Bank lending in Ukraine and simulation of credit activity by methods of system dynamics

The trends of bank crediting of businesses and households in Ukraine are determined and credit interrelations between subjects of economy by means of methods of system dynamics simulated. The article shows that by end 2020 the main trends in the Ukrainian banking sector are: 1) increasing the dynamics of return on capital, consistently high interest rates on loans until 2019 and their declining dynamics in 2020; 2) declining trends in the dynamics of the share of loans in the assets of commercial banks and the indicator of the financial depth of lending to the Ukrainian economy; 3) predominance of the share of loans to businesses in comparison with the share of loans to households in the loan banking portfolio; 4) faster growth rates of bank loans to households compared to the growth rates of lending to businesses; 5) in the sectoral context, the largest share in lending to business units is accounted for by trade and in lending to households – by consumer lending; 6) half of the loan portfolio of commercial banks are short-term loans for up to one year; 7) the share of non-performing loans in the loan portfolio remains high; 8) gradual reduction of non-deposit sources among the liabilities of commercial banks and their transition to almost full financing at the expense of customer deposits; 9) increase in the share of short-term and decrease in the share of long-term deposit financing of commercial banks. Based on the methods of system dynamics, the authors created a model that allows to trace the relationship between commercial banks-businesses-households, as well as to calculate the forecast volumes of bank loans in accordance with the demand for loans from businesses and households (weighted by the maximum value credit load) and supply of credit resources by commercial banks. From a practical point of view, determining the characteristic trends of bank lending, modeling the interaction of its main participants and determining the volume of bank loans using system dynamics helps to identify key factors influencing the supply and demand of bank credit resources at the present stage of Ukraine’s development and predict future lending dynamics.

Price and value competitiveness of Ukrainian merchandise exports

In economics, "competitiveness" remains a very general concept, and its use in applied research does not allow combining their results and making unambiguous conclusions. This process is also complicated by the fact that the concept is composite and has two components – the price competitiveness and the value competitiveness. The latter can serve as an indicator of qualitative changes in the economy. However, this aspect of competitiveness in developing countries is still underestimated by researchers. Therefore, it is safe to say that today there are no studies, which, with a high level of accuracy, can analyze the value competitiveness of exports in such countries. Economists usually focus their efforts on the analysis of export price competitiveness and one of its main factors, which is the exchange rate of the national currency. However, this approach has limited cognitive capabilities, because the emergence of new centers of global growth, such as China and India is impossible to explain, based only on the high price competitiveness of their exports. The article attempts to solve some accumulated problems in economic science. In particular, based on the results of the analysis of modern definitions of the concept of "competitiveness", the author proposes to expand its content, generalizing the level of conformity of goods (services) to consumer preferences of market participants. This conceptual position is used to deepen the understanding of the basic, value and price competitiveness of products. A method for assessing the dominant role of value (price) competitiveness of exports in ensuring its dynamics has been developed. According to the results of the of methodology, it was found that in Ukraine’s export markets, the cyclical process of alternating growth of value or price competitiveness of this country’s products is mostly interrupted. The reason for this is the high price competitiveness of raw material exports, which is mainly attained due to low wages in the economy. In international markets, value competitiveness is inherent in a relatively small number of product groups of Ukrainian products. These include: insulated wires, cables and other insulated electrical conductors; fiber optic cables; turbojet engines, turboprop and other gas turbines; weapons, ammunition, their parts and accessories; electric heating devices and apparatus; vessels intended for the carriage of persons or goods; tugs and pushers; parts of aircraft; cars for transportation of passengers, cargoes, including self-propelled ones; water steam turbines and other steam turbines; and women's and men's clothing. It is substantiated that from the point of view of finding a new strategy of economic growth for Ukraine, the most urgent issues are not those of intensifying export activities, but those of updating the composition of the largest export commodity groups. Leading positions among them should be occupied by goods with a large share of value added, and increased technological complexity and value competitiveness. The beginning of this process will mean the emergence of new qualitative changes in the economy, and the effectiveness of public policy of economic reform.

