EVALUASI PERFORMA INDEKS MONSUN AUSMI DAN WNPMI DI WILAYAH INDONESIA

Intisari Iklim di wilayah Indonesia sangat dipengaruhi oleh aktivitas monsun Asia-Australia. Variabilitas kedua sistem monsun tersebut dapat direpresentasikan dengan baik masing-masing oleh indeks monsun Australian Summer Monsoon Index (AUSMI) dan Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI). Saat ini, BMKG secara operasional menggunakan indeks AUSMI dan WNPMI untuk memonitor aktivitas monsun di wilayah Indonesia sebagai bahan prakiraan musim. Meskipun banyak literatur menyatakan bahwa wilayah Indonesia merupakan bagian dari sistem monsun Asia-Australia, namun kondisi topografi lokal yang kompleks berpotensi memodifikasi sirkulasi monsun sehingga perlu dikaji performa kedua indeks tersebut sebelum digunakan secara operasional. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menguji performa indeks monsun AUSMI dan WNPMI dalam menggambarkan variasi antartahunan (interannual), variasi dalam musim (intraseasonal), dan siklus tahunan (annual cycle) hujan monsun Indonesia. Hasil penelitian mengungkapkan bahwa kedua indeks memiliki performa yang sangat baik hanya di wilayah dimana indeks tersebut didefinisikan namun kurang baik untuk wilayah Indonesia seperti yang ditunjukan oleh nilai koefisien korelasi yang tidak signifikan dari hasil uji statistik antara kedua indeks dengan curah hujan dari Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pada periode 1981-2010. Selain itu, kedua indeks juga memperlihatkan karakteristik siklus tahunan yang berbeda dengan karakteristik siklus tahunan hujan wilayah Jawa sebagai wilayah kunci monsun Indonesia. Hasil ini mengindikasikan perlunya pendefinisian indeks sendiri untuk memonitor aktivitas monsun di wilayah Indonesia. Abstract The climate of Indonesia is strongly affected by the Asian-Australian monsoon system. The variability of the two monsoon systems can be well represented by the Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI) and the Australian Summer Monsoon Index (AUSMI) respectively. For producing seasonal forecast, BMKG uses the WNPMI and AUSMI monsoon index to monitor monsoon activity in Indonesia. Although most literature states that the Indonesian region is part of the Asian-Australian monsoon system, the complex local topography may modify the monsoon circulation. Hence, it is necessary to assess the performance of the two indices before they are operationally used. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the AUSMI and WNPMI monsoon indices in describing the annual cycle, intraseasonal and interannual variability of the Indonesian monsoon rainfall. The results revealed that the two indices only performed very well in the areas where the index was defined but lack of skill for the Indonesian region because of insignificant linear correlation based on a statistical significance test between the two indices and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall in the 1981-2010 period. In addition, both monsoon indices and Java rainfall showed different characteristics of the annual cycle. These results indicate that it is necessary to define a specific index for monitoring monsoon activity in Indonesia.

The Australian monsoon Part-I : Climatological features and the Asian connection

Climatological fields of several meteorological variables associated with the Australian summer monsoon, as revealed by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, are reviewed in the context of observed weather and climate over the continent and surrounding regions. Inter-hemispheric distributions of pressure, temperature and circulation features suggest a see-saw relationship of the Australian monsoon with the monsoons of Asia during both summer and winter. Computed values of cross-equatorial fluxes of air appear to lend credence to this hypothesis.

Remote influence of the interannual variability of the Australian summer monsoon on wintertime climate in East Asia and the western North Pacific

