Data validation and mesoscale assimilation of Himawari-8 optimal cloud analysis products

Himawari-8 optimal cloud analysis (OCA), which employs all 16 channels of the Advanced Himawari Imager, provides cloud properties such as cloud phase, top pressure, optical thickness, effective radius, and water path. By using OCA, the water vapor distribution can be inferred with high spatiotemporal resolution and with a wide coverage, including over the ocean, which can be useful for improving initial states for prediction of the torrential rainfalls that occur frequently in Japan. OCA products were first evaluated by comparing them with different kinds of data sets (surface, sonde, and ceilometer observations) and with model outputs, to determine their data characteristics. Overall, OCA data were consistent with observations of water clouds with moderate optical thicknesses at low to mid levels. Next, pseudo-relative humidity data were derived from the OCA products, and utilized in assimilation experiments of a few heavy rainfall cases, conducted with the Japan Meteorological Agency’s nonhydrostatic model-based Variational Data Assimilation System. Assimilation of OCA pseudo-relative humidities caused there to be significant differences in the initial conditions of water vapor fields compared to the control, especially where OCA clouds were detected, and their influence lasted relatively long in terms of forecast hours. Impacts of assimilation on other variables, such as wind speed, were also seen. When the OCA data successfully represented low-level inflows from over the ocean, they positively impacted precipitation forecasts at extended forecast times.

Modeling of Nonhydrostatic Dynamics and Hydrology of the Lombok Strait

The long-wave dynamics of the Lombok Strait, which is the most important link of the West Indonesian throughflow connecting the Pacific and Indian Ocean waters, was simulated and analyzed. A feature of the strait is its extremely complex relief, on which water transport creates a field of pronounced vertical velocities, which requires consideration of the nonhydrostatic component of pressure. The work presents a 3-D nonhydrostatic model in curvilinear coordinates, which is verified on a test problem. Particular attention is paid to the method of solving the 3-D elliptical solver for a nonhydrostatic problem in boundary-matched coordinates and a vertical σ level. The difference in transport through the Lombok Strait is determined by the difference in atmospheric pressure over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Based on the results of the global simulation, the role of these factors in terms of their variability is analyzed, and the value of nonhydrostatic pressure in the dynamics of the Lombok Strait is revealed and evaluated. The vertical dynamics of the Lombok Strait are considered in detail based on hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic approaches.

An Investigation of Spiral Gravity Waves Radiating from Tropical Cyclones Using a Linear, Nonhydrostatic Model

A recent study showed observational and numerical evidence for small-scale gravity waves that radiate outward from tropical cyclones. These waves are wrapped into tight spirals by the radial and vertical shears of the tangential wind field. Reexamination of the previously studied tropical cyclone simulations suggests that the dominant source for these waves are convective asymmetries rotating along the eyewall, modulated in intensity by the preferred convection region on the left side of the environmental wind shear vector. A linearized, nonhydrostatic model for perturbations to a balanced vortex is used to study the waves. Forcing the linear model with rotating and pulsing asymmetric heat sources generates radiating gravity waves with multiple vertical and horizontal structures. The pulsation of the rotating heat source generates two types of waves: fast, deep waves with larger radial wavelengths, and slower, secondary waves with shorter radial and vertical wavelengths. The deeper waves produce surface pressure oscillations that have time scales consistent with surface observations, whereas the shorter waves have little surface indication but produce oscillations in vertical velocity with shorter radial wavelengths that are consistent with aircraft observations. Convective forcing that is either not pulsing or not rotating produces gravity waves but they are not as similar to the observed or simulated waves. The effects of varying the intensity of the cyclone, the asymmetry of the forcing, and the static stability of the surrounding atmosphere are explored.

Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls – Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600-member 4D-EnVar-predicted rainfalls

This paper is a continuation of the authors' previous paper (Part 1) on the feasibility of ensemble flood forecasting for a small dam catchment (Kasahori dam; approx. 70 km2) in Niigata, Japan, using a distributed rainfall–runoff model and rainfall ensemble forecasts. The ensemble forecasts were given by an advanced four-dimensional, variational-ensemble assimilation system using the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (4D-EnVar-NHM). A noteworthy feature of this system was the use of a very large number of ensemble members (1600), which yielded a significant improvement in the rainfall forecast compared to Part 1. The ensemble flood forecasting using the 1600 rainfalls succeeded in indicating the necessity of emergency flood operation with the occurrence probability and enough lead time (e.g., 12 h) with regard to an extreme event. A new method for dynamical selection of the best ensemble member based on the Bayesian reasoning with different evaluation periods is proposed. As the result, it is recognized that the selection based on Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) does not provide an exact discharge forecast with several hours lead time, but it can provide some trend in the near future.