Market transformations in the banking sector of Ukraine: a view through the prism of "non-economic" policy

The author analyzes the processes occurring in the banking sector of Ukraine from the standpoint of "non-economic" policy, the theory of which is currently being discussed in modern economics. According to the author, the impact of such a policy does not allow Ukraine to find the optimal strategy for its development, in particular regarding the regulation in the banking sector. One of the reasons for this is the shortage of public administration, which is generally characteristic of countries with economies in transition. It is proved that the NBU's "settlement" of the banking market after 2014 was extremely unsuccessful from an economic point of view. Quantitative estimates of losses suffered by the Ukrainian economy as a result of the campaign to clean up the banking sector during 2014-2016 are presented and analyzed. Through the prism of the typology of "non-economic" policy, the author considers the processes of demonetization of Ukraine's economy and current problems of the national stock market. It is determined that during the reforms in the banking sector, the adoption by the ruling elite, as well as the by the judiciary, of a series of uncalculated and unconsidered decisions poorly consistent with Ukraine’s specific features led to destructive consequences, which affect the long-term development of the country's economy. In addition to economic losses (more than 10 billion USD) and the planting of a ticking bomb under the future lending, the "bankfall" brought about social damage, which is the loss, by the most active segment of the population, of the confidence in the economic strategy proposed by government officials. In recent years, after the crisis of 2014, no banking institutions have been registered, while the number of banks’ separate branches is rapidly declining, along with the corresponding number of jobs. The author concludes that the current practice of selling liquidation assets of bankrupt banks will have a long-term negative effect, because it benefited bad creditors who bought their overdue debt at a discount through third parties, while the most active part of the population (depositors "200+" and small and medium businesses) suffered losses and lost confidence in banks. It is noted that the main reason for Ukraine to choose the "non-economic" policy is the separation of the management decisions from real socio-economic needs. As a result, the economic decisions initiated in this area not only cause material damage, but also hinder this country’s civilizational advancement.

Methodological approaches to estimating the use of tax benefits and the practice of their application

Tax benefits, considering their consequences for the economy and the budget system, are the most controversial element of any tax. Therefore, policy decisions on the introduction of new, continued use or abolition of existing tax benefits should be based on reliable information about their expected or actual effectiveness and efficiency. The purpose of this article is to define methodological approaches to assessing the use of tax benefits as a prerequisite for improving the soundness of tax policy and effectiveness of public administration of the financial system. The article, based on the analysis of Western literature sources, considers methodological approaches to assessing the use of tax benefits in the context of their effectiveness (achievement of goals and fulfillment of the conditions for granting, impact on the behavior of economic agents and results of their activity), efficiency (comparison of benefits and costs) and relative efficiency (comparison of the effectiveness of tax benefits and other policy instruments), as well as evaluation methods and tools. The practical application of these methodological approaches is considered on the example of investment and innovation incentives for corporate income tax and VAT incentives (reduced tax rate on labor-intensive services). The author notes that the assessment of consequences of the introduction of tax benefits can be provided using methods of comparative analysis of the behavior of the beneficiary company before and after the introduction of the tax incentive; survey of the company's managers on how the tax benefit affected certain aspects of their behavior (investment decisions, implementation of R&D, employment and remuneration policies, etc.); and econometric analysis. According to the results of the study, it s concluded that ultimately the choice of an approach to assessing the application of tax benefits, as well as methods and tools of analysis is determined by the available information base in open sources and access to non-public information. In addition, the reliability of the results of evaluation of the application of tax benefits substantially depends on compliance with the requirements and procedures during their implementation, in particular, the definition of objectives and, if necessary, the conditions of their granting, as well as the quality and the completeness of accounting of the provided benefits. The latter, as well as the availability of the necessary information and its disclosure is one of the main problems in assessing the application of tax benefits in countries with transition economy.

Short-term debt of the corporate sector and its impact on the stability of the financial system of Ukraine

