Modeling and Preparedness: The Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Outbreak in Provinces of Ecuador

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a novel infectious disease first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan of China, is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease has become a pandemic in just a few months and spread globally with more than 2.89 million cases and 203,000 deaths across 185 countries, as of April 26th, 2020. Ecuador has reported one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in Latin America, with more than 10K cases and 500 deaths in a country of approximately 17 million people. The dynamics of the outbreak is being observed quite different in different provinces of Ecuador with high reported prevalence in some low population density provinces. In this study, we aim to understand variations in outbreaks between provinces and provide assistance in essential preparedness planning in order to respond effectively to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The study estimated the critical level of quarantine rate along with corresponding leakage in order to avoid overwhelming the local health care system. The results suggest that provinces with high population density can avoid a large disease burden provided they initiate early and stricter quarantine measures even under low isolation rate. To best of our knowledge, this study is first from the region to determine which provinces will need much preparation for current outbreak in fall and which might need more help.

Wuhan and Hubei COVID-19 mortality analysis reveals the critical role of timely supply of medical resources

We report that COVID-19 mortality and recovery rates in Hubei Province, China exponentially decays (R2>0.93) and grows (R2>0.95), respectively. A great number of newly supplied medical resources, including more than 42000 aided health workers, over 26000 makeshift beds and 23000 acute care beds, enabled overwhelming patients to be treated effectively in hospitals. This may inform other countries to deal with the coming COVID-19 pandemic when patients are overwhelming the local health care system.

Educating for Change

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework was adopted by every member state of the United Nations in 2015, and, albeit not legally binding, it is arguably one of the greatest steps of humanity to address the identified problems of our time, covering a wide range of topics such as environmental protection, equal opportunities, education, eradication of diseases, famine, poverty, slavery and child labour. Both in terms of its comprehensive scope and its worldwide support, this framework arguably represents one of the most significant international frameworks in human history. Using education related examples from a charity project that is concerned with the development of a local health care system in the African rain forest in Cameroon, this paper illustrates how projects can and should implement key aspects of the SDGs framework pre-emptively within their scope, i.e. at the local level, prior to and in support of the full, legally binding implementation of the framework at the national level. This not only helps to make our world a better place, but also very concretely to reduce project risks, create funding opportunities and make the project’s deliverables more sustainable. The ‘Mahola Project’ (‘Mahola’ means ‘Aid’ in the local Bassa language) was founded in 2013 – following an exploration trip to Cameroon in order to assess the real needs of the population in the deprived area around the village Siliyegue – as a response to meet these needs. The main objective of the project is the development and deployment of a sustainable, integrated, local health care system that is fully aligned with the SDGs and brings about dramatic improvements for the quality of life of the people living there; far beyond ‘just’ providing health care and work opportunities. Education is at the core of the necessary efforts to successfully deliver this system, changing minds and hearts.

GENETIC DIVERSITY OF EPIMEDIUM ELATUM (MORREN & DECNE) REVEALED BY RAPD CHARACTERIZATION

Epimedium elatum (Morren & Decne) is a rare perennial monotypic medicinal herb of Berberidaceae family, endemic to high altitude shady coniferous forests of Northwestern Himalayas in India. Traditionally, it has been used in local health care system for treatment of many ailments. In the present study, a total of ten RAPD markers were used for assessment of genetic diversity in twenty accessions of E. elatum, collected from diverse ecozones in Jammu and Kashmir. Ten primers amplified a total of 100 polymorphic bands with average of 10 bands per assay unit. Primer OPO-07 generated maximum number of bands (15) & produced highest polymorphic information content (0.39), marker index (5.96) and resolving power (8.9), thereby distinguishing E. elatum genotypes. The study showed moderate level of genetic polymorphism in twenty accessions of E. elatum. RAPD data set revealed association between genetic diversity and eco-geographic distribution of most E. elatum genotypes, and thereby proved useful tool for their genetic/molecular characterization. There is an urgent need for developing quick conservation strategies to save its natural germplasm from extinction in the Northwestern Himalayas.

