ENSO Amplitude Asymmetry in Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Models

Long climate simulations with the Met Office Hadley Centre General Circulation Model show weak El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña phases compared with observations. This lack of asymmetry is explored through the framework of a perturbed parameter experiment. Two key hypotheses for the lack of asymmetry are tested. First, the possibility that westerly wind burst activity is biased is explored. It is found that the observed difference in wind burst activity during El Niño and La Niña tends to be underestimated by the model. Secondly, the warming due to subsurface non-linear advection is examined. While the model exhibits non-linear dynamic warming during both La Niña and El Niño, and thus a contribution to ENSO asymmetry, it is shown to be consistently underestimated in comparison with ocean reanalyses. The non-linear zonal advection term contributes most to the deficiency and the simulation of the anomalous zonal currents may be playing a key role in its underestimation. Compared with the ocean reanalyses, the anomalous zonal currents associated with ENSO are too weak in the vicinity of the equatorial undercurrent and the surface wind driven zonal currents extend too deep.

Transport equations for the normalized nth-order moments of velocity derivatives in grid turbulence

Transport equations for the normalized moments of the longitudinal velocity derivative ${F_{n + 1}}$ (here, $n$ is $1, 2, 3\ldots$ ) are derived from the Navier–Stokes (N–S) equations for shearless grid turbulence. The effect of the (large-scale) streamwise advection of ${F_{n + 1}}$ by the mean velocity on the normalized moments of the velocity derivatives can be expressed as $C_1 {F_{n + 1}}/Re_\lambda$ , where $C_1$ is a constant and $Re_\lambda$ is the Taylor microscale Reynolds number. Transport equations for the normalized odd moments of the transverse velocity derivatives ${F_{y,n + 1}}$ (here, $n$ is 2, 4, 6), which should be zero if local isotropy is satisfied, are also derived and discussed in sheared and shearless grid turbulence. The effect of the (large-scale) streamwise advection term on the normalized moments of the velocity derivatives can also be expressed in the form $C_2 {F_{y,n + 1}}/Re_\lambda$ , where $C_2$ is a constant. Finally, the contribution of the mean shear in the transport equation for ${F_{n + 1}}$ can be modelled as $15 B/Re_\lambda$ , where $B$ ( $=S^*{S_{s,n + 1}}$ ) is the product of the non-dimensional shear parameter $S^*$ and the normalized mixed longitudinal-transverse velocity derivatives ${{S_{s,n + 1}}}$ ; if local isotropy is satisfied, $S_{s,n + 1}$ should be zero. These results indicate that if ${F_{n + 1}}$ , ${F_{y,n + 1}}$ and $B$ do not increase as rapidly as $Re_\lambda$ , then the effect of the large-scale structures on small-scale turbulence will disappear when $Re_\lambda$ becomes sufficiently large.

Nonlinear amplification in hydrodynamic turbulence

Using direct numerical simulations performed on periodic cubes of various sizes, the largest being $8192^3$ , we examine the nonlinear advection term in the Navier–Stokes equations generating fully developed turbulence. We find significant dissipation even in flow regions where nonlinearity is locally absent. With increasing Reynolds number, the Navier–Stokes dynamics amplifies the nonlinearity in a global sense. This nonlinear amplification with increasing Reynolds number renders the vortex stretching mechanism more intermittent, with the global suppression of nonlinearity, reported previously, restricted to low Reynolds numbers. In regions where vortex stretching is absent, the angle and the ratio between the convective vorticity and solenoidal advection in three-dimensional isotropic turbulence are statistically similar to those in the two-dimensional case, despite the fundamental differences between them.

Dynamic Causes of ENSO Decay and its Asymmetry

El Niño and La Niña exhibit asymmetric evolution characteristics during their decay phases. The decay speed of El Niño is significantly greater than that of La Niña. This study systematically and quantitatively investigates the relative contributions of the equatorial western Pacific (WP) and central-eastern Pacific (CEP) wind stress anomalies to ENSO decay and its asymmetry through data analysis, numerical experiments, and dynamic and thermodynamic diagnoses. It is demonstrated that the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) forced by the wind stress anomalies in the equatorial CEP play a dominant role in ENSO decay and contribute to ENSO decay asymmetry, while the forcing by the equatorial WP wind stress anomalies has a small contribution. Diagnoses of the oceanic mixed layer heat budget indicate that anomalous zonal advection term and vertical advection term forced by the wind stress anomalies in the equatorial CEP are the most important dynamic terms contributed to ENSO decay. Both terms in El Niño decay phase are much larger than in La Niña decay phase, resulting in a larger decay speed in El Niño than in La Niña. The contributions of these two terms do not depend on the equatorial WP wind field, confirming that the equatorial WP wind stress anomalies do not act as a pivotal part in ENSO asymmetric decay. Moreover, it is demonstrated that within the equatorial CEP, dominant contribution comes from the wind stress anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific, in which those in the equatorial southern central Pacific play a major role.

