Change of Potential Distribution Area of a Forest Tree Acer davidii in East Asia Under the Context of Climate Oscillations

The climate oscillations of the quaternary periods have profoundly affected the geographic distributions of current species. Acer davidii is a deciduous forest tree species mainly distributed in East Asia and China, playing a dominant role in the local forest ecosystem. In order to study the potential changes of geographic distributions of A. davidii in climate fluctuations, we collected the relate geographical distribution data and six climatic variables, using maximum entropy modelling to determine the species distribution. The results showed that the Areas Under Curve (AUC) values of the working characteristic curves of the subjects in the five historical periods were all greater than 0.93, suggesting that the results of maximum entropy modelling were accurate. The simulation of species distribution showed that the suitable area of A. davidii was mainly concentrated in central and northern China in contemporary times. From the Last Interglacial Age (LIG) to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and then to the future (2050, 2070), the distribution area of this species experienced a decrease (LGM~Current; the high adaptability areas of central China became moderate) then an increase (Current~2050, the adaptation areas expanded to South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Siberia), and finally decreased (2050~2070, the suitable areas of South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Siberia shrank returning to China at latitude 25 °N). Compared to the LGM, the area of contemporary suitable area increased. Interestingly, the area of suitable growth range under future climatic conditions (2050) increased by half than before, and the suitable distribution area moved from Midwest China to Northeast China. This study on the change of species distribution can provide a typical case for the model study on the response of plants to climate change in the north temperate and subtropical zones of East Asia. Meanwhile, it can also give a basis for planting planning, species protection, and management.

Modeling of population dynamics of the protected lichen Lobaria pulmonaria (L.) Hoffm. in the Caucasus

Reduction of biological diversity of lichens, reduction of the distribution of rare species and their disappearance due to habitat disturbance are significant problems in the Caucasus. The aim was to study the main patterns of distribution of the rare lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria (L.) Hoffm. and included identification the main abiotic factors affecting the distribution of the species in region. We modeled the current habitats of Lobaria pulmonaria in the Caucasus by using the Maxent method (Maximum entropy modelling). The most suitable for distribution of the lichen were the wettest areas of the southern macroslope of the Greater Caucasus. The center of the predicted range of L. pulmonaria was currently located on the Black Sea coast, in the mid-mountain areas of Krasnodar region, Georgia and Abkhazia. The minimum probability of finding the species predicted in relatively arid areas with a more continental climate in the Central and, especially, Eastern Caucasus. Temperature and orographic (Topographical Ruggedness Index, topographical humidity Index) factors are also important in the distribution of the studied species.

Incorporating habitat suitability and demographic data for developing a reintroduction plan for the critically endangered yellow spotted mountain newt, Neurergus derjugini

In reintroduction programmes for amphibians, data on age structure in hosting populations and choices of life stage or age groups in releasing captive bred individuals are often missing. Similarly, employing site selection procedures for selecting appropriate reintroduction locations are often neglected. Here, we obtained data on longevity, age at maturation, and age structure from skeletochronological data in a free living population of the yellow spotted mountain newt, Neurergus derjugini. A maximum longevity of 13 years for males and 12 years for females showed that N. derjugini is a long living newt with a stable age structure. We also employed maximum entropy modelling, geographic information system, and multicriteria decision analysis to obtain ranked suitability scores for reintroduction sites. Finally, we determined post-release survival rates for different life stage and age groups of N. derjugini including 30 eggs and 60 individuals of six-months old larvae, one and three-year old juveniles, and six-year old adults (15 each) born and raised in a captive-breeding facility and released into mesh enclosures in a selected stream. Over 10 visits to the site before and after overwintering, the survival rates for eggs, larvae, one and three-year juveniles and six-year old adults were 25, 80, 86.66, 93.33 and 53.33 % respectively. Applying survival rates obtained from current experimental reintroductions through a static life table suggest that an optimal release strategy to arrive at a numerical target of 100 adults aged three can be achieved by reintroduction of 650 fertilised eggs and fostering them in meshed enclosures in the selected stream.

Potential distribution and habitat connectivity of Crotalus triseriatus in Central Mexico

The dusky rattlesnake, Crotalustriseriatus, used to be very abundant in many parts of the highlands of central Mexico, but with the increasing human population and associated activities, the rattlesnake habitats and populations have suffered drastic reductions and fragmentation. At the moment, the most important habitat features, associated with the presence of C.triseriatus, the current potential distribution and the landscape connectivity amongst the populations of the State of Mexico and Mexico City, are unknown. Therefore, we used the maximum entropy modelling software (MAXENT) to analyse the current potential distribution and most important habitat features, associated with the presence of the species. The variables with the highest contribution to the model were: proportion of Abies forest, minimum temperature of coldest month, maximum temperature of the warmest month, proportion of Pinus forest and annual precipitation. Furthermore, we found connectivity corridors only within mountain chains. Our results highlight the necessity for conserving the patches of Abies forest and preserving the populations of C.triseriatus and the connectivity of the landscape.

Species distribution models for critically endangered liverworts (Bryophyta) from the Czech Republic: a guide to future survey expeditions.

Using 35 presence-only data samples and five uncorrelated bioclimatic variables, we made species distribution models (SDMs) for 4 species of critically endangered (CR) liverworts from genus Jungermanniales and Marchantiales (Cephaloziella elegans, Leiocolea heterocolpos, Lophozia wenzelii and Riccia papillosa) using the maximum entropy modelling method (MaxEnt). Since we were modelling CR species, only one model proved to be strong enough to be used in the field. However, SDMs can serve as effective and fast tools for acceleration of the discovery of the rare and endangered species. The final model presented in this study can serve as a guide to future survey expeditions, the conservation of the target species and also to help understand their ecology.