Incomplete recovery to enhance economic growth losses from US hurricanes under global warming

Ongoing global warming is likely to increase the return frequency of very intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyse how this frequency increase may impact on economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that allows us to assess how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane impacts, by temporally resolving the economic response dynamics to individual hurricanes making landfall. We calibrate the model to hurricane impacts in the United States and find that economic growth losses scale super-linearly with the heterogeneity of hurricane impacts. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with event severity which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. Based on two different methods to estimate the frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we estimate annual growth losses to increase by moderate 7% up to 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980-2014. Our modelling suggests that higher insurance coverage may be a viable means to mitigate this climate change-induced increase in growth losses.

IDENTIFYING HURRICANE IMPACTS ON BARBUDA USING CITIZEN SCIENCE GROUND OBSERVATIONS, DRONE PHOTOGRAPHY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY

Barbuda is a low-lying leeward island in the West Indies. In September 2017 Hurricane Irma battered the island with 185 mph winds. Damage to housing and infrastructure was so extensive that all 1800 residents of the island were immediately evacuated post hurricane to the neighboring island of Antigua. Our research is focused on documenting and analyzing the landscape scale changes that took place on the island as a result of the hurricane using a nested methodology. Ground level observations were recorded using a beta version of the Global Learning and Observation to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Observer Land Cover tool. Aerial photographs provide medium scale landscape resolution. Satellite images were processed to provide NDVI values. We describe how nested data at several spatial scales enable detailed description of Hurricane Irma’s impact across the landscape of this 62 sq. mile island. Here we are connecting observations at different spatial scales, using citizen science observations, aerial drone photography and satellite imagery to document and analyze hurricane impacts on the island of Barbuda, eastern Caribbean.

The Short- and Long-Term Impacts of Hurricane Irma on Florida Agricultural Leaders as Early Emergency Responders: The Importance of Workplace Stability

The impacts of hurricane-related disasters in agricultural communities include extensive losses of fields, orchards, and livestock, the recovery of which could span many years. Agricultural Extension Agents (EAs) try to manage and mitigate these losses, while simultaneously overseeing emergency shelter operations. These non-professional emergency responders face numerous potential stressors, the outcomes of which are minimally known. This study examined the short- and long-term medical and behavioral outcome of 36 University of Florida Agricultural Extension Agents within two months and one year after Hurricane Irma, Florida, USA, taking into consideration personal/home and work-related hurricane impacts. Regression analyses indicated that combined home and work hurricane impacts were associated with greater anxiety, depression, and medical symptoms controlling for age and number of prior hurricane experiences within two months of landfall. One year later, depression symptoms increased as well as the use of negative disengagement coping strategies for which stability of the work environment was protective. The findings suggest that advanced training in emergency response, organization and time management skills, time off and temporary replacement for personally impacted EAs, and workplace stability, including enhanced continuity of operations plans, represent critical elements of health prevention and early intervention for this occupational group.