Influence of the hypermagnetic field noise on the baryon asymmetry generation in the symmetric phase of the early universe

We study a matter turbulence caused by strong random hypermagnetic fields (HMFs) that influence the baryon asymmetry evolution due to the Abelian anomalies in the symmetric phase in the early Universe. Such a matter turbulence is stipulated by the presence of the advection term in the induction equation for which a fluid velocity is dominated by the Lorentz force in the Navier–Stokes equation. For random HMFs, having nonzero mean squared strengths, we calculate the spectra for the HMF energy and the HMF helicity densities. The latter function governs the evolution of the fermion asymmetries in the symmetric phase before the electroweak phase transition (EWPT). In the simplest model based on the first SM generation for the lepton asymmetries of $$e_\mathrm {R,L}$$ e R , L and $$\nu _{e_\mathrm {L}}$$ ν e L , we calculate a decline of all fermion asymmetries including the baryon asymmetry, given by the ‘t Hooft conservation law, when one accounts for a turbulence of HMFs during the universe cooling down to EWPT. We obtain that the stronger the mean squared strength of random initial HMFs is, the deeper the fermion asymmetries decrease, compared to the case in the absence of any turbulence.

Emergence of representative signals for sudden stratospheric warmings beyond current predictable lead times

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme wintertime circulation events of the Arctic stratosphere that are accompanied by a breakdown of the polar vortex and are considered an important source of predictability of tropospheric weather on subseasonal to seasonal timescales over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and high latitudes. However, SSWs themselves are difficult to predict, with a predictability limit of around 1 to 2 weeks. The predictability limit for determining the type of event, i.e., wave-1 or wave-2 events, is even shorter. Here we analyze the dynamics of the vortex breakdown and look for early signs of the vortex deceleration process at lead times beyond the current predictability limit of SSWs. To this end, we employ a mode decomposition analysis to study the potential vorticity (PV) equation on the 850 K isentropic surface by decomposing each term in the PV equation using the empirical orthogonal functions of the PV. The first principal component (PC) is an indicator of the strength of the polar vortex and starts to increase from around 25 d before the onset of SSWs, indicating a deceleration of the polar vortex. A budget analysis based on the mode decomposition is then used to characterize the contribution of the linear and nonlinear PV advection terms to the rate of change (tendency) of the first PC. The linear PV advection term is the main contributor to the PC tendency at 25 to 15 d before the onset of SSW events for both wave-1 and wave-2 events. The nonlinear PV advection term becomes important between 15 and 1 d before the onset of wave-2 events, while the linear PV advection term continues to be the main contributor for wave-1 events. By linking the PV advection to the PV flux, we find that the linear PV flux is important for both types of SSWs from 25 to 15 d prior to the events but with different wave-2 spatial patterns, while the nonlinear PV flux displays a wave-3 wave pattern, which finally leads to a split of the polar vortex. Early signs of SSW events arise before the 1- to 2-week prediction limit currently observed in state-of-the-art prediction systems, while signs for the type of event arise at least 1 week before the event onset.

Monsoon Surges Enhance Extreme Rainfall by Maintaining the Circulation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones and Slowing Down Their Movement

Extreme rainfall induced by landfalling tropical cyclones (ERLTCs) in China can cause flash floods and other disastrous impacts, so investigating their genesis and mechanism of enhancement has been attracting considerable attention. This study demonstrates that the extreme rainfall of landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) possesses two key properties—namely, maintenance of the LTC circulation and a lagging (slowing down or looping) of its movement, and the monsoon surge can provide a positive contribution to these properties. Specifically, diagnostics show that the low-level cyclonic vorticity and upper-level divergence of ERLTCs are significantly stronger than those of NERLTCs (non-extreme-rainfall-producing LTCs). The continuous intensification of the cyclonic rotation in the lower troposphere before the occurrence of extreme rainfall is a significant feature that distinguishes ERLTCs from NERLTCs. Vorticity budget analysis further shows that the relative vorticity advection term contributes the most to the local increase and maintenance of vorticity in the middle and lower troposphere of ERLTCs under the influence of the southwest monsoonal surge, thus demonstrating that the monsoonal surge favors the maintenance of LTC circulation. On the other hand, the activity of the southwest monsoonal surge is mainly manifested in the zonal wind anomaly, and the corresponding strong westerly transport can significantly reduce the zonal component of the steering flow. As a result, the total steering flow can be weakened, which decreases the northwestward translation speed of ERLTCs, and thus the monsoonal surge favors a lagging (slowing down or looping) of LTC movement. These results reveal the mechanism of influence through which the monsoonal surge affects ERLTCs via its direct impacts on the maintenance of their circulation and lagging of their movement—two distinct evolutionary characteristics.

$m$th-order Fisher-KPP equation with free boundaries and time-aperiodic advection

In this paper, we investigate a $m$th-order Fisher-KPP equation with free boundaries and time-aperiodic advection. Considering the influence of advection term and initial conditions on the long time behavior of solutions, we obtain spreading-vanishing dichotomy, spreading-transition-vanishing trichotomy, and vanishing happens with the coefficient of advection term in small amplitude, medium-sized amplitude and large amplitude, respectively. Then, the appropriate parameters are selected in the simulation to intuitively show the corresponding theoretical results. Moreover, the wave-spreading and wave-vanishing cases of the solutions are observed in our study.