A time series projection model of online seasonal demand for American wine and potential disruption in the supply channels due to COVID-19

Purpose This study statistically examines the shifting distribution channels in the American wine industry based on the growth trajectory of sales, seasonality and disruption due to consumers switching to online platforms. The purpose of this paper is to design a model that will have general applicability beyond the wine industry. Design/methodology/approach The research uses regression-based additive decomposition of time series data to predict the trajectory of the market share for the digital distribution channel. The study develops a statistical prediction model using time series data between 2007 and 2020, inclusive, sourced from US Annual Wine Reports and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms databases. Findings The results show an increasing trajectory of wine sales through the online distribution channel with predictable seasonality. The disruptive effects of consumer switching behavior point to a steady increase in sales due both to increasing demand and accelerating switching. Nevertheless, the model shows that bricks and mortar purchases will remain strong and continue to account for the bulk of wine sales. COVID-19 has caused a step function increase in online sales but this should moderate after the crisis subsides and can be tested further. Originality/value This study is original in developing a model for an industry where bricks and mortar sales are growing and are expected to remain strong while there is still identifiable switching to online sales. The wine industry presents a classic case of accelerating switching behavior where there is still a strong franchise for in-store purchases. The model should have general applicability to distribution channels beyond the wine industry where steady growth, marked seasonality and disruptive consumer switching are in evidence.

Tied Goods and Consumer Switching Costs

Proprietary product designs create high switching costs, directly hurting consumers, and hurting firms due to intensified competition.

An Investigation on Consumer Switching Behavior in an Asian Telecommunication Market

The paper investigates the determinants of consumer switching behavior in the Indian telecom industry, overcoming the scarcity of research from emerging economies. The study collected data using a questionnaire instrument directly from the customers and was selected through purposive sampling. Binomial probit regression technique was used for modeling purposes. The study concludes that the critical services, service specification, loyalty, and user engagement-related factors influence customer churn. The study specified the key sub-factors directly influencing these four factors. The findings are presented as a set of four different models. The article is the first exploration of the idea of proposing function-specific models and the use of purposive sampling. The study attempts to provide models that are convenient to administer, require specific data, specific to functional area, economic data collection, and may be used based on the context of an investigation. The paper suggests how to perform a convenient investigation using a small dataset.

Inventory and Ordering Decisions in Dual-Channel Supply Chains Involving Free Riding and Consumer Switching Behavior with Supply Chain Financing

This study introduces a dual-channel supply chain including a supplier and a retailer with capital constraints, in which the retailer can apply for the trade credit financing from the supplier. This work investigates the effects of two typical behaviors, free riding behavior and consumer switching behavior, on inventory, ordering, and sales effort decisions in decentralized and centralized decision situations with stochastic demand. In order to achieve the optimal performance in the centralized system, this research designs a partial buyback contract to coordinate the supply chain. Furthermore, numerical analysis is provided to test the feasibility of the model. The results indicate that in the dual-channel supply chain with the above two behaviors, (1) the optimal sales effort level, optimal order quantity, the optimal offline, and online profits under the centralized decision-making are more than those under decentralized scenario, except for the optimal inventory level; (2) the increase of the offline consumer switching rate will lead to the reduction of the offline order quantity and the offline expected profit and raise the online inventory level and the online expected profit; (3) the increase of the online consumer switching rate will raise the offline order quantity and the offline expected profit but has no significant impact on the online inventory level and the online expected profit; (4) the increase of the free riding coefficient of the supplier, no matter whether in decentralized or centralized systems, will reduce the offline sales effort level, the offline expected profit, and the online expected profit and raise the inventory level. Finally, this work provides some managerial implication.

How do consumers respond to price gaps in private brand agrifood products?

PurposeThere is a range around reference prices, the so-called latitude of price acceptance, where consumers seem insensitive to changes into prices, with these ranges being wider for buyers of private brands. This paper analyses objective price gap between two product alternatives as a main driver of consumer behaviour. Therefore, the authors shed light on whether the price gap conditions consumer-switching behaviour and at what point the price gap triggers a switching pattern.Design/methodology/approachShopping data on two product alternatives of olive oil were obtained from a household scanner panel of Spanish consumers (607 households) with weekly price tracking, and multilevel regression models were performed.FindingsThe results suggest that the price gap has a fundamental effect on the consumers' choice. In this case, up to 1 euro/litre the demand seems almost inelastic; beyond that price gap, the demand for the finer product plummets.Research limitations/implicationsThis study focussed on olive oil products. The research needs to be extended other food products.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to the literature by documenting how the price context measured in terms of a price gap is a relevant stimulus in consumer choices, with a focus on the change in price sensitivity between product alternatives when competing brands are not involved but private brands are.

A Study of Consumer Switching Behaviour in the Indian Context With Respect to Recycled Products

In recent years, the need of every corporation to address the environmental issues has grown multifold. The corporate social responsibility concerns are growing, and it has become an indicator to judge a business performance. In the context of increasing environmental concerns where issues of pollution, generation of wastes, use of toxic substances for packaging, etc. are gaining strong ground, the consumers have also become alarmed and they fully understand the implications of such issues both on nature and earth. The chapter aims to study the behaviour and the change therein of Indian consumers. It is true that all the efforts and policies targeted towards initiative of green marketing cannot be realised if it is not received by the consumers. The chapter proposes to cover the concept of green marketing and its relation to the circular economy, the green marketing practices in Indian context, the attitude and preference of the Indian consumer towards green products, and the switch in the purchase pattern of the Indian consumers with respect to green/recycled products.