Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission

Since the global withdrawal of Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has reported multiple circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks. Here, we generated an agent-based, mechanistic model designed to assess OPV-related vaccine virus transmission risk in populations with heterogeneous immunity, demography, and social mixing patterns. To showcase the utility of our model, we present a simulation of mOPV2-related Sabin 2 transmission in rural Matlab, Bangladesh based on stool samples collected from infants and their household contacts during an mOPV2 clinical trial. Sabin 2 transmission following the mOPV2 clinical trial was replicated by specifying multiple, heterogeneous contact rates based on household and community membership. Once calibrated, the model generated Matlab-specific insights regarding poliovirus transmission following an accidental point importation or mass vaccination event. We also show that assuming homogeneous contact rates (mass action), as is common of poliovirus forecast models, does not accurately represent the clinical trial and risks overestimating forecasted poliovirus outbreak probability. Our study identifies household and community structure as an important source of transmission heterogeneity when assessing OPV-related transmission risk and provides a calibratable framework for expanding these analyses to other populations. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02477046.

Development of a Quantitative One-Step RT-PCR Method for the Detection of Sabin 2 Virus Contamination in a Novel Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Type 2

To control circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus outbreaks, a more genetically stable novel Oral Poliovirus Vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) was developed by targeted modifications of Sabin 2 genome. Since the use of OPV2 made of Sabin 2 strain has been stopped, it is important to exclude the possibility that batches of nOPV2 are contaminated with Sabin 2 virus. Here, we report the development of a simple quantitative one-step reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction assay for the detection and quantitation of Sabin 2 virus in the presence of overwhelming amounts of nOPV2 strain. The method is specific and linear within 8 log10 range even in the presence of relevant amounts of nOPV2 virus. It is sensitive, with a lower limit of detection of 0.2 CCID50/mL (an equivalent of 198 genome copies per mL), and generates reproducible results. This assay can be used for quality control and lot release of the nOPV2.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of routine immunization services in Lebanon

Introduction The global abrupt progression of the COVID-19 pandemic may disrupt critical life-saving services such as routine immunization (RI), thus increasing the susceptibility of countries to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs). Being endemic to several infectious diseases, Lebanon might be at increased risk of outbreaks as the utilization of RI services might have deteriorated due to the pandemic and the country’s political unrest following the October 2019 uprising. The aim of this study was to assess the changes in the utilization of RI services in both the public and private sectors following the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods A self-administered cross-sectional survey was completed electronically, in April 2020, by 345 private pediatricians who are registered in professional associations of physicians in Lebanon and provide immunization services at their clinics. Means of the reported percentages of decrease in the utilization of vaccination services by pediatricians were calculated. As for the public sector, an examination of the monthly differences in the number of administered vaccine doses in addition to their respective percentages of change was performed. Adjustment for the distribution of RI services between the sectors was performed to calculate the national decrease rate. Results The utilization of vaccination services at the national level decreased by 31%. In the private sector, immunization services provision diminished by 46.9% mainly between February and April 2020. The highest decrease rates were observed for oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and hepatitis A, followed by measles and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. The number of vaccine doses administered in the public sector decreased by 20%. The most prominent reductions were detected for the OPV and measles vaccines, and during October 2019 and March 2020. Conclusion The substantial decrease in the utilization of RI as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic requires public health interventions to prevent future outbreaks of VPDs.