Genetic diversity of Epimedium elatum (Morren & Decne) revealed by RAPD characterization

Epimedium elatum (Morren & Decne) is a rare perennial monotypic medicinal herb of Berberidaceae family, endemic to high altitude shady coniferous forests of Northwestern Himalayas in India. Traditionally, it has been used in local health care system for treatment of many ailments. In the present study, a total of ten RAPD markers were used for assessment of genetic diversity in twenty accessions of E. elatum, collected from diverse ecozones in Jammu and Kashmir. Ten primers amplified a total of 100 polymorphic bands with average of 10 bands per assay unit. Primer OPO-07 generated maximum number of bands (15) & produced highest polymorphic information content (0.39), marker index (5.96) and resolving power (8.9), thereby distinguishing E. elatum genotypes. The study showed moderate level of genetic polymorphism in twenty accessions of E. elatum. RAPD data set revealed association between genetic diversity and eco-geographic distribution of most E. elatum genotypes, and thereby proved useful tool for their genetic/molecular characterization. There is an urgent need for developing quick conservation strategies to save its natural germplasm from extinction in the Northwestern Himalayas.

Kandahar

The author talks about the day he was invited to join one of the doctors on a flight to Kandahar to witness the handover of three Afghan casualties to the local health care system. He first discusses the so-called “humpback day” for one of the doctors, or the day that marked the midpoint of his six-week tour. Doctors arrived and departed unaccompanied, whereas nurses came and left en masse to give way to a brand-new cohort in a formal handover ceremony before their twenty-four-hour decompression in Cyprus. Camaraderie has always been a strong feature of military life and especially in the theater of war. The author then turns to the day's casualties, who were to be dropped off at Kandahar Military Regional Hospital, called Camp Hero. He also narrates his flight back to Camp Bastion together with other passengers that included three insurgents, bound and blindfolded.

The ageing of population as a factor of configuration of demand for hospital care in the Greek region. The case of Kalamata΄s General Hospital

<p>The present paper examines the quantitative<br />characteristics of the burden that a local<br />hospital (General Hospital of Kalamata)<br />bears as a result of the ageing of the local<br />population (Messenia pre- fecture), taking<br />into thorough consideration the excessive<br />demand for hospital care services required<br />by the aged. The analysis is based on primary<br />data of patient flow of the General Hospital<br />of Kalamata during the period 1991-2009.<br />The findings show that there are explicit<br />indica- tions of “hospitalization of the aged’’,<br />while the extent of burden that the hospital<br />system bears from the ageing population of<br />the Messenia prefe-cture depends on the<br />measures used for identify- ing the demand.<br />At any rate, in the present case, it seems<br />that the relationship existing between the<br />ageing population and hospital care services<br />is at a part, a matter of modernization and<br />reformation of the “mix” of care offered to<br />the aged by the local health care system.</p>

Ethnozoological Survey of Animal and Animal Products Used in Traditional Healing Practices in Sokoto State, Nigeria

Nature has provided us with materials that are good sources of medicine. These materials derived from nature have been used by different societies across the world for treatment of various diseases.For example, plants,animalsand minerals substanceshave been extracted and prepared in various forms for treatment of diseases. Researches concerning the use of animals and their derivatives in traditioanal medicine has received very little attention, especially in the Northern Nigeria. Sokoto state is blessed with rich faunal resources yet the number of researches with regards to medicinal animals is very negligible compared to that of plants. With rapid increase in the population of our polygamous society (especially in the rural areas) which often find it difficult to access modern health care facilities, there is the need for complimentary folk medicine that would support local health care system. In the light of the above,animals / animal products used in traditional medicine by the indigenous people of Sokoto have been identified and documented through the use of unstructured questionnaire as the main instruments used for data collection. Six hundred (600) questionnaires were distributed to the surveyed population from different parts of the state. They include: herbalists, hunters, barbers, bone-setters, traditional mid-wives and fishermen. Percentage frequency and percentage fidelity level were used for data analysis. From the survey, twenty two (22) species of animals were found to be of medicinal value. Diseases such as rashes, toothache, nightblindness, mumps, cabuncle epistaxis, yellow fever, eczema, gastrointestinal disorders were found to be curable using these animals or their derivatives.Keywords: Traditionl Healing, Zootherapy, Zootherapeutics, Ethnozoology