Anomalous convective activity in the Tropics forced by sea surface temperature (SST) variability exerts significant remote influence that provides a basis for seasonal prediction in the extratropics. In austral summer convective activity exhibits pronounced interannual variability over northern Australia (NAUS), which is, however, unlikely forced by SST anomalies but essentially a manifestation of internal variability of the Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) system. Based on observational data, the present study reveals its significant remote impacts on the wintertime climate in East Asia and the western North Pacific. The anomalous AUSM excites the Western Pacific (WP) pattern, as confirmed through an atmospheric general circulation model experiment. Through this cross-equatorial teleconnection, the enhanced AUSM leads to the strengthening of the East Asian winter monsoon with a colder winter over the Korean Peninsula and western Japan and reduced precipitation over southern China. The Okhotsk sea-ice extent decreases under warm anomalies and weakened offshore winds. The weakened AUSM leads to the same anomalies but with the opposite polarities. Our observational data analysis and numerical experiments reveal that the WP-like anomalies are excited by the propagation of stationary Rossby waves generated by anomalous upper-level divergent wind from NAUS that extends into the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet. The climatological Hadley circulation is essential in this process. The concomitant anomalous diabatic heating over East Asia and feedback forcing by transient eddies along the Pacific stormtrack act to further amplify the WP-like response.

Synchronous climate change between the Arctic and the Asian and Indo-Australian summer monsoon domains at the Younger Dryas termination

<p>The end of the Younger Dryas (YD) was Earth’s last major abrupt climate event and is most vividly preserved in the water-isotope (ice δ<sup>18</sup>O), calcium (Ca<sup>2+</sup>) and methane-concentration (CH<sub>4</sub>) series of Greenland ice cores. Although numerous palaeoclimate records span this transition, surprisingly few have the dating precision necessary to test whether or not abrupt warming in Greenland was accompanied by synchronous climate changes beyond the Arctic. Speleothems, with their exceptional absolute chronologies, are well placed to conduct such a test.</p><p>Here we apply a change-point detection algorithm to new and published speleothem δ<sup>18</sup>O records of the YD from the Indo-Australian summer monsoon and Asian summer monsoon domains to compare the synchronicity of hydroclimate changes across the YD termination. The algorithm, which identifies the age (and its uncertainty) of a regime shift in a time series, was applied to the 13 - 11 ka interval of each speleothem record. The results yield an error-weighted mean YD-termination age of 11.55 ± 0.02 ka BP (2σ), supporting the hypothesis of a closely coupled monsoon seesaw. Analysis of the Greenland NGRIP ice-core δ<sup>18</sup>O and Ca<sup>2+</sup> records on the GICC05 chronology for the same interval produces a YD-termination age of 11.63 ± 0.10 ka BP. Although the NGRIP and speleothem ages overlap within uncertainties, this hints at a possible Arctic lead over the tropics. However, if we apply a correction to the GICC05 chronology based on recent ice-core <sup>10</sup>Be and tree-ring <sup>14</sup>C synchronisation, the change-point analysis gives a NGRIP termination age of 11.57 ± 0.02 ka BP. This revised timing is consistent with the Cariaco Basin greyscale record (11.56 ± 0.02 ka BP). It also brings the NGRIP and Antarctic WAIS Divide ice-core CH<sub>4</sub> records into perfect alignment across the transition. This assemblage of ages from geographically dispersed regions suggests that hydroclimate changes associated with the YD termination were synchronous, at least to within a couple of decades. It also calls for a revision to the onset age of the Greenlandian Stage (the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary).</p>

The Onset of the Indonesian–Australian Summer Monsoon Triggered by the First-Branch Eastward-Propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) often causes the onset of the Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (IASM) over Indonesia and northern Australia. In the present study, a composite analysis is conducted to reveal the detailed IASM onset process and its air–sea interactions associated with the first-branch eastward-propagating MJO (FEMJO) based on 30-yr ERA-Interim data, satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and SODA3 ocean reanalysis. The results distinctly illustrate the phase-locked relationships among the persistent sea surface warming north of Australia, the FEMJO, and the established westerlies. It is found that the SST to the north of Australia reaches its annual maximum just before the onset of the summer monsoon. The oceanic surface mixed layer heat budget discloses that this rapid warming is primarily produced by the enhanced surface heat flux. In addition, this premonsoon sea surface warming increases the air specific humidity in the low-level troposphere and then establishes zonal moisture asymmetry relative to the FEMJO convection. This creates a more unstable atmospheric stratification southeast of the FEMJO and favors convection throughout the vicinity of northern Australia, which ultimately triggers the onset of the IASM. The results in this study thus may potentially be applicable to seasonal monsoon climate monitoring and prediction.