality do not have scientifically conclusive definitions, nor implicit origin. They emerge in observing multiple impulses’ interactive yes‒no actions modeling information bits. Each memorized bit of information binds a reversible microprocess with an irreversible information macroprocess along a multi-dimensional observing process. Interactive information dynamics assemble geometrical and information structures of observer cognition and intelligence in double spiral rotating code. Information Path Functional integrates multiple interactive dynamics in finite bits which observe and measure reality. The time and space of reality exists only as discrete units of information. The observed information process, creating its Observer, connects reality, information, and the Observer.

Reality, Information, and Information Observer

Up to now both information and its connection to reality do not have scientifically conclusive definitions, nor implicit origin. They emerge in observing multiple impulses’ interactive yes‒no actions modeling information bits. Each memorized bit of information binds a reversible microprocess with an irreversible information macroprocess along a multi-dimensional observing process. Interactive information dynamics assemble geometrical and information structures of observer cognition and intelligence in double spiral rotating code. Information Path Functional integrates multiple interactive dynamics in finite bits which observe and measure reality. The time and space of reality exists only as discrete units of information. The observed information process, creating its Observer, connects reality, information, and the Observer.