The article deals with the economic essence of accounts payable. It is determined that in the process of deformations in the structure of business capital, it acquires the characteristics of a surrogate source of business financing, which in turn creates risks for the stability of Ukraine’s financial system. The authors describe the main trends in the dynamics and structure of accounts payable and define its impact on the growth of debt burden of non-financial corporations in Ukraine at the aggregate level. A comparison of the volume and growth rates of accounts payable in Ukraine and the EU countries is made, which allows to confirm the hypothesis of the introduction of a distorted model of business financing in Ukraine’s corporate sector. The authors point out that one of the reasons for the abnormally high debt dependence in the NFC sector at the aggregate level is the replacement of equity with other current liabilities (including financial loans from associated physical and legal entities), which allowed to establish such a flexible capital structure, which can help rapidly withdraw assets abroad in the event of macro-financial destabilization or other threats of capital loss related to the insecurity of property rights and the prevalence of fiscal voluntarism in Ukraine. The authors conclude that with the overload of balance sheets with short-term debts against the background of a significant reduction in equity leads to a rapid loss of financial stability. At the same time, under the influence of restrictions on activities and other concomitant barriers to doing business due to the global coronavirus pandemic, the financial depletion of the non-financial corporations sector could lead to a wave of corporate bankruptcies. It is concluded that under the influence of narrowing business access to capital in the financial market there is a rapid increase in lending to domestic business by nonresidents, which gives grounds to conclude that in this way domestic business lends itself, using funds previously withdrawn abroad. Further development of these trends not only can be a catalyst for financial imbalances at the level of individual enterprises, but can also provoke a crisis in the foreign exchange market. The authors substantiate that one of the ways to reduce the volume of current debt obligations is to assist the government in transforming the companies’ short-term liabilities into long-term ones. This can be done by converting the companies’ current liabilities into long-term bonds on a voluntary basis using simplified procedures for registration of their issue, and by registering current liabilities to suppliers (for goods and services) as long-term promissory notes.

Foundations for the functioning of institutions for support and development of small and medium entrepreneurship

The article considers the conceptual foundations of the functioning of institutions for support and promotion of the development of small and medium businesses. The author defines the significance of such institutions, and the value of their product, that is, the services for small and medium entrepreneurship (SME), which allows a better understanding of the main functional and applied role and purpose of these entities. Given the lack of trust from the population of Ukraine for government agencies and organizations, the presence of a number of problems in the SME support system, and especially the inadequate legislative regulation of the status and definition of the functions of the main performers of SME development policy, the article notes that this area needs a qualitative institutional change. The study uses the methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, generalization, and induction and tests the methodology of Canvas Business Model strategic planning of the activities of SME support entities. Guided by the principle of functionalism, the author conventionally groups the SME support institutions into five main types: business support funds, business centers, business incubators, business innovation centers, and business associations. For each type of SME support institution, the main functional purpose and, accordingly, the main type of operational activity are specified. There are proposals that allow understanding the essence, the functional and applied role and the mission of individual elements of the SME support infrastructure. In practical terms, they can be used in state purpose-oriented programs to promote the development of small and medium businesses in order to qualitatively improve the final product for SME. The author develops a model of the activity for a typical SME support entity, which is applicable, can be adapted to specific conditions and is flexible over time. Strategic planning of the entity’s activities based on the methodology of Canvas Business Model allows defining both the value of the product (services for SME), as well as the general value of the entity’s activities, which is extremely important in the SME support system. It is emphasized that each institution of the SME promotion infrastructure performs an important social function. The key values recommended following for SME support institutions are trust, partnership, and righteousness.

The factors of post-covid recovery in the growth of Ukrainian economy in 2021-2022

Given the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, the study focuses on the higher risk of negative long-term consequences of the pandemic in developing economies (particularly in Ukraine). This is due to the limited fiscal support of economies in these countries, in contrast to the numerous measures taken by the governments of developed countries to support citizens and businesses during the corona crisis. The devastating long-term effects of the coronary crisis on the economies and populations of poorer countries will continue until governments take steps towards economic recovery and promotion of economic growth. Based on the identification of the main drivers of economic growth in Ukraine in 2016-2019, as well as the generalization of the experience of post-COVID economic recovery in other countries (including Australia, USA, EU, Japan and advanced Asian countries), the study proposes ways to restore Ukraine’s economy and minimize adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The author proposes to promote the recovery of the Ukrainian economy through expanding domestic (both consumer and investment) demand and intensifying innovation-based development. As shown by the analysis of international experience, consumer demand under the pandemic conditions should be encouraged, in particular through the development of domestic tourism; assistance to small businesses in diversifying their sales channels; promotion of demand in the online market. The author points out that in order to promote investment demand it is necessary to emphasize the development of infrastructure, introduction of temporary investment incentives, and transfer of losses received in previous tax periods. It is proposed to intensify the innovative development of Ukraine by creating an environment favorable to the development of small innovative enterprises (startups), increasing research and development costs, and integrating business, education, and research organizations.

