scholarly journals PENDUGAAN PARAMETER MODEl DISTRIBUTED LAG POLA POLINOMIAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE ALMON

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 761-772
Author(s):  
Fitria Virgantari ◽  
Wilda Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Operating Cost ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Forecast Time ◽  
The Impact

The distributed lag model is a regression  model that describes the relationship between the dependent variable of a given period and the independent variables of a certain or previous periods. The model can be used to determine the impact of the independent variable to dependent variables over time and forecast time series data for the next periods. There are two forms of distributed lag model that have been widely proposed in the estimation of distributed lag regression model. The first form  is proposed by Koyck and the second form by Almon. This paper aims to apply the Almon model to examine the effect of  the ratio of BOPO (Operating Cost and Operating Income) to the ROA (Return on Asset) of a government bank based on quarterly data, to estimate its parameters, to examine the feasibility of the model, and to predict the next quarter.  Results shows that distributed lag model is  = 10.110 - 0.078  + 0.015  + 0.026  – 0.045  with Yt is ROA, and Xt is the ratio BOPO  on the 1st quarter until the previous 3 quarters. The model is quite good according to the determination coefficient that is 0.75, no autocorrelation in the model, t test and F test are also significant. Based on the model, the value of ROA ratio next quarter predicted 4.63%. The decrease in profitability ROA ratio is due to an increase in interest expense while interest income can not compensate

scholarly journals Impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1987-2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Oyetunji David Olalere ◽  
Muhammad Nuruddeen Isa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry in Nigeria using time series data from 1987 to 2019. The objective of this research is to establish the Impact of Sales Volume (SAV) and Completely Knocked Down (CKD) in Automotive Industry on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1987- 2019. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) method was used. The findings from the study revealed that Sales volume (LSAV (-1)) at one lag period and Completely knocked down (LCKD) at lag value have significant impact on economic growth while Exchange rate (EXCR) is not significant. Interest rate and inflation rate appear to be statistically significant in determining economic growth at their contemporaneous values. Hence, we conclude that Sales Volume and Completely Knocked Down in Automotive Industry positively impacted on the economic growth in Nigeria over the period under study We therefore recommend that government should encourage an increase in sales volume for the economic growth status to keep enjoying positive contributions to the automotive sector in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Sectoral Investment and Employment Generation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Ismat Nasim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Employment Generation

This study is projected at investigating the influence of Sectoral Investment on Employment Generation. For this purpose, time series data is collected from Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2017. Augmented Dickey fuller test reveals that few variables considered in the study are stationary at level and few at first difference. So, econometric results are estimated using autoregressive and distributed lag model for long run elasticities. Long run co-integrating relationship is established at 2.5 percent level using ARDL bound testing approach. ARDL long run results concludes that Agricultural Investment, Industrial Investment, Services Sector Investment and Trade openness are increasing employment while inflation and tax revenue are seemed to be negatively related with employment of Pakistan in the long run.

scholarly journals Climate Change Driven Food Inflation in Ethiopia?

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Berhe Gebregewergs Hagos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Average Price ◽  
Ceteris Paribus ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Food Inflation

The research dealt with the relationships between temperature variability and price of food stuffs in Tigrai using 84 months collected time series data thereby applied a Univariate econometric tool and finite Distributed Lag Model in defining the variables and outcome of the study. As a result, the econometric regression analysis witnessed that a 1oC temperature rise contributed the average price of food stuffs such as barley price rose up by 80 percent, maize 186 percent, sorghum close to 275 percent, wheat 60 percent, and 170 percent in white Teff over the years, ceteris paribus.

Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalil Jebran ◽  
Amjad Iqbal ◽  
Zia Ur Rehman Rao ◽  
Arshad Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This paper analyzes the effect of terms of trade on economic growth of Pakistan considering annual time series data from 1980 to 2013. This study opted autoregressive distributed lag model for purpose of analyzing short- and long-run relationship. The results reveal significant negative long-run and short-run effects of terms of trade on economic growth. The analyses also indicate significant positive long-run and short-run effects of labour on economic growth. Further, capital stock is influencing positively the economic growth in long run only. We suggest that economic policies may be implemented to deteriorate terms of trade which will further enhance the economic growth of Pakistan. JEL: F13, F43

scholarly journals Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An application of ARDL approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (44) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Hassan Shakil ◽  
Is’haq Muhammad Mustapha ◽  
Mashiyat Tasnia ◽  
Buerhan Saiti
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model

PurposeThe argument whether gold is a hedge or haven is a debatable issue. Mainly, hedge is a class of asset that is negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio on average. On the other hand, a safe haven is an asset or portfolio which is negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio at the time of market turmoil. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to take Saudi Arabia as an example to examine the relationship of gold price in Saudi Arabia with key determinants such as the stock market index, oil prices, exchange rate, interest rate and consumer price index (CPI) by application of the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL).Design/methodology/approachThe ARDL analysis was employed by using six variables based on the application of monthly time series data that were collected from 2011 to 2015.FindingsFrom the present analysis, it has been discovered that gold is useful as a portfolio hedge and as a hedge against inflation because it is not affected by the CPI. External factors, for example, financial crisis, may be harmful to the CPI, thus adding a certain percentage of gold in the investment portfolio may assist in decreasing the level of risk at the time of financial turmoil.Originality/valueBecause gold seems to be a useful portfolio hedge, as well as an inflation hedge, government policies to curb the import of gold may be futile. The present research suggests that policies that directly address the causes of inflation and provide alternative investment opportunities for retail investors may better serve the objective of decreasing gold imports.

scholarly journals Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (05) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alwell Nteegah ◽  
Mansi Nelson ◽  
Moses Owede
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth in Nigeria. In order to achieve the objectives of examining the trend in trade and growth and impact of trade liberalization on economic growth, times series data were sourced and analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL). Findings from the study revealed that oil export and non-oil import impacted positively and significantly on economic growth both in the short and long runs. The results also show that oil and non-oil imports retarded economic growth in both short and long run periods. Specifically, oil import was found to significantly diminished economic growth in Nigeria. Nigeria imports refined petroleum products hence spends huge financial resources to finance its imports. This has affected the economy negatively as funds meant for other developmental purposes are spent on petroleum products importation. Based on these findings, the study suggests increase in oil export by providing conducive environment for oil operations, improvement in non-oil export by diversifying the products base of the economy and building local capacity in oil exploration and refining in order to end petroleum products imports in Nigeria.

scholarly journals The impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-86
Author(s):  
Abubakar Aminu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigated the impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria utilizing the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of cointegration covering the period of 25 years from 1995 to 2019. The findings reveal that education tax and investment in human capital have positive and significant effect on the growth of the Nigerian economy over the sampled period. The paper recommends that in order to boost the economy, Nigeria would need to, among other policy frameworks, provide a suitable environment for ensuring macro-economic stability through effective utilization of income from education tax that will encourage increased investment in human capital in the public sector. In addition to income from education tax, for effective and speedy economic growth and development in Nigeria, the government, beneficiaries (students/parents), employers of labor and other stakeholders in the society should share the responsibility for financing primary, secondary and tertiary education, so as to provide a solid foundation for human capital development. However, as revealed in this paper, the contribution of education tax and investment in human capital is most likely to be realized over a long-run period than in the short term. Keywords: Education Tax; Investment; Human capital; Economic growth

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