Prospects of state support of the development of the biomethane industry in Ukraine until 2040

The paper considers the prospects for the state support for the development of biomethane industry in Ukraine from 2025 to 2040. The main financial incentives for the use of biomass-derived energy are a special tariff for heat from sources other than natural gas, and a feed-in tariff (the auction price in the future). In the EU, biomethane production is gaining ground due to available financial incentives (premiums to the cost of natural gas, and feed-in premiums). The main obstacle to the large-scale spread of biogas (and, accordingly, biomethane) is the high cost of equipment. The amounts of state support for biogas production with its purification to biomethane and supply of the latter to the gas transmission and gas distribution networks under the conditions of biomethane production in the amounts provided by the draft Roadmap for Bioenergy Development in Ukraine until 2050 were assessed. While maintaining the price of natural gas at 2021 prices (EUR 0.24/m3), the need to subsidize biomethane production from 2025 to 2040 can reach EUR 0.263-3.5 billion, on average EUR 16.5-217 million per year. Infrastructure expenditures were not taken into account in the assessment. The possibility of electricity output from biomethane was not considered, as biogas refining to the quality of biomethane requires additional funds. The statutory auction price may be sufficient only for certain types of feedstock and for large biogas plants. The use of biomethane may be appropriate in the transport sector, as biomethane is an "advanced biofuel", and Ukraine already has a relatively extensive network of methane filling stations. Biomethane production in Ukraine will require state support, particularly in the form of direct subsidies to biomethane producers (in the form of premium to the price of natural gas), and in the form of a premium to the auction price. The use of biomethane will partially reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, being also an important element in the decarbonization of sectors using natural gas, replacing up to 0.76 billion m3 of the latter in 2040, which is in line with the global leading decarbonization trends.

Forsight in Ukraine: problems of organization in the context of world practice

The article presents the results of a research on world and European experience of foresight research. Attention is focused on the organization of foresight research and institutional support of foresight in EU countries. The authors substantiate the necessity of expanding the practice of foresight research in Ukraine in the conditions of those changes in the nature of the world economy that occur under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and on the verge of upcoming change in the Kondratiev long cycles. Current trends in the world economy facilitate access to foreign markets, but at the same time create certain risks for national economies. Increasing competition between domestic and foreign producers for many countries means the bankruptcy of domestic enterprises, especially medium- and high-tech ones, which are unable to compete with corporations that are more powerful. Domestic prices for almost all goods increasingly depend on prices in other markets, which can form imbalance between the cost and price of labor and destroy the labor market, increasing migration of the working population, especially those with high levels of human capital, which reduces the country's opportunities in education, science and production and even multiplicatively affects economic growth. In these conditions, it becomes extremely important to determine the guidelines for future economic development and society, which actualizes the whole range of foresight research. For Ukraine, where foresight research is limited, the experience of those countries where foresight has become an integral part of strategic planning is vital. The article is devoted to the study of this experience, which identifies the basic organizational measures of foresight research, the main aspects of foresight institutionalization and the problems that hinder the development of foresight in Ukraine

Assessment of the international competitiveness of the corporate profit tax in Ukraine

The article is devoted to assessing the international competitiveness of the corporate profit tax system based on the approach of the US Tax Foundation, which develops International Tax Competitiveness Index of the corporate profit tax (ICI) and takes into account the level of profit tax rates, cost recovery, tax incentives and complexity of tax law. According to the analysis of the international ranking of OECD countries, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Hungary had the highest ICIs in 2019-2020. The main factors that have had a positive effect on their competitiveness are the low top marginal income tax rate, unlimited loss carryback and carryforward, no restrictions on the list of assets subject to depreciation, as well as the use of accelerated depreciation, which allows companies to compensate for a larger share of the initial value of assets, LIFO inventory or at least inventory by the weighted average cost method, no Patent Box; no tax credit for R&D, and low corporate profit tax complexity. The calculation of the ICI for Ukraine, based on the approbation of the methodological approach of the Tax Foundation, found that in 2019-2020 Ukraine with a total score of 55.07 took 24th place out of 35 OECD countries. The author characterizes the main components of Ukrainian corporate profit taxation in terms of their impact on international competitiveness; in addition, ways to increase ICI are substantiated.